2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[colincb]

Morning Consult joins Rasmussen in finding the generic to be D+3.  If they are correct the GOP RETAINS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.

I think they are a little low.  I believe it will be D+5 or 6.  That should put the Democrats in the range of 220 to 225. I do not think with that small a majority they will be able to do much damage. 

 I think that is best for Trump, too.  If the GOP were to keep the House, Trump would get the wrong message for 2020.

The best for Trump and the GOP would be to retain the House to squelch all the investigations coming their way.

[Ebsy]

I haven't cared about a Morning Consult poll all cycle and I am not going to start now.

[CookieDamage]

Morning Consult joins Rasmussen in finding the generic to be D+3.  If they are correct the GOP RETAINS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.

I think they are a little low.  I believe it will be D+5 or 6.  That should put the Democrats in the range of 220 to 225. I do not think with that small a majority they will be able to do much damage. 

 I think that is best for Trump, too.  If the GOP were to keep the House, Trump would get the wrong message for 2020.

Yawn

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/CSierra1CNN/status/1059399939246166016

[new_patomic]

CNN's last poll from October 4-7 was:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 41%

Good for them for not herding, whatever the result really.

[Zaybay]

Well, at least one pollster isnt herding to the 7-9 range.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059294038061277184

Partisanship is a hell of a drug

Well, conservatives sure as hell ain't voting for someone who they disagree with on almost everything (and vice versa). That's what you see now that the two parties are basically on polar opposite ends.

Last I checked most conservatives weren't Pro rape cover up. Though it is a shame Republican Party has taking the polar opposite end on this issue.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult joins Rasmussen in finding the generic to be D+3.  If they are correct the GOP RETAINS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.

I think they are a little low.  I believe it will be D+5 or 6.  That should put the Democrats in the range of 220 to 225. I do not think with that small a majority they will be able to do much damage. 

 I think that is best for Trump, too.  If the GOP were to keep the House, Trump would get the wrong message for 2020.

Morning Consult had D+8 last week. They continue to be junk.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/CSierra1CNN/status/1059399939246166016

I had to look up if there is any historical precedent for a gap in actual votes this large. This is what I found:

1974: D+16.8%
1964: D+14.7%
1958: D+12.4%

So, um, yeah. Brave, CNN.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone interested in a good laugh, Rasmussen/POS have the GCB at R +1.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For anyone interested in a good laugh, Rasmussen/POS have the GCB at R +1.

I'm beginning to think their LV screen is some variation of "are you a Republican?"

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Here's a more serious House prediction I came up with. A slight Democratic majority is definitely possible, assuming polling is mostly accurate. I'm skeptical of the idea that Democrats will overperform polling, so I doubt a decently sized D majority is in the works.

The Senate could end up being 50D-50R if polling is right on point, but we'll have to see.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC Dornsife/LA Times, Oct. 28-Nov. 3, 2521 LV (change from last week)

D: 56 (-1)
R: 41 (+1)

[KingSweden]

Here's a more serious House prediction I came up with. A slight Democratic majority is definitely possible, assuming polling is mostly accurate. I'm skeptical of the idea that Democrats will overperform polling, so I doubt a decently sized D majority is in the works.

The Senate could end up being 50D-50R if polling is right on point, but we'll have to see.

Hedging our bets, I see

[houseonaboat]

I really don't get how/why Silver, Cohn, Wasserman, et al are denying that there's been a pretty drastic shift to Dems in the past week. Call it consolidation of votes, undecideds breaking toward Dems, whatever, but it's very hard to find good polls from quality outlets for Republicans as of late.

[Devout Centrist]

USC Dornsife/LA Times, Oct. 28-Nov. 3, 2521 LV (change from last week)

D: 56 (-1)
R: 41 (+1)

Republican surge, woe is us!

[Gass3268]

The real Rassy, aka Scotty 2 Hotty, with HarrisX has it at D+12:

Democrats 52%
Republicans 40%

Source

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Also....Rasmussen finally gave us our first R+something poll, but I dunno...it seems like an outlier to me. I'm scared guys.

[KingSweden]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Also....Rasmussen finally gave us our first R+something poll, but I dunno...it seems like an outlier to me. I'm scared guys.

[Mike Thick]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

[KingSweden]

How do I fix this GIF I posted ^^?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The real Rassy, aka Scotty 2 Hotty, with HarrisX has it at D+12:

Democrats 52%
Republicans 40%

Source

The thread is moving too fast.  I posted that last night (#586) and it's already two pages back.

[ON Progressive]

How do I fix this GIF I posted ^^?

I don't think gifs show up as images on the Atlas board.

[Devout Centrist]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Did you actually knock on doors or did you stick to posting memes and running a subreddit?

[Brittain33]

How do I fix this GIF I posted ^^?

I don't think gifs show up as images on the Atlas board.

I just successfully posted one on the Nelson+7 poll using the Insert Image feature, but it doesn't always work.