GA-NBC/Marist: Kemp +1

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1055202469578448896

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R

[libertpaulian]

Leans Runoff, which helps Kemp a bit.

[henster]

Kemp is not going to get 11% of the black vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R

Runoff

[libertpaulian]

Kemp is not going to get 11% of the black vote.

lol, wait, what?!  Yeah, this poll's got a couple flaws in it.

[Zaybay]

looks like a runoff, but I cannot draw a conclusion from there. In fact, it just looks like it will be a bigger tossup for the runoff.

[new_patomic]

Kemp is not going to get 11% of the black vote.

Yeah.

These are toss up numbers though given the hard inelastic republican tilt of Georgia, I'd say tilt-r.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Blacks only made up 25% of the LIKELY VOTERS polled for this and Abrams will easily clear 90% of the black vote. Trash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

looks like a runoff, but I cannot draw a conclusion from there. In fact, it just looks like it will be a bigger tossup for the runoff.

VT, is gonna be technically a runoff, too. Due to the fact, if Scott doesn't reach 50% and Democratic controlled legislature will install the Democratic

[libertpaulian]

Blacks only made up 25% of the LIKELY VOTERS polled for this and Abrams will easily clear 90% of the black vote. Trash.

I don't see how Kemp clears 40% with 18-29s, either.

It's nice to see her breaking 40% with non-college and 60 and up, though.

[henster]

She's getting 31% of white voters here only reason she's trailing is the wonky black vote #'s.

[Aurelio21]

Blacks only made up 25% of the LIKELY VOTERS polled for this and Abrams will easily clear 90% of the black vote. Trash.

This makes perfectly sense as Marist estimates the effect of Mr Kemp's voter suppression tactics (Perfect match applied to minority voters, discarding VBM, purging the rolls of minority voters).

[libertpaulian]

She's getting 31% of white voters here only reason she's trailing is the wonky black vote #'s.

If she gets 31% of the white vote on Election Day, she's got this thing in the bag.  There's no way she underperforms Obama with the black vote, especially with Drumpf sitting in the White House.

[Person Man]

What was the last one at?

[Zaybay]

Looks like Marist/NBC expected y'all's criticism:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1055205995650211846

[Skye]

It's a tossup. But I'd say it leans towards a runoff, so who knows after that.

[Scottholes 2.0]

It's amazing how red Georgia (and some other southern states) still is despite being very diverse. Voter suppression is alive and well in that state.

[Xing]

Right now, it's definitely looking like there will be a runoff, and I'm guessing that it'll be a nailbiter for Kemp, but Abrams still has a chance.

[libertpaulian]

This could very well end up being the IL-GOV 2014 of the cycle.  The dominant party in the state leads in most of the polls, but the polls fail to capture the demographics in favor of the out-party (in Rauner's case, it was moderate collar county voters who came home to their ancestral party; in Abrams' case, it's suburban rebels against Trump, as well as minority and youth voters who normally don't vote in mid-terms, or even any election at all).

[Senator Incitatus]

Lean/Likely Runoff,  Likely R

[Progressive Pessimist]

Right now, it's definitely looking like there will be a runoff, and I'm guessing that it'll be a nailbiter for Kemp, but Abrams still has a chance.

[Adam Griffin]

As usual, don't trust or read into crosstabs too much.

• Kemp isn't getting 11% of the black vote
• Abrams isn't getting 31% of the white vote
• Black voters are gonna be more than 25% of voters

Shift those elements to where they should be and the top-lines are basically the same, however.

[junior chįmp]

I think Mein Kemp will lose due to pollsters underestimating minority turnout on election day

[IceSpear]

Stop polling Georgia. We know it's just going to be a tie or Kemp +1-2 every time.