2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

[Dr. Arch]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

Holy crap. Late deciders seem to be breaking very heavily for Democrats.

[Gass3268]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

Holy crap. Late deciders seem to be breaking very heavily for Democrats.

This is that USC poll that was +17 last week.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

I don't see it being that large, but I'm a little more optimistic we might hit a 10% margin.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

[libertpaulian]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

The GOP snagged 63 seats with a 7% victory.

[CookieDamage]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

The GOP snagged 63 seats with a 7% victory.

With a 15% margin, I could definitely see Dems gaining >45 seats. Heitkamp could still lose but I wouldn't be surprised if no other Sen Dems lost and we maybe picked up Beto. Wishful thinking theaux.

[Sestak]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

The GOP snagged 63 seats with a 7% victory.

Because there was a lot of blue districts where Dems hadn't done well in presidential races in years.

Not happening tomorrow unless the wave is much larger.

[Doimper]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

Put it in my veins

[Crumpets]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

Here's some #Analysis:
LA Times correctly called Trump winning -> Good pollster
LA Times's last national poll before the 2016 election had Trump +5 nationally -> Not good! Time to unskew!
Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points. -> LA Times was 7 points too Republican.
15+7 = 22
QED: Good pollster predicts 22 point Democratic victory

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

The GOP snagged 63 seats with a 7% victory.

A 7% victory but something like an 18% swing from the previous year.

Then again, there are a lot of Republican seats in places like Ohio and North Carolina that could fall rapidly if the polls miss and the margin ends up north of 12%

[Calthrina950]

Their poll was the most accurate predicting 2016. (Clinton by 2% vs. actual 2.1%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_nov05

Interesting. And it's also interesting to see people on here laughing at Rasmussen. If you look at the report, they actually underestimated Republicans four years ago. And they were one of the few polls (along with IBD and LA Times) to catch Trump's upset victory two years ago. It's possible that they are underestimating again, but this time those who are being underestimated are the Democrats. Even though I believe the Democrats will narrowly flip the House tomorrow, I also know that there is still much uncertainty about what will happen. A wide range of possibilities is out there, from a narrow Republican hold to massive Democratic gains on par with 1994 and 2010.

[Yank2133]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

The GOP snagged 63 seats with a 7% victory.

With a 15% margin, I could definitely see Dems gaining >45 seats. Heitkamp could still lose but I wouldn't be surprised if no other Sen Dems lost and we maybe picked up Beto. Wishful thinking theaux.

Yeah. It is hard seeing the Democrats losing the senate if they won the PV by 15. Heitkamp might still be screwed in that situation, but there is a good chance that they would have flipped TX or TN.

Anyway, I think the LA poll is off by 5-7 points.

[henster]

Surprised we didn't get one final FOX News poll no Quinn either.

[Xing]

Well, I'd be stunned if Democrats won the PV by double digits, but I suppose that if they're a polling error away from losing the House, they're a similar polling error away from that as well.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1059667306836574209

[Pericles]

Increasingly, it seems to me a normal polling error would only make the House close-perhaps a slight tossup, and Democrats could eke out a win in the House with around 220 seats and getting quite a few governorships, though they'd lose up to 3 Senate seats. Still, maybe I'll be proven wrong, but a Republican win is a distant enough possibility that lots needs to go right for them rather than them just getting lucky on the margins.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

76-24% Democrat. They also estimate that 62.6% (+/– 2%) of registered Latino voters will cast their vote.

Source

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

76-24% Democrat. They also estimate that 62.6% (+/– 2%) of registered Latino voters will cast their vote.

Source

63% in a midterm would be unprecedented. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

76-24% Democrat. They also estimate that 62.6% (+/– 2%) of registered Latino voters will cast their vote.

Source

63% in a midterm would be unprecedented. I'll believe it when I see it.

Even cutting 10 points off would be significant. Based on early vote it does look like Latino voters are turning out more and are more engaged. Does that last into tomorrow?

[Gass3268]

The final Ipsos/Reuters:

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Source

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1059655032394706944

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

[Crumpets]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Nice!

[Brittain33]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Nice!

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.