MI Tarrance Group (Internal): Stabenow +7

[DataGuy]

Debbie Stabenow (D): 48%
John James (R): 41%
Undecided: 7%
Other: 4%

https://johnjamesforsenate.com/new-poll-7/

[Person Man]

That seems about right for an internal. I am guessing Stabenow+12-14.

[libertpaulian]

LOL

[ON Progressive]

LOL

[Skye]

Of course we'll continue to see people arguing about how Jones can beat Stabenow because of this poll.

We are sorely in need of a quality poll, though I don't think it's going to find anything interesting.

[UncleSam]

Beware the ides or March and early polls of Michigan

I’ve been saying for a while that James isn’t losing by twenty and probably isn’t going to lose by double digits. Honestly this is an internal but you can’t fabricate a lot of the under the hood numbers in this poll - great favorables, particularly among undecided voters, a huge surge in name ID, and a big drop in Stabenow’s approvals, particularly among undecided voters.

Again, it is an internal. In a pro-D environment. But right now I think the biggest thing that’ll pull Stabenow over the line is the fact that Whitmer is destroying Schutte. It’s funny because everyone expected James to pull Schutte down, not the other way around.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Safe D. Stabenow wins by about 15 points, around the same margin she’s won by for the past three elections. I do see it possible Whitmer outperforms her.

[Xing]

A certain user will probably take this as the gospel truth and proof that James is "surging"

Anyway, Safe D.

[Skye]

Beware the ides or March and early polls of Michigan

I’ve been saying for a while that James isn’t losing by twenty and probably isn’t going to lose by double digits. Honestly this is an internal but you can’t fabricate a lot of the under the hood numbers in this poll - great favorables, particularly among undecided voters, a huge surge in name ID, and a big drop in Stabenow’s approvals, particularly among undecided voters.

Again, it is an internal. In a pro-D environment. But right now I think the biggest thing that’ll pull Stabenow over the line is the fact that Whitmer is destroying Schutte. It’s funny because everyone expected James to pull Schutte down, not the other way around.

I'd argue that's not the case. The swing in the Midwest against Trump and the fact that Stabenow remains liked doesn't lead to the belief that she'll win just because the gubernatorial race is not close. This isn't a close poll.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A certain user will probably take this as the gospel truth and proof that James is "surging"

Anyway, Safe D.

[Woody]

Trafalgar is actually not that bad of a pollster, considering the fact that they were the only who got it right in 2016. Isn't it a coincidence that the race has been tightening since the debate? More and more people are getting familiar with James and his record as a pilot and as a businessman. This is what James planned from the start, being quiet at the start of the campaign, only to make his name recognition more known to the public near the end of October. James could possibly pull off a Gillespie-like offset in Michigan with partial help from urban blacks. I'm not saying that he's winning, but rather that this race could potentially be the biggest surprise of the night.

[ON Progressive]

Trafalgar is actually not that bad of a pollster, considering the fact that they were the only who got it right in 2016. Isn't it a coincidence that the race has been tightening since the debate? More and more people are getting familiar with James and his record as a pilot and as a businessman. This is what James planned from the start, being quiet at the start of the campaign, only to make his name recognition more known to the public near the end of October. James could possibly pull off a Gillespie-like offset in Michigan with partial help from urban blacks. I'm not saying that he's winning, but rather that this race could potentially be the biggest surprise of the night.

Are you just going to ignore the political scientific literature that says black voters don’t shift at all if the GOP candidate is black?

[Gass3268]

Trafalgar is actually not that bad of a pollster, considering the fact that they were the only who got it right in 2016. Isn't it a coincidence that the race has been tightening since the debate? More and more people are getting familiar with James and his record as a pilot and as a businessman. This is what James planned from the start, being quiet at the start of the campaign, only to make his name recognition more known to the public near the end of October. James could possibly pull off a Gillespie-like offset in Michigan with partial help from urban blacks. I'm not saying that he's winning, but rather that this race could potentially be the biggest surprise of the night.

1. This isn't Trafalgar.
2. Trafalgar has been bad since 2016. They were off by a ton in VA-Gov and AL-Sen.

[Woody]

Either way this race has been tightening. Don't be surprised on election night if Stabenow is in a neck to neck fight for her political career.

[Xing]

Oh, we should assume every state will vote the way it did in 2016? Congratulations, Governors Gonzalez, Jealous, Halquist, and Kelly! And I guess posters claiming this are conceding that Senator Rosen is inevitable.

[Seriously?]

Either way this race has been tightening. Don't be surprised on election night if Stabenow is in a neck to neck fight for her political career.

I will be. Even as a Republican as much as I like Mr. James, this race is only on the periphery of being actually competitive (aka likely D instead of safe D). For better or worse, Stabenow should win. An internal showing you "only" down 7 points means that it's a double-digit lead for your opponent.

[Woody]

Oh, we should assume every state will vote the way it did in 2016? Congratulations, Governors Gonzalez, Jealous, Halquist, and Kelly! And I guess posters claiming this are conceding that Senator Rosen is inevitable.

All I'm saying is that the momentum is with James at the moment, just like President Trump's surge in the last few weeks of the election.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

A certain user will probably take this as the gospel truth and proof that James is "surging"

Anyway, Safe D.

lmao are you referring to me

Anyway if Stabenow has a severe scandal before Nov 6...who knows?

Even if my man JJ doesn't make it, he should try to oust Gary Peters in 2020 when Trump wins Michigan at bigger margins.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A certain user will probably take this as the gospel truth and proof that James is "surging"

Anyway, Safe D.

lmao are you referring to me

Anyway if Stabenow has a severe scandal before Nov 6...who knows?

Even if my man JJ doesn't make it, he should try to oust Gary Peters in 2020 when Trump wins Michigan at bigger margins.

You’re such a meme.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Beware the ides or March and early polls of Michigan

I’ve been saying for a while that James isn’t losing by twenty and probably isn’t going to lose by double digits. Honestly this is an internal but you can’t fabricate a lot of the under the hood numbers in this poll - great favorables, particularly among undecided voters, a huge surge in name ID, and a big drop in Stabenow’s approvals, particularly among undecided voters.

Again, it is an internal. In a pro-D environment. But right now I think the biggest thing that’ll pull Stabenow over the line is the fact that Whitmer is destroying Schutte. It’s funny because everyone expected James to pull Schutte down, not the other way around.

You've also been saying for months that Schuette would win, lol.

[Xing]

A certain user will probably take this as the gospel truth and proof that James is "surging"

Anyway, Safe D.

lmao are you referring to me

Anyway if Stabenow has a severe scandal before Nov 6...who knows?

Even if my man JJ doesn't make it, he should try to oust Gary Peters in 2020 when Trump wins Michigan at bigger margins.

I wasn't talking about you, but thanks for the laughs anyway, your posts truly brighten my day.

[IceSpear]

If you feel compelled to release an internal showing you down 7 points, you’re probably not in a position you want to be in

[Politician]

I look forward to the pleasure of Stabenow winning by 15+ points.

[MT Treasurer]

Why would anyone release this? Anyway, it’s an internal, but I *do* believe he’ll do better than Schuette, which is really not saying much though.

[KingSweden]

Why would anyone release this? Anyway, it’s an internal, but I *do* believe he’ll do better than Schuette, which is really not saying much though.

I mean his campaign hasn’t been a comedy of errors in the way Schuette’s has been so I see this as likely