2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ON Progressive]

Note: This thread served as the last of 4 generic ballot megathreads leading up to 2018. It is now the megathread for 2020 generic ballot polls

Note: Until Jan-Feb 2020, this will serve as a combined megathread for generic ballot polls, candidate recruitment news, ratings and fundraising reports (eg, for the DCCC/NRCC)



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NJ-05 (McLAUGHlin):
Josh Gottheimer (D-inc) 47
John McCann (R) 38

https://newjerseyglobe.com/fl/mccann-poll-has-gottheimer-ahead-by-9-points/

Safe D. I expect Gottheimer to win by at least 19 now.


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Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302399.0

[Gass3268]

NJ-05 (McLAUGHlin):
Josh Gottheimer (D-inc) 47
John McCann (R) 38

https://newjerseyglobe.com/fl/mccann-poll-has-gottheimer-ahead-by-9-points/

Safe D. I expect Gottheimer to win by at least 19 now.

Lol, if this is the best they can show.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

[Brittain33]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

Hahahaha, "Suburban" is 1% more Democratic voting than "Big city."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hahahaha, "Suburban" is 1% more Democratic voting than "Big city."

Uh-oh, are Dems losing all their support in big cities? #DemsInDisarray

[Brittain33]

Hahahaha, "Suburban" is 1% more Democratic voting than "Big city."

Uh-oh, are Dems losing all their support in big cities? #DemsInDisarray

Perhaps we need a new thread asking if anyone else feels the Dems are throwing away their chance at success?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

Hopefully this will be the first of a series of final GCB polls from high quality phone pollsters showing double digit Dem GCB leads.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

This is actually NPR/PBS/Marist. NBC, with the Wall Street Journal, uses a different firm for their national numbers.

Also this is +2 for Democrats and -2 for Republicans, taken during the time that Trump was trying to scaremonger with immigration. Very good poll!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hahahaha, "Suburban" is 1% more Democratic voting than "Big city."

Uh-oh, are Dems losing all their support in big cities? #DemsInDisarray

Perhaps we need a new thread asking if anyone else feels the Dems are throwing away their chance at success?

Yeah. Maybe a good thread title would be: "Dems losing support in big cities, only getting 23% support from Independents in A-Rated Marist GCB Poll."

And yes, Dems only have 23% support from Independents in this poll...

Whereas Reps have 13%...

Of course, that's because Marist separates out Dem-leaning Independents and Rep-leaning independents, so that only 10% of RVs are "Just Independents."

[Gass3268]

Also, this unfortunately is only an RV poll, but for people who say the 2018 Congressional Elections are Very Important, Democrats jump up by 5 points.

[psychprofessor]

Also, this unfortunately is only an RV poll, but for people who say the 2018 Congressional Elections are Very Important, Democrats jump up by 5 points.

Just look at those college educated women, esp. Democratic and Independent college educated women!!!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

[Gass3268]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

Lean R still seems right to me.  The same poll has Tester up 10.  I feel very good about Tester's chance to win, but not by that much.  I wouldn't be surprised on election day to see both Tester and Gianforte win by about 5.

[MycroftCZ]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

Lean R still seems right to me.  The same poll has Tester up 10.  I feel very good about Tester's chance to win, but not by that much.  I wouldn't be surprised on election day to see both Tester and Gianforte win by about 5.

It would be so great to see Body Slammin' Greg be defeated.

[KingSweden]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

Lean R still seems right to me.  The same poll has Tester up 10.  I feel very good about Tester's chance to win, but not by that much.  I wouldn't be surprised on election day to see both Tester and Gianforte win by about 5.

This is my take too.

[smoltchanov]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

Lean R still seems right to me.  The same poll has Tester up 10.  I feel very good about Tester's chance to win, but not by that much.  I wouldn't be surprised on election day to see both Tester and Gianforte win by about 5.

This is my take too.

[MT Treasurer]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

Just ignore the Tester +3/Gianforte +8 poll and take a Williams +1/Tester +10 poll at face value, okay then. But I get that people are basically just basing their predictions for these two races on their personal feelings.

[Xing]

If Pianoforte is only down by 0.5% in a Tester +10 poll, he'd definitely favored.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

This is actually NPR/PBS/Marist. NBC, with the Wall Street Journal, uses a different firm for their national numbers.

Also this is +2 for Democrats and -2 for Republicans, taken during the time that Trump was trying to scaremonger with immigration. Very good poll!

Dave Weigel made an excellent point, as he typically does, that slipped my mind. This was the poll that started the narrative of the "Kavanaugh Bump." So much for that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Definitely good news, yeah, and combing through the crosstabs for weird results is always a ridiculous and pointless exercise. The main point of caution is that this is a RV poll with a fairly small sample size. Throwing it into the 538 average brought Dems' lead up by 0.2 points, which seems reasonable.

Hopefully there are more polls like this to come.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1055885713554710529

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1056025828553830401

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1056025828553830401

So were out of the Hillary Zone and into the zone of "well, maybe the people who we thought were voting were all passed out after work on election day from onanism and too many doritos and were replaced at the polls with people we thought would "forget" to vote." A more sinister alternative would be everything from the polls were right but there was mass voter fraud (from votes being changed to people being turned away at the polls or simply not having their votes counted) to the polls being wrong because honesty's role in our society has diminished to the point that you simply can't trust the average person enough anymore to be able reasonably assume that any poll you give will be not significantly degraded by interviewee fraud.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hmm, closer than I would have expected, I get that it's an internal, but even a Walden win by low tweens to teens is really underwhelming.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1055926665522696195