NV Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: UTDH +6

[Zaybay]

You have to give Trump credit here. Not only did he flawlessly orchestrate the Kavanaugh nomination near the midterms to motivate his base, he solidified TN, TX and ND with the Kavanaugh debacle. Not only has the republicans successfully defended their territory, but they have gone on the offense around the country putting critical democrat funds to non-competitive seats, and has given Heller the momentum and a fighting chance to survive this wave year.

The data has show-....never mind. Its pointless to argue at this point.

[Sir Mohamed]

Heck was leadinding around this time during the election, I wouldn't trust this poll, until final weakend

Heck lost it because he didn't stuck with Trump. Rubio in Florida for example stuck to his Endorsement and never wavered.

BTW,

FOX NEWS will apparently also have a NV Poll out this evening showing Heller ahead. The only Poll where Rosen is leading is the PPP garbarge Poll.

You are right! Heck lost the state cause he didnt stick to Trump, just like how Trump lost the state because he didnt stick to Trump!....wait a second...

Trump actually won NV, Crooked H only got it because of illegals pouring over from Commiefornia...

[Roronoa D. Law]

[Seriously?]

I don't get this Atlas meme that a challenger should be embarrassed if they lose to an incumbent. Incumbents win more than 9 times out of 10 in most election years.

Nevada is one state that seems to keep their Senate incumbents running for reelection. How many times was Harry Reid "doomed," but managed to hold onto his seat? There's zero shocks here if Heller holds on and Rosen has nothing to be embarrassed about if she loses.

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It's still a tossup either way. Rosen should be embarrassed if she loses.

[IceSpear]

I don't get this Atlas meme that a challenger should be embarrassed if they lose to an incumbent. Incumbents win more than 9 times out of 10 in most election years.

Nevada is one state that seems to keep their Senate incumbents running for reelection. How many times was Harry Reid "doomed," but managed to hold onto his seat? There's zero shocks here if Heller holds on and Rosen has nothing to be embarrassed about if she loses.

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It's still a tossup either way. Rosen should be embarrassed if she loses.

It's because Atlas is assuming there will be a massive blue wave where Democrats win everything...except Nevada. Sound familiar?

[wbrocks67]

Heck was leadinding around this time during the election, I wouldn't trust this poll, until final weakend

Heck lost it because he didn't stuck with Trump. Rubio in Florida for example stuck to his Endorsement and never wavered.

BTW,

FOX NEWS will apparently also have a NV Poll out this evening showing Heller ahead. The only Poll where Rosen is leading is the PPP garbarge Poll.

How do you know what Fox is gonna publish later today?

[Seriously?]

I don't get this Atlas meme that a challenger should be embarrassed if they lose to an incumbent. Incumbents win more than 9 times out of 10 in most election years.

Nevada is one state that seems to keep their Senate incumbents running for reelection. How many times was Harry Reid "doomed," but managed to hold onto his seat? There's zero shocks here if Heller holds on and Rosen has nothing to be embarrassed about if she loses.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's still a tossup either way. Rosen should be embarrassed if she loses.

It's because Atlas is assuming there will be a massive blue wave where Democrats win everything...except Nevada. Sound familiar?

I'm seeing more of a normal election than a blue or red wave at this point at least. Republicans gain in Senate only because of a course correction from the 2012 Obama class up for reelection.

Only question is whether there will be enough typical out-party midterm seats (in this case Dem gains) to actually take the House in any effective kind of way. A few seat majority for Rs or Ds (which is looking increasingly likely) is going to be very difficult to whip for either side.

[Zaybay]

Heck was leadinding around this time during the election, I wouldn't trust this poll, until final weakend

Heck lost it because he didn't stuck with Trump. Rubio in Florida for example stuck to his Endorsement and never wavered.

BTW,

FOX NEWS will apparently also have a NV Poll out this evening showing Heller ahead. The only Poll where Rosen is leading is the PPP garbarge Poll.

How do you know what Fox is gonna publish later today?

If Fox is publishing polls, they will probably do the thing where they do 10 states all in one.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why does anyone still take Reuters/Ipsos polls seriously?

[DrScholl]

Heck was leadinding around this time during the election, I wouldn't trust this poll, until final weakend

Heck lost it because he didn't stuck with Trump. Rubio in Florida for example stuck to his Endorsement and never wavered.

BTW,

FOX NEWS will apparently also have a NV Poll out this evening showing Heller ahead. The only Poll where Rosen is leading is the PPP garbarge Poll.

PPP has a strong record. It's best to believe them over a poll that didn't even poll in Spanish or a mystery poll that hasn't even been released (or only exists in someone's head).

[MT Treasurer]

Believable. Heller is an absurdly strong rock star who’s certainly not going to lose to an Akin-tier candidate like Jacky Rosen. I think this race (just like MT-SEN) is pretty overhyped, wouldn’t be surprised if the DSCC decided to triage Wacky Jacky today.

[libertpaulian]

Believable. Heller is an absurdly strong rock star who’s certainly not going to lose to an Akin-tier candidate like Jacky Rosen. I think this race (just like MT-SEN) is pretty overhyped, wouldn’t be surprised if the DSCC decided to triage Wacky Jacky today.

Think Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's Megacoattails are long enough to help Lovable Laxalt?

[Devout Centrist]

>online only
>no Spanish option

Great job, guys, A+ poll

[Senator Incitatus]

I don't get this Atlas meme that a challenger should be embarrassed if they lose to an incumbent. Incumbents win more than 9 times out of 10 in most election years.

Nevada is one state that seems to keep their Senate incumbents running for reelection. How many times was Harry Reid "doomed," but managed to hold onto his seat? There's zero shocks here if Heller holds on and Rosen has nothing to be embarrassed about if she loses.

What the hell? Incumbents win 9 times out of 10 because 8 times out of 10 they don't face a serious challenge. For every Heller, there's a Tom Carper or Sheldon Whitehouse or Deb Fischer or John Barrasso.

This is a competitive election, and a candidate who loses a competitive election should take stock of their own flaws. Don't act like all incumbents are made equally.

[MT Treasurer]

Think Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's Megacoattails are long enough to help Lovable Laxalt?

Laxalt was already going to win anyway because of his family name and the fact that NV is pretty red down ballot tbh, but with Dirty Dean at the top of the ticket he’s guaranteed to win.

[Tender Branson]

This poll (and most others showing a Heller-lead) could be wrong ...

Here's why:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-10/2018_state_topline_-_nevada_final_october.pdf

Among all adults, Rosen leads 38-37 with leaners. But among likely voters, she's down 44-49.

That's because only 76% of Democrats say they are "certain" to vote, but 83% of Republicans and 62% of Independents (Rosen actually leads among Indys by 52-19 with leaners).

That is not something that is supported by the early voting numbers, where Democrats seem to have a higher enthusiasm in NV than Republicans, but we'll see ...

[IceSpear]

Think Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's Megacoattails are long enough to help Lovable Laxalt?

Laxalt was already going to win anyway because of his family name and the fact that NV is pretty red down ballot tbh, but with Dirty Dean at the top of the ticket he’s guaranteed to win.

NV is red at all levels. Hillary only won because of voter fraud and illegals (which is why all the polls are always wrong there.)

[Ebsy]

Think Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's Megacoattails are long enough to help Lovable Laxalt?

Laxalt was already going to win anyway because of his family name and the fact that NV is pretty red down ballot tbh, but with Dirty Dean at the top of the ticket he’s guaranteed to win.

lol

[libertpaulian]

Think Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's Megacoattails are long enough to help Lovable Laxalt?

Laxalt was already going to win anyway because of his family name and the fact that NV is pretty red down ballot tbh, but with Dirty Dean at the top of the ticket he’s guaranteed to win.

NV is red at all levels. Hillary only won because of voter fraud and illegals (which is why all the polls are always wrong there.)

Yup.  Republicans are going to win every single seat there.  Every single vote Wacky Jacky gets is the result of fraud, including her own.

[MillennialModerate]

Someone remind me who called me a joke for calling this Lean R?

[MT Treasurer]

Someone remind me who called me a joke for calling this Lean R?

You are. It’s not a Lean R race, unless the big red wave is real. Reuters is trash.

[MillennialModerate]

Someone remind me who called me a joke for calling this Lean R?

You are. It’s not a Lean R race, unless the big red wave is real. Reuters is trash.

Agreed Reuters is trash, they had Beto winning which unfortunately we all know isn’t true.

BUT other polls have Heller winning too.

[Xing]

Someone remind me who called me a joke for calling this Lean R?

You are. It’s not a Lean R race, unless the big red wave is real. Reuters is trash.

Agreed Reuters is trash, they had Beto winning which unfortunately we all know isn’t true.

BUT other polls have Heller winning too.

You mean like PPP, which was pretty much spot on in 2016?

[IceSpear]

JUNK POLL!

It moves to Lean R, every day more and more

Lean R.

Someone remind me who called me a joke for calling this Lean R?

https://youtu.be/3HPcIiLjL70

This may be one of those threads that will be funny to bump and look at after Election Day.

Yep.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I don’t see how you can still justify calling NV a "swing state", especially in a Toss-up or Lean D election, but I’m sure we’ll get a ton of Trump +2-6 polls of NV-PRES in 2020, with Atlas bedwetting and predictions of a Democratic wave everywhere except NV (and NH) ensured.