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  CA-PPIC: Newsom +11
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Author Topic: CA-PPIC: Newsom +11  (Read 920 times)
Interlocutor
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« on: October 25, 2018, 03:02:42 am »
« edited: October 25, 2018, 01:18:56 pm by Interlocutor »

PPIC poll (Oct 12-21,  last poll was Sept 9-18)


Governor
Gavin Newsom:         49%   (-2)
John Cox:                 38%    (-1)
Undecided/No vote:   12%   (+2)


#NewsomUnder50 (Getting that out of the way)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 05:59:57 am »

What is it with CA that their polls are consistently wonky? Is it that hard to poll?
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Ishan
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2018, 06:16:42 am »

What is it with CA that their polls are consistently wonky? Is it that hard to poll?
CA is big
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2018, 08:34:54 am »

Junk poll!

Well, Cox might get 38%.
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2018, 08:55:41 am »

Cox is only losing because Trump is president/Trumpism. In a Clinton midterm, this would have flipped because Clinton midterm.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 09:58:29 am »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 10:26:24 am »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.

Well, we'll see in 12 days. But something tells me you probably don't want to die on the "Newsom only wins by 11 points" hill, lol.

By the way, PPIC also said Obama would win California by 12 points when he won it by 23, so it would hardly be insane and unprecedented for them to have a big miss.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 10:29:21 am »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.

Well, we'll see in 12 days. But something tells me you probably don't want to die on the "Newsom only wins by 11 points" hill, lol.

By the way, PPIC also said Obama would win California by 12 points when he won it by 23, so it would hardly be insane and unprecedented for them to have a big miss.
It's called undecideds. I doubt he only wins by 11. Again it's called undecideds. If 2/3 go to Newsom he still wins by like 16-17.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 10:33:19 am »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.

Well, we'll see in 12 days. But something tells me you probably don't want to die on the "Newsom only wins by 11 points" hill, lol.

By the way, PPIC also said Obama would win California by 12 points when he won it by 23, so it would hardly be insane and unprecedented for them to have a big miss.
It's called undecideds. I doubt he only wins by 11. Again it's called undecideds. If 2/3 go to Newsom he still wins by like 16-17.

Well yeah, that's what I said in my initial post. It wouldn't surprise me if Cox got 38%.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2018, 12:34:43 am »

"Soft Tilt D" -Bagel, probably
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Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2018, 03:16:25 pm »


What are you talking about? Safe D, nothing to see here.
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2018, 03:27:03 pm »

#NewsonUnder50
#CaliforniaGoingBackToIt'sReaganiteRoots
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2018, 04:07:06 am »

Either this race is really closer than expected or these polls are complete nuts. The latter seems more likely. Newsom should break 60%.
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