MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff
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  MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff
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Author Topic: MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff  (Read 5063 times)
Skye
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« on: October 23, 2018, 06:47:01 AM »





http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsMaristPollMSAnnotatedQuestionnaire1810220915.pdf
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2018, 06:49:03 AM »


Likely R --> Likely R (At least with Hyde-Smith)
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OneJ
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2018, 07:24:57 AM »

This poll also had the general race:

Wicker - 57% RV/60% LV (54%/57% for 3-way)
Baria - 32% RV/LV (30%-31% for 3-way)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2018, 07:27:05 AM »

Espy can definitely make the run off, just like Abrams and anything can happen. That's why TN, AZ, NV are critical to Dems hope for majority😀
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7,052,770
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2018, 07:53:05 AM »

The runoff numbers aren't bad, but Espy's floor in the first round is the high 30s.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2018, 08:52:01 AM »

Remains Safe R.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2018, 09:05:36 AM »


Yes, and there will be a run off and Espy wll be competitive in run off
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RI
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2018, 09:19:32 AM »

McDaniel at 15% is getting close to the range where Hyde-Smith could win outright in the jungle.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2018, 09:41:57 AM »

Mississippi is gonna Mississippi.

I hope this ends some people's delusion that somehow ruby red and racially polarized Mississippi was going to elect a Black Democrat.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2018, 09:42:03 AM »

Toss-up remains Toss-up.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2018, 10:34:23 AM »

This looks very bad for Dems and the format of this election really hurts them. 

If it were a FPTP jungle election with no run-off, Espy could plausibly finish ahead of both Republicans.  And if it were just Hyde-Smith vs. Espy in a normal November election, there's a slight chance the race could slip under the radar and Espy could pull it off with a big enthusiasm gap. 

But in an Espy/Hyde-Smith run-off in December, when this race is getting all the national attention in November, Espy has no chance.  As long as Hyde-Smith finishes in the top 2, it's Safe R.
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Badger
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2018, 02:34:22 PM »

If, big if, McDaniel wins, and equally big if control the Senate isn't determined by the runoff, the race is still likely
R. After all, we all know how the vast majority of those "undecided" voters are going to break by election day.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2018, 02:36:40 PM »

And some people thought this might be competitive. Hyde-Smith will win both rounds easily. Even Texas and Tennessee are better pick-up opportunities for Democrats.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2018, 02:43:57 PM »

And some people thought this might be competitive. Hyde-Smith will win both rounds easily. Even Texas and Tennessee are better pick-up opportunities for Democrats.

She will win the Nov election, the run off is up in the air, you can't say that for sure, just like GA
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2018, 03:32:07 PM »

As expected, safe R unless McDaniel somehow pulls off a miracle and makes the runoff.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2018, 03:32:39 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2018, 04:29:09 PM »

Until run off and Hyde isn't unbearable
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DavidB.
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2018, 04:30:34 PM »

lol

And if it were just Hyde-Smith vs. Espy in a normal November election, there's a slight chance the race could slip under the radar and Espy could pull it off with a big enthusiasm gap. 
No, because this is Mississippi, aka inelastic af.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2018, 04:36:56 PM »


This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".

Mike Espy is definitely more likely to win than Patrick Morrisey at this point.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2018, 04:46:06 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2018, 04:56:14 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.

The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. I’m not saying she’ll lose, but she’s not Romney-level safe.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2018, 05:04:37 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.

The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. I’m not saying she’ll lose, but she’s not Romney-level safe.
Nope. Cindy Hyde-Smith will win easily.

Mississippi is ruby red and racially polarized just like Alabama. Cindy Hyde-Smith is NOT Roy Moore.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2018, 05:10:27 PM »

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".
AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.
The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. I’m not saying she’ll lose, but she’s not Romney-level safe.
You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2018, 05:19:25 PM »

You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.

Yes, everyone’s entitled to their own ratings, and I generally like to be cautious when there’s a lot of uncertainty involved.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2018, 05:21:32 PM »

You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.

Yes, everyone’s entitled to their own ratings, and I generally like to be cautious when there’s a lot of uncertainty involved.
I get that. But saying it's a tossup is really pushing it. Lean R I can understand. And of course you decide on your own ratings. Feel free to make it safe D for all I care. But if you're going to say it here, people will respond to it (and let's be honest, that's what you want too).
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