Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.
Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.
So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?
We’ve gotten more than enough polls of this race showing Cruz with a mid to (more often) high single-digit lead and–more importantly–above 50%, while O'Rourke has only led in like two out of 30 polls of this race, and those were junk polls anyway (Reuters and TX Lyceum, IIRC?). Even Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Cruz with a consistent advantage in this race. Barring a Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, his seat isn’t going to flip, and I maintain that Heitkamp and Bredesen are more likely to win than O'Rourke.
Pretty much.
Barring some unforeseen development in these final days, Cruz is probably going to be reelected.
