2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Calthrina950]

CA-50: Former CA-49 Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is forming an exploratory committee-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1166899957401415680

I dislike carpetbagging politicians. Issa retired because he could not win reelection in his old district, and now he's thinking about shifting to a safer, less competitive seat. And while Issa would be an "improvement" over the corrupt and scandal-plagued Hunter, that's not saying much.

There's also the popular (in conservative circles) DeMaio who would be an improvement of both these losers. It's a shame that only Najjar is running currently for the Dems, because so many high profile R's would raise the possibility of a DvD lockout - and I'm normally the guy who pushs back on the top two lockout scenarios in non-safe seats.

Also Issa Represented 'some' of the present CA-50 under the 2000 map, so it's a little less heinous, even if his motives are poisonous.

I agree about Najjar, who is not the best Democratic candidate for this seat, even though he managed to lose to Hunter by "only" 8% last year. More Democrats running would shut off the possibility of either Hunter or Issa prevailing. But if that doesn't happen, then I would hope that DeMaio would be able to earn enough support to at least get into the top two, preferably against Hunter.

The House election in CA-50 was won by Hunter 51.7%-48.3%, or a margin of 3.4%.

Oh, my mistake. I was thinking of the early results in the first weeks after the election. This is even narrower than I had believed. Well, it's goes to show that a more formidable Democratic candidate than Naijar may have beaten Hunter.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-50: Former CA-49 Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is forming an exploratory committee-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1166899957401415680

I dislike carpetbagging politicians. Issa retired because he could not win reelection in his old district, and now he's thinking about shifting to a safer, less competitive seat. And while Issa would be an "improvement" over the corrupt and scandal-plagued Hunter, that's not saying much.

There's also the popular (in conservative circles) DeMaio who would be an improvement of both these losers. It's a shame that only Najjar is running currently for the Dems, because so many high profile R's would raise the possibility of a DvD lockout - and I'm normally the guy who pushs back on the top two lockout scenarios in non-safe seats.

Also Issa Represented 'some' of the present CA-50 under the 2000 map, so it's a little less heinous, even if his motives are poisonous.

I agree about Najjar, who is not the best Democratic candidate for this seat, even though he managed to lose to Hunter by "only" 8% last year. More Democrats running would shut off the possibility of either Hunter or Issa prevailing. But if that doesn't happen, then I would hope that DeMaio would be able to earn enough support to at least get into the top two, preferably against Hunter.

The House election in CA-50 was won by Hunter 51.7%-48.3%, or a margin of 3.4%.

Oh, my mistake. I was thinking of the early results in the first weeks after the election. This is even narrower than I had believed. Well, it's goes to show that a more formidable Democratic candidate than Naijar may have beaten Hunter.

I agree, I think Butner would have edged out.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

As I predicted, Atlas is already freaking out about the CA-21 rating.

If you don't agree MAKE YOUR OWN RATINGS!

2 dismissive posts = TOTAL ATLAS FREAK-OUT!!!!!!!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1169279628252536832

Nomination for weirdest challengers have begun.

[Politician]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-tossup-house-race-in-the-houston-suburbs

Fletcher trails by 2 in NRCC internal. To be taken with a massive grain of salt.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-tossup-house-race-in-the-houston-suburbs

Fletcher trails by 2 in NRCC internal. To be taken with a massive grain of salt.

Are they even trying to make these remotely believable anymore?

[Gracile]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-tossup-house-race-in-the-houston-suburbs

Fletcher trails by 2 in NRCC internal. To be taken with a massive grain of salt.

It's the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), not the NRCC.
----
I wonder if this poll was released as a way to convince their donors that all the vulnerable Texas seats are not too far gone.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-tossup-house-race-in-the-houston-suburbs

Fletcher trails by 2 in NRCC internal. To be taken with a massive grain of salt.

It's the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), not the NRCC.
----
I wonder if this poll was released as a way to convince their donors that all the vulnerable Texas seats are not too far gone.

Fletcher's race is Lean Democratic in 2020, as is Allred's. Both of their seats are slipping away fast from Republicans, and Trump is almost certainly going to lose them again. Even Greg Abbott only carried them by single-digit margins, doing much worse than in 2014. Republicans should be focusing on flipping some of the vulnerable seats in the Midwest (such as those of Peterson, Cartwright, Kind, and Loebsack) that are potentially within their reach.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-tossup-house-race-in-the-houston-suburbs

Fletcher trails by 2 in NRCC internal. To be taken with a massive grain of salt.

LOL Likely D. I wouldn’t be shocked if Fletcher won by double digits. This seat is gone for the Rs.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Republicans want to drop money on TX-7, TX-32, MN-3, CA-48, CA-39 and CA-25 instead of seats like WI-3, PA-8, IL-17, IA-2 and ME-2 then go right ahead

[Young Conservative]

Carl Demaio raised 900k in 25 days.

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2019/09/03/carl-demaio-campaign-reports-raising-over-900000-in-25-days/

[Calthrina950]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-tossup-house-race-in-the-houston-suburbs

Fletcher trails by 2 in NRCC internal. To be taken with a massive grain of salt.

LOL Likely D. I wouldn’t be shocked if Fletcher won by double digits. This seat is gone for the Rs.

Double digits is a stretch, but Fletcher is certainly favored. I would call this Lean Democratic.

[lfromnj]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th? Even if they somehow win it in 2020 that means they have to play juggle incumbents around instead of just creating the neccesary 4th D sink in Houston.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th? Even if they somehow win it in 2020 that means they have to play juggle incumbents around instead of just creating the neccesary 4th D sink in Houston.

Because half the party thinks Texas 2016 and 2018 was a two-time fluke whereas the saner half that is trying to sound the alarm on Texas is getting ignored completely.

[IceSpear]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th? Even if they somehow win it in 2020 that means they have to play juggle incumbents around instead of just creating the neccesary 4th D sink in Houston.

Because half the party thinks Texas 2016 and 2018 was a two-time fluke whereas the saner half that is trying to sound the alarm on Texas is getting ignored completely.

Just like half the Democrats are still stuck in the past and desperately trying to salvage rural Minnesota districts that are "Democratic at heart" while writing off TX because it voted very Republican in 2004.

[Pericles]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th? Even if they somehow win it in 2020 that means they have to play juggle incumbents around instead of just creating the neccesary 4th D sink in Houston.

Because half the party thinks Texas 2016 and 2018 was a two-time fluke whereas the saner half that is trying to sound the alarm on Texas is getting ignored completely.

Just like half the Democrats are still stuck in the past and desperately trying to salvage rural Minnesota districts that are "Democratic at heart" while writing off TX because it voted very Republican in 2004.

Not sure about half for the Dems, reality-denying as on most issues exists on both sides but is more prevalent with the Republicans.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th? Even if they somehow win it in 2020 that means they have to play juggle incumbents around instead of just creating the neccesary 4th D sink in Houston.

Because half the party thinks Texas 2016 and 2018 was a two-time fluke whereas the saner half that is trying to sound the alarm on Texas is getting ignored completely.

Just like half the Democrats are still stuck in the past and desperately trying to salvage rural Minnesota districts that are "Democratic at heart" while writing off TX because it voted very Republican in 2004.

I am fairly sure that there is a big difference between Counties like Smith, TN and Poinsett, AR that last voted D in 2004 then gave Trump over 70% of the vote in 2016 and Counties like Itasca and Freeborn, MN that last voted D in 2012 then gave Trump under 55% of the vote in 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RobDamschen/status/1169563917045174276

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/RobDamschen/status/1169563917045174276

I full endorse Raul Ruiz for congress.

[MT Treasurer]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

[Young Conservative]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

Yeah! it is sooo crazy to think a Clinton +1 plurality district is remotely competitive. Obvious Safe D. Safer than NY14 because the trends are so fast obviously.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

Yeah! it is sooo crazy to think a Clinton +1 plurality district is remotely competitive. Obvious Safe D. Safer than NY14 because the trends are so fast obviously.

*When Republicans think some muah military token guy named Wesley I forgot the rest is part of the path back to a house majority in the current TX 7 in 2020 barring some massive circumstance*

[lfromnj]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

Yeah! it is sooo crazy to think a Clinton +1 plurality district is remotely competitive. Obvious Safe D. Safer than NY14 because the trends are so fast obviously.

Oh its winnable by the GOP in 2020 if Trump does well although very unlikely but it definitely isn't some tipping point district and all this will cause is a sh**tty map in 2022 for the GOP with redistricting juggling, Houston needs 4 D districts.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

Yeah! it is sooo crazy to think a Clinton +1 plurality district is remotely competitive. Obvious Safe D. Safer than NY14 because the trends are so fast obviously.

Going from Romney +22 to Clinton +1 to Beto +9 in six years is pretty fast if you ask me

[lfromnj]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

Yeah! it is sooo crazy to think a Clinton +1 plurality district is remotely competitive. Obvious Safe D. Safer than NY14 because the trends are so fast obviously.

Going from Romney +22 to Clinton +1 to Beto +9 in six years is pretty fast if you ask me

Don't forget 2014, Wendy Davis did pretty good in this district, IK Hd134 which is in this district was Romney +15 but Abbot +3. Basically its been trending D for the past 12 years with a massive trend in 2016.