MT UM-Big Sky: Tester +10

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/UMBigSkyPoll-BackgroundMemoPoll2-Fall2018.pdf

Tester 49
Rosendale 39
Breckenridge 2

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nice

[Comrade Funk]

Lean D

[ON Progressive]

Uh oh, it’s a 14 point slide for Tester.

#Rosendaleslide
#DemsInDisarray
#RedWave2018

[Sir Mohamed]

Dem internal? Seems to be an outlier, but Tester is going to win by mid single digits.

[DaWN]

These were the Tester +24 guys so I think we can safely disregard this one, even if the numbers look vaguely plausible.

[ON Progressive]

Dem internal? Seems to be an outlier, but Tester is going to win by mid single digits.

It’s not an internal. However, this is the same poll that had Tester +24, so I’m skeptical of this poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D, GOP is wasting time in MT

[MT Treasurer]

They also had Tester ahead by 24 in their last poll, but I guess that doesn’t matter

Throw it in the trash. Tester is favored to win, but neither side is behaving like this is a 10-point race.

[Woody]

They had Tester 24 last time. I guess Rosendale is surging now after his debate performance.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

They also had Tester ahead by 24 in their last poll, but I guess that doesn’t matter

Throw it in the trash. Tester is favored to win, but neither side is behaving like this is a 10-point race.

[Person Man]

It had Williams up by 1, but since it has a reputation of creating D-friendly outliers, it actually hurt the D's chances in 538 though their condition has improved since this morning.

[windjammer]

They also had Tester ahead by 24 in their last poll, but I guess that doesn’t matter

Throw it in the trash. Tester is favored to win, but neither side is behaving like this is a 10-point race.

^^^^

[Skye]

As believable as their Tester +24 poll.

[IceSpear]

At this rate of collapse ROSENdale will win by 20 points. RIP Tester.

[Xing]

Junk. They clearly forgot to add the extra '0' at the end.

[IceSpear]

At this rate of collapse ROSENdale will win by 20 points. RIP Tester.

This is an underrated dynamic of the NV/MT Senate races.  Political Genius & Republican Juggernaut Heller has been offering ROSEN voters free rides to the polls; but secretly taking them from Las Vegas to Helena, where they instinctively vote for ROSENdale, helping to destroy the massive lead Tester had obtained just earlier this month.

This also means he'll have many spare HELLER voters to send across the Hoover Dam into Arizona and save McSally as well.

true if big

[Seriously?]

Safe D, GOP is wasting time in MT

How expensive can it be to advertise in Montana? It's not like it's like you're throwing money into the NYC/Philly TV markets like the GOP/PACs are with Hugin (and presumably Hugin himself to some extent).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

True if big

[Senator Incitatus]

Safe D, GOP is wasting time in MT

How expensive can it be to advertise in Montana? It's not like it's like you're throwing money into the NYC/Philly TV markets like the GOP/PACs are with Hugin (and presumably Hugin himself to some extent).

Has the GOP actually spent on Hugin? I was under the impression that he was almost completely self-funded.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was talking about Trump campaigning on behalf or Rosendale, coming to the state.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

At this rate of collapse ROSENdale will win by 20 points. RIP Tester.

well who knows, maybe that will happen for real if Tester has a major scandal

[Wisconsin+17]

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The Kavanaugh bump is real.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Montana takes the cake for weird polls this cycle.

[President Johnson]

Big Sky is Steve Bullock's PAC. Tester is not ahead by ten, but he may win seven or eight. I say 50-45%.