TX UT/Tribune: Cruz +6
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  TX UT/Tribune: Cruz +6
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Author Topic: TX UT/Tribune: Cruz +6  (Read 2604 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2018, 08:49:41 AM »

Lean R. Cruz probably has this, but Beto can win an upset.


Despite this poll, Beto is campaigning in TX and this isn't the end to be all. FL, NV, TX, and AZ underestimate Black and Latino strength. Even in OH GOV, McConnell has a 25% approval and Trump is ethically challenged, in a Dem wave year

What? This is the most weird post I ever read on this forum. A high quality #analysis fully on topic of the thread.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2018, 09:07:19 AM »

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2018, 09:14:31 AM »

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.
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User157088589849
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2018, 09:18:34 AM »

Texas is more likely to cote democrat than California is to vote Republican. The 2020 nominee must campaign here not just for money but to keep the grassroots motivated. It will happen.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2018, 09:31:30 AM »

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?

We’ve gotten more than enough polls of this race showing Cruz with a mid to (more often) high single-digit lead and–more importantly–above 50%, while O'Rourke has only led in like two out of 30 polls of this race, and those were junk polls anyway (Reuters and TX Lyceum, IIRC?). Even Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Cruz with a consistent advantage in this race. Barring a Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, his seat isn’t going to flip, and I maintain that Heitkamp and Bredesen are more likely to win than O'Rourke.
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Skye
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« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2018, 09:33:50 AM »

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?

We’ve gotten more than enough polls of this race showing Cruz with a mid to (more often) high single-digit lead and–more importantly–above 50%, while O'Rourke has only led in like two out of 30 polls of this race, and those were junk polls anyway (Reuters and TX Lyceum, IIRC?). Even Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Cruz with a consistent advantage in this race. Barring a Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, his seat isn’t going to flip, and I maintain that Heitkamp and Bredesen are more likely to win than O'Rourke.

Pretty much.

Barring some unforeseen development in these final days, Cruz is probably going to be reelected.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2018, 09:40:04 AM »

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?

We’ve gotten more than enough polls of this race showing Cruz with a mid to (more often) high single-digit lead and–more importantly–above 50%, while O'Rourke has only led in like two out of 30 polls of this race, and those were junk polls anyway (Reuters and TX Lyceum, IIRC?). Even Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Cruz with a consistent advantage in this race. Barring a Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, his seat isn’t going to flip, and I maintain that Heitkamp and Bredesen are more likely to win than O'Rourke.

MT-Sen is tilt D or toss-up, although I think Tester will win reelection.

Larry Hogan didn't lead single poll in 2014 except the very last one and still won an upset. Not saying this is likely to happen this time, but single-digit leads are no reason to stop polling because "it's over". Trendlines matter equally, especially in the final weeks and days.
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History505
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« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2018, 09:44:29 AM »

Cruz advantage, with a chance of an upset if O'Rourke can get many to turn out for him.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2018, 09:59:28 AM »

TN and MS b and TX are tilt R races, but upsets can happen. Just like IN, WI and Pa we're tilt D and GOP won them.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2018, 10:01:22 AM »

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?

It should be Lean D.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2018, 10:19:48 AM »

Larry Hogan didn't lead single poll in 2014 except the very last one and still won an upset. Not saying this is likely to happen this time, but single-digit leads are no reason to stop polling because "it's over". Trendlines matter equally, especially in the final weeks and days.

Yeah, maybe I went a little too far, but I take issue with your Hogan comparison since there weren’t nearly as many polls of MD-GOV 2014 in the run-up to the election as in this state, the Hogan race didn’t receive disproportionate media attention, turnout was far lower, etc. There would have to be a pretty substantial polling error for O'Rourke to win, which I certainly wouldn’t rule out by any means, but I also wouldn’t want to rely on it. I definitely don’t get why people are so convinced that he’s more likely to win than Bredesen or Heitkamp. Sure, TX could very well end up being closer than ND/TN, but quite frankly I don’t think O'Rourke is the right candidate to win a federal race in a state which is still very tough terrain for Democrats.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2018, 11:39:26 AM »

I never understand why people complain about pollsters who are obviously exclusive to the State, polling the State..... in most years this would be one of the the three TX polls we get lol
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2018, 12:40:20 PM »

It's not the fact SN cheerlead, he thinks that Dems are strong enough to carry WI, Pa and MI, and those three states only has gone GOP 1x since 1988.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2018, 05:09:07 PM »

I don’t believe this poll because it doesn’t have decimals...
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #39 on: October 26, 2018, 06:44:33 PM »

Okay we get it. Cruz is ahead by mid single digits.

Can we get non internal polls out of Indiana and Missouri now?
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