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Author Topic: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6  (Read 602 times)
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
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« on: October 23, 2018, 03:38:09 pm »

https://twitter.com/Nat_Herz/status/1054826431413313536

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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2018, 03:38:30 pm »

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2018, 03:39:13 pm »

Interesting that Walker actively supporting Begich would actively hurt the latter.

Anyway, Safe R > Lean R, closer to Tossup than Likely.
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"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2018, 03:40:19 pm »

Huh.

*Maybe* this will be a race.
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2018, 03:40:36 pm »

lol decimals

In all seriousness, if another poll confirms it's getting closer I'll move this race to Lean R, but I still have difficulty seeing Begich close the gap.
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2018, 03:55:51 pm »

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2018, 03:59:19 pm »

Dunleavy was never going to win a two-way race in a landslide, but Id still call this Lean R, Dunleavy by 5 or 6.
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2018, 04:00:23 pm »

That seems about right. Lean R.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbedk
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2018, 04:01:47 pm »

Ivan Moore tends to be dem biased so Likely R
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2018, 04:30:31 pm »

Dems don't need AK, it's not redistricting, focus on GA and FL and OH
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2018, 04:33:15 pm »

D E C I M A L S
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2018, 05:21:38 pm »

I may move this to Lean R, but if Dunleavy is this close to 50%, it's hard to see how he loses.
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2018, 05:27:58 pm »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201282.0
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yeah_93
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2018, 05:46:15 pm »

This being AK, I wouldn't rule out a Begich win. Though Walker's presence in the ballot may be his doom in a really close race.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2018, 06:14:24 pm »

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.

Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place.
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2018, 06:20:35 pm »

If only.
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2018, 06:42:46 pm »

Um, why are we talking about a purely hypothetical poll based on the premise that Walker dropped out and backed begich?  It's not like this is about to happen.
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2018, 07:16:14 pm »

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.

Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place.

By that logic no race is safe, because almost any candidate who got hit with a Roy Moore level scandal would lose.
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2018, 07:19:46 pm »

Dems don't need AK, it's not redistricting, focus on GA and FL and OH

State redistricting matters, too, you know.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2018, 07:20:50 pm »

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.

Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place.

By that logic no race is safe, because almost any candidate who got hit with a Roy Moore level scandal would lose.

Meh, I don't know. Moore vs. Jones was always going to be competitive - as shown by the 2012 supreme Court race, AL just has a profound dislike of Moore that doesn't really apply to any other Republican.
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