2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 168273 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #700 on: November 06, 2018, 09:28:57 AM »
Gallup had it at D+7 back in '06...
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #701 on: November 06, 2018, 09:30:26 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:28:34 AM

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.
This number is probably skewed because of how freaked out and nihilistic Dems are right now
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KingSweden
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« Reply #702 on: November 06, 2018, 09:33:03 AM »

*rubs chin*
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Gass3268
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« Reply #703 on: November 06, 2018, 09:35:32 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 06, 2018, 09:30:26 AM
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:28:34 AM

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.
This number is probably skewed because of how freaked out and nihilistic Dems are right now

I think you are correct:
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Brittain33
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« Reply #704 on: November 06, 2018, 09:36:27 AM »
D+12 in '08 (53-41)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #705 on: November 06, 2018, 09:39:37 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:28:34 AM

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.
One word: 2016
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Gass3268
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« Reply #706 on: November 06, 2018, 09:45:43 AM »

This should bump the GCB over 9 on 538 and maybe over 8 on RCP, if they include it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #707 on: November 06, 2018, 10:00:33 AM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on November 06, 2018, 09:39:37 AM
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:28:34 AM

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.
One word: 2016

Technically, that's at least two words (twenty sixteen, two thousand sixteen, etc.)

I'll get my coat. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #708 on: November 06, 2018, 10:00:54 AM »

8.7 on 538 (50.7-42.0)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #709 on: November 06, 2018, 10:08:09 AM »

Doesn't look like they have included it (yet?)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #710 on: November 06, 2018, 10:17:03 AM »

They did.  You can see it added today on the Latest Polls page.  On the GCB page, click "Show More Polls" to see it; because the sample period is a little older (Oct. 15-28) it's not near the top.
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #711 on: November 06, 2018, 10:19:03 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:17:03 AM

They did.  You can see it added today on the Latest Polls page.  On the GCB page, click "Show More Polls" to see it; because the sample period is a little older (Oct. 15-28) it's not near the top.

Which is interesting in itself, because that's the post-Kavanuagh period where most polls showed Democrats losing ground.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #712 on: November 06, 2018, 10:29:20 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:17:03 AM

They did.  You can see it added today on the Latest Polls page.  On the GCB page, click "Show More Polls" to see it; because the sample period is a little older (Oct. 15-28) it's not near the top.

Ah, didn't know it was that old. Thanks!
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #713 on: November 06, 2018, 03:01:13 PM »
The 538 GCB tracker ends up at 8.7.
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Person Man
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« Reply #714 on: November 06, 2018, 03:20:33 PM »

So anything between 6.2 and 11.2 is what we are looking at?
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RI
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« Reply #715 on: November 07, 2018, 09:06:59 PM »
Turns out that if you just averaged CNN and Rasmussen, you'd have been dead on.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #716 on: November 08, 2018, 12:12:46 PM »
Need to wait for California to finish counting before we know what the final numbers is.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #717 on: November 08, 2018, 04:53:48 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on November 02, 2018, 09:51:38 PM
Quote from: freepcrusher on November 02, 2018, 05:48:13 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 01, 2018, 07:56:30 PM
VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

there's a good chance Kaine got 60% in VA-10, he got in the low to mid 60s in Fairfax, PW and Loudoun and I don't know if the shenandoah #s was enough to offset it.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #718 on: November 08, 2018, 07:29:39 PM »
Quote from: freepcrusher on November 08, 2018, 04:53:48 PM
Quote from: darthpi on November 02, 2018, 09:51:38 PM
Quote from: freepcrusher on November 02, 2018, 05:48:13 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 01, 2018, 07:56:30 PM
VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

there's a good chance Kaine got 60% in VA-10, he got in the low to mid 60s in Fairfax, PW and Loudoun and I don't know if the shenandoah #s was enough to offset it.

Anyway I knew Comstock was toast but here I was thinking that the 5 million the CLF burnt would atleast bring her margin to maybe 10 points.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #719 on: November 09, 2018, 04:25:43 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 07:29:39 PM
Quote from: freepcrusher on November 08, 2018, 04:53:48 PM
Quote from: darthpi on November 02, 2018, 09:51:38 PM
Quote from: freepcrusher on November 02, 2018, 05:48:13 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 01, 2018, 07:56:30 PM
VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

there's a good chance Kaine got 60% in VA-10, he got in the low to mid 60s in Fairfax, PW and Loudoun and I don't know if the shenandoah #s was enough to offset it.

Anyway I knew Comstock was toast but here I was thinking that the 5 million the CLF burnt would atleast bring her margin to maybe 10 points.

The fact that both parties lit millions of dollars on fire here was a case study in political malpractice. Comstock would've lost even in a Dem ripple.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #720 on: November 09, 2018, 03:50:20 PM »
So Wasserman already has the House PV margin at about 6 points, and that's with tons of votes from California left to count. How high do you think it could get?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #721 on: November 09, 2018, 03:53:49 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 09, 2018, 03:50:20 PM
So Wasserman already has the House PV margin at about 6 points, and that's with tons of votes from California left to count. How high do you think it could get?

Hillary gained like 2 points from California after election day right? So probably around 8?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #722 on: November 09, 2018, 03:57:21 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 09, 2018, 03:50:20 PM
So Wasserman already has the House PV margin at about 6 points, and that's with tons of votes from California left to count. How high do you think it could get?

Probably about 7%, maybe a bit more.  8 seems like a stretch.

Incidentally, if the Democrats end up with 232-233 seats, they would also be about +7% in number of seats, so the PV and seat distribution would match pretty closely.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #723 on: November 09, 2018, 03:59:24 PM »
Should I just change 2018 to 2020 in the thread title and have this one rollover for 2020's GCBs? Thread seems small enough to keep it going tbh.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #724 on: November 09, 2018, 04:00:52 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on November 09, 2018, 03:59:24 PM
Should I just change 2018 to 2020 in the thread title and have this one rollover for 2020's GCBs? Thread seems small enough to keep it going tbh.

I don't feel strongly either way about it, but it seems likely that we'll get very few GCB polls for a while.
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