2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

Is Warren winning almost all women? Are Biden and Sanders winning almost all men? Did Hillary in 2016 win most of the female vote and Sanders win most of the male vote?

We’re talking about a Republican primary in Oklahoma here, not a Democratic Presidential primary (where women are notably getting only about 30% of the combined vote). Try to stay on topic here.

You people must not have heard of clown cars before

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

Republicans nominated a woman in WV-03 of all places.

She was the ONLY woman running and won the primary with 23% of the vote. Of the 10 Republican women you could have used as your “exceptions to the rule”, you chose the single worst one

Yes, but don't you constantly spout about how misogynistic WV is?

Other "misogynistic" "racist hick" districts such as IN-02, WY-AL, AL-02, TX-12, NY-21, and WA-05 elected Republican women, it's not just suburbs lol.

That’s cute. You don’t think gender or sexism has anything to do with the fact that less than  10% of the Republican caucus is female

You aren't very good at mathematical probability. If the 4 main GOP candidates are women, there is a 99%+ chance the GOP nominee will be a woman. If 4/5 are women, there is an 70%+ chance the GOP nominee will be a woman.

That’s not how this whole politics thing works dude, but you’re not very good at it anyway

[OSR stands with Israel]

Its interesting that Montana Democrats are still so politically active and so many at least "plausible' candidates are at least attempting a run.

MT is really only solidly Republican at the Presidential level

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who knew that Democrats on this website would be jumping to defend the Republican Party from charges of sexism when <10% of Republican Congress people are women

[Politician]

Who knew that Democrats on this website would be jumping to defend the Republican Party from charges of sexism when <10% of Republican Congress people are women

It's not like 27/40 of the GOP potential nominees in battleground districts are women...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who knew that Democrats on this website would be jumping to defend the Republican Party from charges of sexism when <10% of Republican Congress people are women

It's not like 27/40 of the GOP potential nominees in battleground districts are women...

Also implied, 39/40 potential GOP nominees in battleground seats are men

[Gracile]

I think the point TrendsareReal was trying to make is that although the GOP establishment may promote certain women candidates, it's not guaranteed that their base will vote for them in the primary. The core GOP voter values adherence to a pure, conservative ideology above almost anything else - including issues of identity and promoting diversity in their caucus. That is not to say Republican women can't be elected (especially if they are sufficiently conservative). However, there is often a perception that female candidates are more moderate than their male counterparts. Some of this is based on stereotypes and a rejection of "identity politics" generally, but sometimes female GOP candidates deliberately embrace talking points out of the GOP mainstream as a way to attract swing voters (but would play poorly with the more conservative audience in the primary). And that's saying nothing of the fact that a good chunk of these women would have an uphill battle in the general election. Despite embracing positions that would appeal to some swing voters, the Republican brand in many of these places is so toxic that it probably won't make a difference.

It may sound harsh, but it's hard to look at the Republican party's women recruitment efforts as anything other than a cynical plot to alleviate some of the bad press they've gotten for their caucus' lack of diversity. We've already seen in one election in a safe seat, NC-03, where primary voters are more willing to choose a man over a woman with considerable party backing. And additionally, Rep. Elise Stefanik's efforts to increased the number of women legislators in the House have been derided by many of her more conservative colleagues (even going as far to undermine her as in the NC-03 election). That's not to say that the efforts of people like Stefanik aren't commendable, but I think this is one area where the Republicans are really out of touch with the realities of their voter base.

[Calthrina950]

I think the point TrendsareReal was trying to make is that although the GOP establishment may promote certain women candidates, it's not guaranteed that their base will vote for them in the primary. The core GOP voter values adherence to a pure, conservative ideology above almost anything else - including issues of identity and promoting diversity in their caucus. That is not to say Republican women can't be elected (especially if they are sufficiently conservative). However, there is often a perception that female candidates are more moderate than their male counterparts. Some of this is based on stereotypes and a rejection of "identity politics" generally, but sometimes female GOP candidates deliberately embrace talking points out of the GOP mainstream as a way to attract swing voters (but would play poorly with the more conservative audience in the primary). And that's saying nothing of the fact that a good chunk of these women would have an uphill battle in the general election. Despite embracing positions that would appeal to some swing voters, the Republican brand in many of these places is so toxic that it probably won't make a difference.

It may sound harsh, but it's hard to look at the Republican party's women recruitment efforts as anything other than a cynical plot to alleviate some of the bad press they've gotten for their caucus' lack of diversity. We've already seen in one election in a safe seat, NC-03, where primary voters are more willing to choose a man over a woman with considerable party backing. And additionally, Rep. Elise Stefanik's efforts to increased the number of women legislators in the House have been derided by many of her more conservative colleagues (even going as far to undermine her as in the NC-03 election). That's not to say that the efforts of people like Stefanik aren't commendable, but I think this is one area where the Republicans are really out of touch with the realities of their voter base.

If you ever read the posts at RRH Elections, you would get a good grasp of the mindset of the Republican base, to say nothing of conservative websites like Townhall, Daily Wire, etc. Many of the posters on those sites believe that ideological purity and (presently) loyalty to Trump, as well as loyalty to the Party, are far more important than promoting candidates of different racial backgrounds, or women, who may be well qualified and well prepared. Although I certainly understand the need for a party to recruit candidates in line with its agenda, I also think that holding up ideology over all else is damaging, and ultimately harmful to the Party's goals. At the rate things are going, we could have, 20 or 30 years from now, a Republican caucus in Congress that is still >90% white and >85% white male, while we have a country at large that is much more diverse, and a Democratic caucus even more diverse than it is now. That will only exacerbate polarization between the parties, going forward.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AlexThomasDC/status/1179547938990768128

Possible Kevin Brady (texas 08 retirement)

This is unfortunate timing for the GOP because it would be so much better for him to retire in 2022 as they could protect a lot of Houston districts by cracking Montgomery county which is arguably the most conservative large county in the country.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/AlexThomasDC/status/1179547938990768128

Possible Kevin Brady (texas 08 retirement)

This is unfortunate timing for the GOP because it would be so much better for him to retire in 2022 as they could protect a lot of Houston districts by cracking Montgomery county which is arguably the most conservative large county in the country.

Kay Granger is a few years away from 80 and has served 12 terms now. Wouldn't be surprised if it was her.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/AlexThomasDC/status/1179547938990768128

Possible Kevin Brady (texas 08 retirement)

This is unfortunate timing for the GOP because it would be so much better for him to retire in 2022 as they could protect a lot of Houston districts by cracking Montgomery county which is arguably the most conservative large county in the country.

Kay Granger is a few years away from 80 and has served 12 terms now. Wouldn't be surprised if it was her.

He says “he’s”.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’d be surprised if it was Brady. But there are several strong replacements for him: Steve Toth, Gordy Bunch, Brandon Creighton, Mark Keough.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

[ltomlinson31]

CA-50: SurveyUSA

Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) - 31%
Carl DeMaio (R) - 20%
Darrell Issa (R)- 16%
Duncan Hunter (R)- 11%

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2019-10-03/hunter-trails-new-poll

[Landslide Lyndon]

CA-50: SurveyUSA

Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) - 31%
Carl DeMaio (R) - 20%
Darrell Issa (R)- 16%
Duncan Hunter (R)- 11%

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2019-10-03/hunter-trails-new-poll

If Campa-Najar faces Issa at the general does he have any chance?

[Badger]

CA-03: John Garamendi has a new potential GE opponent in Sean Feucht, a millennial gospel singer and worship leader:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/california-congress-worship-leader-sean-feucht

Well, he will get Feucht by Garamendi, Safe D.

How fair and balanced to Fox News to give some third-tier Congressional candidate who happens to be a millennial social conservative a full page article of coverage

[Gracile]

NY-19: It appears that the campaign of Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) will go on air as a response to the RNC's impeachment ads-

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1179793582775050240

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

I'm shocked they aren't targeting Cartwright in PA-08. I think they know he'll be fine.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

I'm shocked they aren't targeting Cartwright in PA-08. I think they know he'll be fine.

No it's because the NRCC are idiots

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

Wait, Loebsack?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

These are all districts only slightly right of the national median. You would expect impeachment to not be an anchor on Dems in these seats based on current national polling

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

Wait, Loebsack?

Some, but not much, of IA-2 is in tv markets based in IA-1 and IA-3 anyway.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

Wait, Loebsack?

Some, but not much, of IA-2 is in tv markets based in IA-1 and IA-3 anyway.

Also remember that IA-02 is an open seat. It's going to be more tight then in past elections where  IA-01/03 sucked up all the attention in the room.

[Politician]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2019/10/04/the-first-congressional-television-ad-771260

Lots of other news:
Diabetes advocate Quinn Nystrom challenging Rep. Stauber in MN-8
Fmr. Supernintendo Janet Barresi challenging Rep. Horn in OK-5
Rep. Buck of CO-4 running for re-election despite retirement rumors
Fmr. TX-32 Rep. Sessions running for open TX-17
Newton City Councilman Jake Auchincloss running for open MA-4
Marine Corps veteran Aliscia Andrews challenging Rep. Wexton in VA-10

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2019/10/04/the-first-congressional-television-ad-771260

Lots of other news:
Diabetes advocate Quinn Nystrom challenging Rep. Stauber in MN-8
Fmr. Supernintendo Janet Barresi challenging Rep. Horn in OK-5
Rep. Buck of CO-4 running for re-election despite retirement rumors
Fmr. TX-32 Rep. Sessions running for open TX-17
Newton City Councilman Jake Auchincloss running for open MA-4
Marine Corps veteran Aliscia Andrews challenging Rep. Wexton in VA-10

I think all of those have already been brought up lol.