2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Full RRH Elections rating changes:

Toward the GOP:
IA-01: Lean D -> Tossup
MN-07: Lean D -> Tossup
NV-03: Likely D - > Lean D
NJ-02: Likely D -> Lean D
NY-11: Lean D -> Tossup
OH-12: Lean R -> Likely R
OR-04: Safe D -> Likely D
PA-01: Tossup -> Lean R
TX-10: Lean R -> Likely R
TX-31: Lean R -> Likely R
VA-10: Safe D -> Likely D

Toward the Democrats:
CA-25: Lean D -> Likely D
IN-05: Likely R -> Lean R
MI-03: Likely R -> Three-way Tossup
TX-23: Lean R -> Lean D
VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D
WI-08: Safe R -> Likely R

Some of these changes are okay, but there are some pretty questionable calls in here.

And that's why they will always be a pale imitation of Daily Kos Elections.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

LOL VA-10 TX-31 TX-10 and TX-24

[Young Conservative]

RRH thinks Democrats will holds the house and their current range is a GOP again of 16 to a democratic gain of 4. That makes sense to me. Does anyone actually think democrats are going to hold all their Trump seats in a presidential year? Come on. Atlas it the one in denial.

[Virginiá]

RRH thinks Democrats will holds the house and their current range is a GOP again of 16 to a democratic gain of 4. That makes sense to me. Does anyone actually think democrats are going to hold all their Trump seats in a presidential year? Come on. Atlas it the one in denial.

Not really, but that doesn't mean some of these ratings aren't overly optimistic or downright confusing.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

RRH thinks Democrats will holds the house and their current range is a GOP again of 16 to a democratic gain of 4. That makes sense to me. Does anyone actually think democrats are going to hold all their Trump seats in a presidential year? Come on. Atlas it the one in denial.

I think most people expect Democrats to lose seats on the aggregate, but not that much. MN-7, NJ-7, and GA-6 are not tossups, and they seem to agree with the Politician School of Thought on Texas being a solidly Republican state and that 2018 was a fluke.

[lfromnj]

RRH thinks Democrats will holds the house and their current range is a GOP again of 16 to a democratic gain of 4. That makes sense to me. Does anyone actually think democrats are going to hold all their Trump seats in a presidential year? Come on. Atlas it the one in denial.

Im just calling em in denial of certain trends in both directions.

[OneJ]

RRH thinks Democrats will holds the house and their current range is a GOP again of 16 to a democratic gain of 4. That makes sense to me. Does anyone actually think democrats are going to hold all their Trump seats in a presidential year? Come on. Atlas it the one in denial.

How about you actually point out to all the people on here saying that the Democrats will hold all of their Trump seats?

[Pericles]

Full RRH Elections rating changes:

Toward the GOP:
IA-01: Lean D -> Tossup Accurate
MN-07: Lean D -> Tossup No, Lean or Likely R, Peterson will do worse in a presidential electorate
NV-03: Likely D - > Lean D In a neutral national environment this is accurate, in a pro-Democratic national environment it would be Likely D
NJ-02: Likely D -> Lean D Reasonable
NY-11: Lean D -> Tossup Trump did win this so this is reasonable, but Rose does seem strong and this district seems weird so hard to tell
OH-12: Lean R -> Likely R Accurate
OR-04: Safe D -> Likely D Reasonable
PA-01: Tossup -> Lean R Wrong, tossup is a better rating, Clinton won this district and Wallace was a bad candidate
TX-10: Lean R -> Likely R Likely R is a bit extreme imo
TX-31: Lean R -> Likely R Lean R seems better
VA-10: Safe D -> Likely D Lmao no, this is Safe D

Toward the Democrats:
CA-25: Lean D -> Likely D This district is highly unlikely to flip back, should probably be Safe D, but Lean D was lol-tier while Likely D isn't as bad
IN-05: Likely R -> Lean R Seems reasonable
MI-03: Likely R -> Three-way Tossup I doubt Amash does well enough to be competitive, this race is unpredictable though, maybe Lean R would be a better rating though
TX-23: Lean R -> Lean D Accurate
VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D Plausible, though this does seem pretty competitive
WI-08: Safe R -> Likely R Trump won by 17 points here, and it trended dramatically Republican, Safe R seems better

Some of these changes are okay, but there are some pretty questionable calls in here.

My thoughts on the ratings in bold.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone who says PA-01 is anything but a tossup is just being delusional. Especially in a Presidential Year.

[lfromnj]

lol former Illegal running in the GOP primary for MI 11.
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/08/pro-trump-immigrant-to-challenge-stevens-for-congress-in-2020.html

[wbrocks67]

This is interesting:

A new poll conducted by a premier Republican polling firm shows that about 3 in 4 suburban women favor stricter gun laws. The Republican Main Street Partnership, which supports moderate Republicans and has endorsed “red flag” bills under consideration in the House, commissioned a Public Opinion Strategies survey of 1,000 registered voters across five suburban House districts: Colorado’s Sixth, Kansas’s Third, North Carolina’s Ninth, Pennsylvania’s First and Virginia’s 10th.

The survey was in the field on Aug. 7 and 8, four days after the massacres in Texas and Ohio, so feelings were still especially raw. Half the respondents were reached via land line, and the other half were contacted over cell phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent. The president’s approval rating was underwater among this suburban sample, with 35 percent approving and 61 percent disapproving (55 percent strongly). Democrats led on the generic House ballot by a margin of 51 percent to 33 percent. The poll also found that 2 in 3 of the women in these districts are pessimistic about the country’s direction.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2019/08/19/daily-202-a-republican-poll-shows-overwhelming-support-for-stricter-gun-control-among-suburban-women/5d5a14ac88e0fa30c9cc1cc4/?wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

Trump being -26 in the suburbs is fatal.

[lfromnj]

https://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/190722NRCC.pdf

NRCC internal in WI-3. Obviously too R friendly but this race is competitive.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/190722NRCC.pdf

NRCC internal in WI-3. Obviously too R friendly but this race is competitive.

It's only competitive based on how he's doing in WI as a whole. He will only have a shot at this district if he wins by a larger margin than he did in 2016.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1163655969584365568

[Gracile]

It's a shame that we have so few non-internal House polls.

[Oryxslayer]

It's a shame that we have so few non-internal House polls.

Its 2019 and you want seat polls for 2020

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1163655969584365568

Ouch.

[Strong Candidate]

WI-03
Unknown pollster (lol) for the NRCC
400 likely voters

"Named Republican" (possibly State Senator Pat Testin) 45
Ron Kind (D-i) 43
Undecided 12

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/190722NRCC.pdf

[IceSpear]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

Evers carried that district. It might not be as strongly Democratic as it was 10 years ago but it still leans that way.

[Politician]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

>NRCC internal

[Brittain33]

I want to know if they polled the horse race before or after they asked voters if they thought preserving freedom was better than bankrupting the U.S. with socialism (I’m not exaggerating, click the link.)

[Skunk]

I want to know if they polled the horse race before or after they asked voters if they thought preserving freedom was better than bankrupting the U.S. with socialism (I’m not exaggerating, click the link.)

Yeah, while WI-03 may or may not be competitive (I think it's Likely D, fwiw), this poll is worthless.

[Gracile]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

>NRCC internal

Uh...

NRCC internal: Malinowski TRAILS generic R, 44-42.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nrcc-poll-malinowski-in-close-re-election-race-remains-largely-unknown/

But Atlas told me this district was Safe D because of muh sububran trends and muh "swung towards Menendez"!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

Evers carried that district. It might not be as strongly Democratic as it was 10 years ago but it still leans that way.

He barely carried WI-03. It was something like a two point Evers win. Hardly D leaning when you consider it nearly matched the statewide results