TX UT/Tribune: Cruz +6

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R. Cruz probably has this, but Beto can win an upset.

Despite this poll, Beto is campaigning in TX and this isn't the end to be all. FL, NV, TX, and AZ underestimate Black and Latino strength. Even in OH GOV, McConnell has a 25% approval and Trump is ethically challenged, in a Dem wave year

What? This is the most weird post I ever read on this forum. A high quality #analysis fully on topic of the thread.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?

We’ve gotten more than enough polls of this race showing Cruz with a mid to (more often) high single-digit lead and–more importantly–above 50%, while O'Rourke has only led in like two out of 30 polls of this race, and those were junk polls anyway (Reuters and TX Lyceum, IIRC?). Even Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Cruz with a consistent advantage in this race. Barring a Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, his seat isn’t going to flip, and I maintain that Heitkamp and Bredesen are more likely to win than O'Rourke.

MT-Sen is tilt D or toss-up, although I think Tester will win reelection.

Larry Hogan didn't lead single poll in 2014 except the very last one and still won an upset. Not saying this is likely to happen this time, but single-digit leads are no reason to stop polling because "it's over". Trendlines matter equally, especially in the final weeks and days.