2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ElectionsGuy]

Fmr. TX-32 Rep. Sessions running for open TX-17

What should we call this phenomenon? The Issa strategy?

[Gass3268]

Fmr. TX-32 Rep. Sessions running for open TX-17

What should we call this phenomenon? The Issa strategy?

At least Issa was just moving to the district next door in the same county that had territory that was in a prior version of his district. Maybe the Kirkpatrick strategy?

[Yellowhammer]

Fmr. TX-32 Rep. Sessions running for open TX-17

What should we call this phenomenon? The Issa strategy?

At least Issa was just moving to the district next door in the same county that had territory that was in a prior version of his district. Maybe the Kirkpatrick strategy?

It's awful but nowhere near as bad as in Canada, where politicians parachute into some random riding on the other side of the country to get into parliament.

[Young Conservative]

I want fundraising numbers so bad. I hope people post any they find!

[Lisa's voting Biden]

FL-13 out of StPete Polls/Florida Politics, pairing incumbent Charlie Crist against former St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker.

Charlie Crist (D-inc) - 42% (+7)
Rick Baker (R) - 35%
Undecided - 23%

Trump Approval in FL-13
Approve - 47%
Disapprove - 49% (+2)


https://floridapolitics.com/archives/306726-new-poll-shows-rick-baker-vs-charlie-crist-would-be-closer-race-than-you-might-think

[ltomlinson31]

https://amp.azcentral.com/amp/3897137002?__twitter_impression=true

Kelly raised $5.5 million compared to McSally's $3 million and has $9.5 million cash on hand compared to McSally's $5.6 million.

[Gracile]

https://amp.azcentral.com/amp/3897137002?__twitter_impression=true

Kelly raised $5.5 million compared to McSally's $3 million and has $9.5 million cash on hand compared to McSally's $5.6 million.

How anyone can call this race a Tossup (or even Leaning Republican) presently is beyond me.

Obviously a lot can happen between now and election day, but these fundraising totals combined with McSally's tepid polling are pretty bad early signs for her.

[Gass3268]

Jim Costa failed to get the CA Democratic Party endorsement.

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1181025295429586944?s=20

[Gracile]

Assorted fundraising numbers for Q3-

IA-01: Ashley Hinson (R) raised $315K, has $492K on hand
IL-06: Jeanne Ives (R) raised $340K
SC-01: Nancy Mace (R) raised $358K, has $452K on hand

[Oryxslayer]

Jim Costa failed to get the CA Democratic Party endorsement.

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1181025295429586944?s=20

Incredibly meaningful. Because of how the jungle primary works, endorsements carry far more then their usual milquetoast weight - but only if they are powerful or numerous. Looking at ones voter information guide, seeing a list of 5ish dems and a few GOPers, and one has the endorsement of 20+ people and/or the CADEMs, there is a sort of 'peer-pressure' to go with that politician. You don't want to waste votes and let the GOP get unintended advantages, after all.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1181278344127475714

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1181278344127475714

So he actually raised 113k and contributed 300k of his own money

[LabourJersey]

Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Van Drew did underperform (by a good amount) in 2018. He could definitely be saved by very weak opposition but I think considering this and NJ-3 as tossups is reasonable

[Pericles]

Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Van Drew did underperform (by a good amount) in 2018. He could definitely be saved by very weak opposition but I think considering this and NJ-3 as tossups is reasonable

How much was he supposed to win by? He won by 8 points in a district that voted for Trump by 5 points, so the margin over-performance was double digits.

[Gracile]

Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Van Drew did underperform (by a good amount) in 2018. He could definitely be saved by very weak opposition but I think considering this and NJ-3 as tossups is reasonable

How much was he supposed to win by? He won by 8 points in a district that voted for Trump by 5 points, so the margin over-performance was double digits.

He underperformed his polling (he was leading by around 20% in the two public polls of the race), as well as Obama's 2012 margin in the district despite 2018 being arguably a better year for Democrats than 2012. Not to mention his opponent was triaged by national Republicans and made a bunch of racist comments. A poor opponent combined with Van Drew's moderate record made it seem like he would get a lot of crossover support. In hindsight, it was pretty unlikely that Van Drew would get those kinds of big numbers to begin with (and the 7.7% margin that he won with was a pretty good performance in our current partisan era). However, for the aforementioned reasons, I think a lot of people expected him to do just a little bit better.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Van Drew did underperform (by a good amount) in 2018. He could definitely be saved by very weak opposition but I think considering this and NJ-3 as tossups is reasonable

How much was he supposed to win by? He won by 8 points in a district that voted for Trump by 5 points, so the margin over-performance was double digits.

The seat was abandoned by the national GOP so everyone expected a blowout. But shocker, the seat was only marginally more favorable for the JVD then the environment and baseline data suggested, because both parties bases are rather loyal these days.

[morgieb]

Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Van Drew did underperform (by a good amount) in 2018. He could definitely be saved by very weak opposition but I think considering this and NJ-3 as tossups is reasonable

How much was he supposed to win by? He won by 8 points in a district that voted for Trump by 5 points, so the margin over-performance was double digits.

The seat was abandoned by the national GOP so everyone expected a blowout. But shocker, the seat was only marginally more favorable for the JVD then the environment and baseline data suggested, because both parties bases are rather loyal these days.

Yeah the bottom line is that while candidate choice does matter to some degree, there's a limit to how much it will matter.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Van Drew also didn’t run any negative ads, so I doubt the electorate was as well versed in Grossman’s problems as Twitter nerds were

[Gustaf]

Wait, so this district had a PVI of R+21 in 2018 and van Drew won it by 8? That sounds pretty good to me and not as if it was his fault he didn't win it bigger.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1181551082222374913?s=19

[ajc0918]

FL-13: Charlie Crist raises $400K, now has $2.6M cash on hand for reelection.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/307674-charlie-crist-raises-another-400k-for-reelection-campaign

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1181551082222374913?s=19

Porter should run for the Senate whenever Feinstein retires.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1181551082222374913?s=19

Porter should run for the Senate whenever Feinstein retires.

How about Katie Hill?

[Gracile]

TX-07: Wesley Hunt (R) raised $450K in Q3-

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1181541257363021824

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1181633866274103296?s=19

Lmao