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  FL-SEN: Nelson + 1 (Strategic Research Associates)
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Author Topic: FL-SEN: Nelson + 1 (Strategic Research Associates)  (Read 923 times)
2016
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« on: October 25, 2018, 12:00:55 pm »

https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Latest-poll-Florida-gov-senate-races-neck-and-neck-498545201.html

Nelson 46
Scott 45

Same Poll has DeSantis up 3 over Gillum.
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Joshua
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 12:02:21 pm »

Has Trump approval at a 53-44 (+9) in Florida. #Yikes
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2018, 12:05:20 pm »

Has Trump approval at a 53-44 (+9) in Florida. #Yikes

Same Pollster has Cramer ahead by 16 in ND and Manchin ahead by 16 in WV.
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2018, 12:05:54 pm »

If a poll that finds Trump +9 in Florida can't find Scott ahead, stick a fork in him.
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OneJ
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2018, 12:07:28 pm »

Has Trump approval at a 53-44 (+9) in Florida. #Yikes

Well if thatís the case, this confirms my theory that Iíd much rather be Nelson than Scott right now.
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 12:07:52 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 12:11:06 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 12:13:44 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 12:17:43 pm »

WUT, youíre telling me that Republicans might actually have a better chance at winning Senate races in Romney/Trump states than in an Obama/Trump state that went for Trump by 1 even though Scott is a stronger candidate than Hawley, Braun, etc.?!11!
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2018, 12:22:30 pm »

WUT, youíre telling me that Republicans might actually have a better chance at winning Senate races in Romney/Trump states than in an Obama/Trump state that went for Trump by 1 even though Scott is a stronger candidate than Hawley, Braun, etc.?!11!

I know, that's pretty crazy, tbh. Kinda like the idea that Democrats have a better chance of picking up a seat in an Obama/Clinton state than a 20%+ Romney/Trump state.
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2018, 12:23:20 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2018, 12:25:08 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2018, 12:27:05 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.

If FL is an outlier so is West Virginia. LOL, quite funny how you bragged all around Manchin being up 16 when he clearly isn't.
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2018, 12:29:20 pm »

WUT, youíre telling me that Republicans might actually have a better chance at winning Senate races in Romney/Trump states than in an Obama/Trump state that went for Trump by 1 even though Scott is a stronger candidate than Hawley, Braun, etc.?!11!

I know, that's pretty crazy, tbh. Kinda like the idea that Democrats have a better chance of picking up a seat in an Obama/Clinton state than a 20%+ Romney/Trump state.

But #BredesenStrongCandidate #BlackburnWeakCandidate
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2018, 12:30:05 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.

If FL is an outlier so is West Virginia. LOL, quite funny how you bragged all around Manchin being up 16 when he clearly isn't.
You must be confusing me with someone else, I never bought the Manchin +16 poll. It just shows how bad the pollster is. Manchin is up, probably by around 7-10 points, 16 is excessive.

Anyway, it seems like we can both agree that both polls, in fact, all polls done by this pollster, have been odd and outliers entirely.
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2018, 12:32:55 pm »

Gotta how how 2016 unironically believes FL approves of Trump by 9. FL is not 18+ points to the right of the nation no matter how much you'd like that to be the case.
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2018, 12:34:35 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.

If FL is an outlier so is West Virginia. LOL, quite funny how you bragged all around Manchin being up 16 when he clearly isn't.
You must be confusing me with someone else, I never bought the Manchin +16 poll. It just shows how bad the pollster is. Manchin is up, probably by around 7-10 points, 16 is excessive.

Anyway, it seems like we can both agree that both polls, in fact, all polls done by this pollster, have been odd and outliers entirely.

No, I don't. FOX had Cramer up 12 in their latest Poll and this Poll has Cramer up 16...entirely reasonable.

I predict that Heitkamp will lose by 20.
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2018, 12:38:57 pm »

No wonder why nobody was polling North Dakota except these guys.
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2018, 12:39:20 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.

If FL is an outlier so is West Virginia. LOL, quite funny how you bragged all around Manchin being up 16 when he clearly isn't.
You must be confusing me with someone else, I never bought the Manchin +16 poll. It just shows how bad the pollster is. Manchin is up, probably by around 7-10 points, 16 is excessive.

Anyway, it seems like we can both agree that both polls, in fact, all polls done by this pollster, have been odd and outliers entirely.

No, I don't. FOX had Cramer up 12 in their latest Poll and this Poll has Cramer up 16...entirely reasonable.

I predict that Heitkamp will lose by 20.

I have already talked about that poll enough, and I dont want to contaminate this thread, so I will stick with FL.

The poll is clearly garbage, but, as it is a poll, the best choice is to put it in the average.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2018, 12:48:32 pm »

Oh look who it is, its Strategic Research Associates, the same pollster that gave Cramer a lead of 16 with an electorate of 60%R, a 10% increase from 2016. Are you telling me they also made an unreasonably R sample that caused false results. Wow, ya dont say?

They also have Manchin ahead by 16 in West Virginia.

Vote rich GOP Counties not included...

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.

It really doesnt matter if they excluded counties or not, the data shows they clearly oversampled R voters. Trump is at +10 approval in the state, which hasnt been found by any other poll so far.Its a clear outlier. Whats surprising to me is that Nelson is still leading even in such a biased outlier poll, so.....I dunno, put it in the average.

It does. AND it has become apparent that Siena, CNN, Q-Pac + others really oversampled Democrats living on the Florida Gold Coast (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach Counties) because people in the Panhandle had something else to do answering Pollsters when there homes are destroyed and their lives were at risk.

The panhandle is not a large region in terms of population. I can buy that the race will shift 2 points R, or the approval of Trump in the state by 3, but what you are suggesting is a move of around 10-15 approval points out of nowhere. It doesnt add up. And seriously, this is a brand new pollster with no background or history, we dont know its quality. But it should be incredibly clear that this is an outlier, no matter how you slice it.

If FL is an outlier so is West Virginia. LOL, quite funny how you bragged all around Manchin being up 16 when he clearly isn't.
You must be confusing me with someone else, I never bought the Manchin +16 poll. It just shows how bad the pollster is. Manchin is up, probably by around 7-10 points, 16 is excessive.

Anyway, it seems like we can both agree that both polls, in fact, all polls done by this pollster, have been odd and outliers entirely.

No, I don't. FOX had Cramer up 12 in their latest Poll and this Poll has Cramer up 16...entirely reasonable.

I predict that Heitkamp will lose by 20.

I have already talked about that poll enough, and I dont want to contaminate this thread, so I will stick with FL.

The poll is clearly garbage, but, as it is a poll, the best choice is to put it in the average.



You're a hack if you believe it. You're a hack if you don't see it as a data point.
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2018, 01:28:07 pm »

Looks like it's getting better for Nelson. This seems like a right-leaning pollster.
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2018, 05:30:44 pm »

Is this the same poll (Other Source) that just the day before per what is posted on the board here had Nelson with a 9 point lead?
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2018, 05:35:22 pm »

Is this the same poll (Other Source) that just the day before per what is posted on the board here had Nelson with a 9 point lead?

No, the Nelson +9 poll was from St. Leo's. That should also be ignored, given that they had Clinton up 12 at this point in Florida.
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2018, 09:19:25 pm »

Here is now the entire Poll

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_FL_October_Survey.pdf

54 Female
46 Male

65 White
15 Black
13 Hispanic
7 Other

Party ID
D 43
R 41
I 15
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