GA-NBC/Marist: Kemp +1

[libertpaulian]

Stop polling Georgia. We know it's just going to be a tie or Kemp +1-2 every time.

Yes, I'm ready for some polls of Ohio.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R

R+1 = Lean R
D+5 = Tossup

[Badger]

Blacks only made up 25% of the LIKELY VOTERS polled for this and Abrams will easily clear 90% of the black vote. Trash.

I don't see how Kemp clears 40% with 18-29s, either.

It's nice to see her breaking 40% with non-college and 60 and up, though.

But isn't it possible if the poll is off by showing a higher than likely level of support among blacks for kemp, that it could likewise be wrong by showing a higher level of support among whites and Youth for Abrams than really exists?

[libertpaulian]

Blacks only made up 25% of the LIKELY VOTERS polled for this and Abrams will easily clear 90% of the black vote. Trash.

I don't see how Kemp clears 40% with 18-29s, either.

It's nice to see her breaking 40% with non-college and 60 and up, though.

But isn't it possible if the poll is off by showing a higher than likely level of support among blacks for kemp, that it could likewise be wrong by showing a higher level of support among whites and Youth for Abrams than really exists?

Kemp is running a campaign that would be suitable for the Georgia of 20 years ago.  Abrams is running a campaign that is suitable for the Georgia that is to come.  She's also reaching out to 18-29s and treating them as if they have issues that need to be addressed.  I don't think Kemp is as youth-focused as she is.  Also, "white" in Georgia doesn't mean the gun-toting hick like it used to.  It also means the business executive in Marietta, the lawyer in Lawrenceville, or the news anchor in Columbus.  Not to mention a lot of whites from the Northeast, Midwest, and (a small smattering from) the West Coast are pouring into Metro Atlanta as well as some of the micro-cities.

Perhaps other Georgia posters can enlighten me on that.

[Badger]

Blacks only made up 25% of the LIKELY VOTERS polled for this and Abrams will easily clear 90% of the black vote. Trash.

I don't see how Kemp clears 40% with 18-29s, either.

It's nice to see her breaking 40% with non-college and 60 and up, though.

But isn't it possible if the poll is off by showing a higher than likely level of support among blacks for kemp, that it could likewise be wrong by showing a higher level of support among whites and Youth for Abrams than really exists?

Kemp is running a campaign that would be suitable for the Georgia of 20 years ago.  Abrams is running a campaign that is suitable for the Georgia that is to come.  She's also reaching out to 18-29s and treating them as if they have issues that need to be addressed.  I don't think Kemp is as youth-focused as she is.  Also, "white" in Georgia doesn't mean the gun-toting hick like it used to.  It also means the business executive in Marietta, the lawyer in Lawrenceville, or the news anchor in Columbus.  Not to mention a lot of whites from the Northeast, Midwest, and (a small smattering from) the West Coast are pouring into Metro Atlanta as well as some of the micro-cities.

Perhaps other Georgia posters can enlighten me on that.

All true. However, I think the most important words in your post are "the Georgia that is to come. I fear that the state just isn't there yet. Though if for no other reason camps Shameless voter suppression tactics and, above all, it's patently unfair 50% + 1 runoff rule, is going to stop her.