2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Did you actually knock on doors or did you stick to posting memes and running a subreddit?

I don't run any subreddits. I run something else.

Anyway, I have knocked on many doors, but they were for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cynthia Nixon

[GeorgiaModerate]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

[Zaybay]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

Thats a D+9.25 average, pretty good, I will say.

[Gass3268]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

I wonder if we will get a Fox, Quinnipiac or Monmouth today.

[Zaybay]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

I wonder if we will get a Fox, Quinnipiac or Monmouth today.

Most likely, it is practically the last day.

If I were to predict, Fox is around D+9(they have been steady), Q is on the higher range, and Monmouth is on the lower range.

[Devout Centrist]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Did you actually knock on doors or did you stick to posting memes and running a subreddit?

I don't run any subreddits. I run something else.

Anyway, I have knocked on many doors, but they were for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cynthia Nixon

You supported AOC and decided to 'walk away' days later??

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Did you actually knock on doors or did you stick to posting memes and running a subreddit?

I don't run any subreddits. I run something else.

Anyway, I have knocked on many doors, but they were for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cynthia Nixon

You supported AOC and decided to 'walk away' days later??

Pics or it didn't happen.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

No, I #walkedaway years ago but still decided to spend a great deal of time this year volunteering for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Cynthia Nixon. Got a long winded explanation.

also

 

Preach it Mr. President!

[Nyvin]

It really looks like everything everywhere is breaking for the Dems.   I'm not one to call the race before it's over, but polling is getting pretty bad for the GOP here.    Is anyone else noticing this late swing to the Dems?

[libertpaulian]

It really looks like everything everywhere is breaking for the Dems.   I'm not one to call the race before it's over, but polling is getting pretty bad for the GOP here.    Is anyone else noticing this late swing to the Dems?

Reminds me of when Trump started closing the gap in the last two weeks of October/first week of November.

[Devout Centrist]

It really looks like everything everywhere is breaking for the Dems.   I'm not one to call the race before it's over, but polling is getting pretty bad for the GOP here.    Is anyone else noticing this late swing to the Dems?

Let me give you an analogy. Passengers on the RMS Titanic said that they believed the ship to be almost unsinkable. The night of the disaster, they saw a light on the horizon from a nearby ship. They thought they would easily be saved. Many didn’t want to go out onto the cold deck, with nothing but pure darkness surrounding the ship. The ship held up extremely well for the first 2 hours and 20 minutes.

It was only in the last 20 minutes that the ship plunged, broke up, and foundered.

[Brittain33]

CNN's poll was complete catnip for Trump, wasn't it? Especially since it would be extraordinary for Dems to actually achieve that result.

[Yank2133]

Silver and Wasserman have both compared 2018 to 2012 and I think that is a good comparison.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I haven't cared about a Morning Consult, Ipsos, YouGov, Rasmussen, Harris, etc poll all cycle and I am not going to start now.

Yep. I am feeling considerably happier than at the same time yesterday when we had just gotten the NBC/WSJ and ABC/WaPo D+7 and D+8 polls.

What a difference a CNN D+13 and an IBD/TIPP D+9 poll makes.

The only thing that can send me into sweats at this point is if FOX or some other quality live phone pollster suddenly comes out of nowhere and drops a D+5 poll on us or something like that.

But I don't really care what the internet/robopollsters say that much.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Silver and Wasserman have both compared 2018 to 2012 and I think that is a good comparison.

Yep, the majority in the House will maintain it, while the challenger to the Senate will fall short...just like in 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't cared about a Morning Consult, Ipsos, YouGov, Rasmussen, Harris, etc poll all cycle and I am not going to start now.

Yep. I am feeling considerably happier than at the same time yesterday when we had just gotten the NBC/WSJ and ABC/WaPo D+7 and D+8 polls.

What a difference a CNN D+13 and an IBD/TIPP D+9 poll makes.

The only thing that can send me into sweats at this point is if FOX or some other quality live phone pollster suddenly comes out of nowhere and drops a D+5 poll on us or something like that.

But I don't really care what the internet/robopollsters say that much.

If the margin is really in the 8-9 range, you would expect occasional polls around D+13 and D+5.  So don't panic if a D+5 comes up even from a top pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059479363501125633

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059479363501125633

So, the best the GOP can hope for is that they might win 3 Senate seats and lose one and net two while losing the house by like 215-220.

The best the Dems can do is give the Senate to Pence but have a margin in the house similar to what Republicans had in 2011. About a 1994 style swing.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Silver and Wasserman have both compared 2018 to 2012 and I think that is a good comparison.

Yep, the majority in the House will maintain it, while the challenger to the Senate will fall short...just like in 2012.

Do you mean the GOP wil keep both houses? That would be a disaster for the Democrats.

[Yank2133]

Silver and Wasserman have both compared 2018 to 2012 and I think that is a good comparison.

Yep, the majority in the House will maintain it, while the challenger to the Senate will fall short...just like in 2012.

Lol, that isn’t what they meant. But you knew that already.

[Gass3268]

Suffolk/USA Today did county "bellwether" polls for Florida and Ohio:

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059474764652298241

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059475832157147137

I really don't consider either of these counties to be real bellweathers any more. The fact that Volusia is tied after going for Trump by 13 and Brown and Cordray are up in Clark County, which Trump won by 19, speaks volumes.

[libertpaulian]

Suffolk/USA Today did county "bellwether" polls for Florida and Ohio:

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059474764652298241

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059475832157147137

I really don't consider either of these counties to be real bellweathers any more. The fact that Volusia is tied after going for Trump by 13 and Brown and Cordray are up in Clark County, which Trump won by 19, speaks volumes.

If Scott is struggling to win in a county that he won by 4% in 2014, and Gillum is actually *ahead* in this county, then Scott and DeSantis have problems...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Suffolk/USA Today did county "bellwether" polls for Florida and Ohio:

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059474764652298241

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059475832157147137

I really don't consider either of these counties to be real bellweathers any more. The fact that Volusia is tied after going for Trump by 13 and Brown and Cordray are up in Clark County, which Trump won by 19, speaks volumes.

I remember when Elk County was somehow a presidential bellwether for Pennsylvania. Was a great system until it failed entirely.

[Nyvin]

Volusia County?!?   If the Dems are winning or even close there then the GOP really is screwed!

[Gass3268]

Volusia County?!?   If the Dems are winning or even close there then the GOP really is screwed!

This is in DeSantis' home district too.