TX UT/Tribune: Cruz +6

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?

We’ve gotten more than enough polls of this race showing Cruz with a mid to (more often) high single-digit lead and–more importantly–above 50%, while O'Rourke has only led in like two out of 30 polls of this race, and those were junk polls anyway (Reuters and TX Lyceum, IIRC?). Even Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Cruz with a consistent advantage in this race. Barring a Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, his seat isn’t going to flip, and I maintain that Heitkamp and Bredesen are more likely to win than O'Rourke.

[MT Treasurer]

Larry Hogan didn't lead single poll in 2014 except the very last one and still won an upset. Not saying this is likely to happen this time, but single-digit leads are no reason to stop polling because "it's over". Trendlines matter equally, especially in the final weeks and days.

Yeah, maybe I went a little too far, but I take issue with your Hogan comparison since there weren’t nearly as many polls of MD-GOV 2014 in the run-up to the election as in this state, the Hogan race didn’t receive disproportionate media attention, turnout was far lower, etc. There would have to be a pretty substantial polling error for O'Rourke to win, which I certainly wouldn’t rule out by any means, but I also wouldn’t want to rely on it. I definitely don’t get why people are so convinced that he’s more likely to win than Bredesen or Heitkamp. Sure, TX could very well end up being closer than ND/TN, but quite frankly I don’t think O'Rourke is the right candidate to win a federal race in a state which is still very tough terrain for Democrats.