2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[jaichind]

My current count has it at Dem 53.04% GOP 45.25% or Dem lead of 7.78% with some more CA votes to come.  I already built my subjective model to assume all seats have both Dem and GOP candidates as well as count DC at large results and currently that has it at Dem 52.76% GOP 46.01% or a gap of 6.75%.  I think rest of CA votes should push up the Dem lead by 0.4%-0.6% GCB lead will end up being somewhere around 7.2%.

[politicallefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064202106922520577

This is really stunning tbh. And of course, 1970 is an odd one because Nixon won a low plurality in 1968.

[Gustaf]

And also Democrats dominated the Congressional vote due to residual Southern strength.

[jaichind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064202106922520577

This is really stunning tbh. And of course, 1970 is an odd one because Nixon won a low plurality in 1968.

Is this not a function of very high midterm turnout in 2018 relative to 2016.  I think a fair comparison would be then to take the ruling party total vote in the midterm and compare it to the ruling party Prez total vote.  I suspect 2018 GOP does fairly well on that metric.  For sure it will easily beat 2010 and 1994 by a large margin and most likely beat 2002 which was suppose to be a very good year for the ruling party.  In fact I am sure if we do the math the GOP 2018 total vote as a percentage of the prev Prez vote would most likely exceed the 1934 Dems.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1064570610506973184

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1064570610506973184

It had a pretty clear D bias in the Senate (with the notable exceptions of NV and TX).

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1064570610506973184

It had a pretty clear D bias in the Senate (with the notable exceptions of NV and TX).

I think that the D bias in states like MO, IN, and OH was, to an extent, offset by the R bias in NV and TX. Plus, some states like AZ, WI, MI, and PA had pretty accurate polls (that's a big change from 2016), so I'm guessing that the R/D biases that did exist canceled each other out to a much larger extent than they did in 2016.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

Wow was I wrong, Cam Cavasso did not even win a single neighborhood, and did significantly worse than the opponents of Ige and Hanabusa. Got beaten by over 50 points, and barely above 20% of the vote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

Wow was I wrong, Cam Cavasso did not even win a single neighborhood, and did significantly worse than the opponents of Ige and Hanabusa. Got beaten by over 50 points, and barely above 20% of the vote.

Wow, this district has really gone left since 2010, not that it was ever competitive.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Heck, Cavasso even did much worse than that Ron Curtis guy facing Hirono.

[Bidenworth2020]

Heck, Cavasso even did much worse than that Ron Curtis guy facing Hirono.

you said he would get 40.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The national PV margin has reached 8.6. One more point and it will be on par with 538's GCB tracker.

I'm actually surprised, given that there is a history of the out-party underperforming GCB polls in wave years.

[Thatkat04]

The national PV margin has reached 8.6. One more point and it will be on par with 538's GCB tracker.

I'm actually surprised, given that there is a history of the out-party underperforming GCB polls in wave years.

In the RCP average, Democrats underperformed their average in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. So yeah, this is the first midterm in close to 20 years where Democrats didn't underperform.

[lfromnj]

The national PV margin has reached 8.6. One more point and it will be on par with 538's GCB tracker.

I'm actually surprised, given that there is a history of the out-party underperforming GCB polls in wave years.

In the RCP average, Democrats underperformed their average in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. So yeah, this is the first midterm in close to 20 years where Democrats didn't underperform.

they did though IMO because the GCB doesn't take into account of uncontested districts.
Not that it really matters.

[Ebsy]

We haven't been comparing against adjusted GCB totals from previous years though, so until all of those numbers are calculated, I am not sure the current ones are meaningful at all. Frankly, that the GOP didn't compete in a number of districts while the Democrats ran in almost all of them is a significant part of their victory, so penalizing them in analysis for this seems inane.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

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[Politician]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

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But muh "most accurate poll of 2016"!

[Tender Branson]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

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Wasn't the adjusted D lead something like D+7 only ?

There were a lot of races which had no Republicans running and therefore were uncontested.

Uncontested races shouldn't exist. They just distort the results.

Still, Rasmussen was the worst though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wasn't the adjusted D lead something like D+7 only ?

There were a lot of races which had no Republicans running and therefore were uncontested.

Uncontested races shouldn't exist. They just distort the results.

Still, Rasmussen was the worst though.

If the GCB polls included voters in those districts with uncontested or one-party races (I have no idea if this is the case), then no adjustment is necessary or appropriate.

[Thatkat04]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wasn't the adjusted D lead something like D+7 only ?

There were a lot of races which had no Republicans running and therefore were uncontested.

Uncontested races shouldn't exist. They just distort the results.

Still, Rasmussen was the worst though.

It's a stupid metric. The Popular vote is the popular vote, regardless if Republicans didn't bother to field candidates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wasn't the adjusted D lead something like D+7 only ?

There were a lot of races which had no Republicans running and therefore were uncontested.

Uncontested races shouldn't exist. They just distort the results.

Still, Rasmussen was the worst though.

If the GCB polls included voters in those districts with uncontested or one-party races (I have no idea if this is the case), then no adjustment is necessary or appropriate.

Well, even if those voters were included in the poll, they were given the option to vote Republican, which they wouldn't in the actual election. I'd like to see serious efforts to model this effect, though, so we can't say for sure if it was worth 1 point, or 1.5 or 0.5.

[Thatkat04]

Also should be brought up, Florida had 4 congressional races where the incumbent democrats weren't even on the ballot. Thats hundreds of thousands of potential votes that democrats didn't get to add to their popular vote totals. I.E, I think Florida at least partially cancels out a good chunk of the races with no republican candidates.

[Virginiá]

If one is to go try and adjust the results to account for uncontested seats, it only makes sense to adjust all other elections as well, at least if you're making comparisons. I posted a TargetSmart analysis tweet the other day that shows if you factor in uncontested seats, basically every party that got a wave sees their total House popular vote margin reduced. So there is no point in bothering with this.

eg, you can't be like, "oh, 2018 w/ uncontesteds factored in is barely more than 2010," because 2010 itself w/ uncontesteds ends up like 2 points lower as well. I think that says something too, because if we want to do this, then 2010 and 2014 look really weak wrt to the popular vote:

Midterms with uncontested races factored into result:

2010: R+4.6
2014: R+3.2
2018: D+7.3

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306940.msg6574826#msg6574826


It also goes to show that Democrats consistently earn more support from the people in America, but Republicans have a smaller but more reliable base of voters and more importantly, a system that is structurally biased towards their coalition, allowing smaller wins to reap bigger rewards.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You guys are scumbags for cheering for my defeat. I have done such great work for my community and you supported a biscoto who doesn't even live in the district over me. I worked so hard to be moderate and nice but it looks like Hollywood liberals won't appreciate a Republican no matter how moderate they are. I feel so socially isolated. All of my friends in the GOP bullied me for being a RINO, while all of the dems bullied me for being a conservative.

In addition, my wife left me and now without her income or my congressional salary, I can no longer pay for my mortgage. Hope you guys are super happy that you got one extra Democrap in Congress who will be a globalist open borders Pelosi drone... you filhos da puta idiotas ruined my life.

[Pericles]

You guys are scumbags for cheering for my defeat. I have done such great work for my community and you supported a biscoto who doesn't even live in the district over me. I worked so hard to be moderate and nice but it looks like Hollywood liberals won't appreciate a Republican no matter how moderate they are. I feel so socially isolated. All of my friends in the GOP bullied me for being a RINO, while all of the dems bullied me for being a conservative.

In addition, my wife left me and now without her income or my congressional salary, I can no longer pay for my mortgage. Hope you guys are super happy that you got one extra Democrap in Congress who will be a globalist open borders Pelosi drone... you filhos da puta idiotas ruined my life.

lmao