2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pollster]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

[wesmoorenerd]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

[Brittain33]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

Yes, the PVI is R+12. Collin Peterson is there, UT-4 is R+13, and OK-5 and SC-1 are hanging out at R+10 but that's it among ~50 Republicans.

[wesmoorenerd]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

Yes, the PVI is R+12. Collin Peterson is there, UT-4 is R+13, and OK-5 and SC-1 are hanging out at R+10 but that's it among ~50 Republicans.

Collin Peterson is a longtime incumbent and all three of the districts you mentioned are trending toward the Dems. NC-03 has neither of those factors.

[Brittain33]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

Yes, the PVI is R+12. Collin Peterson is there, UT-4 is R+13, and OK-5 and SC-1 are hanging out at R+10 but that's it among ~50 Republicans.

Collin Peterson is a longtime incumbent and all three of the districts you mentioned are trending toward the Dems. NC-03 has neither of those factors.

I completely agree. I mention those as odd exceptions.

[IceSpear]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

[Young Conservative]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

[Brittain33]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

how do you calculate “of four”? I thought there were five seats up for election in Connecticut alone.

[IceSpear]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

Not sure, there were quite a few state legislative special elections where the GOP did surprisingly well in 2017-2018, right? I'd say right now it's inconclusive due to the small sample size, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if the trend stopped or even reversed.

[Young Conservative]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

how do you calculate “of four”? I thought there were five seats up for election in Connecticut alone.

Sorry, it was a typo. I meant three OR four.

[Boobs]

Jan McDowell (candidate for TX-24 in 2016 and 2018) is claiming that Kim Olson is considering running in TX-24. Idk how reliable this is, but rumors belong in the megathread, right?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

[img width=760]

Jan McDowell (candidate for TX-24 in 2016 and 2018) is claiming that Kim Olson is considering running in TX-24. Idk how reliable this is, but rumors belong in the megathread, right?

Both are wonderful candidates and I'd be happy with either, although I prefer Olson.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Former Fulton County Commission chairman John Eaves (D) has filed to run in GA-07.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

[lfromnj]

isnt olson a carpetbagger?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

Literally nobody cares about cross-district carpetbagging

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

Literally nobody cares about cross-district carpetbagging

This is utterly false.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Scott Taylor is hellbent on destroying his political career altogether.

Glorious news!  I was worried he might run for VA-2 again.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

Literally nobody cares about cross-district carpetbagging

This is utterly false.

Depends on how transient an area is it seems. It doesn’t seem to hurt people in places where a lot of the population doesn’t have deep family ties to an area (think: California). But it certainly seems to hurt at the margins at the very least. Like that nutcase who lost the TX-07 primary last year, Tom McClintock, Alex Mooney’s embarrassing margins

Alex Mooney carpetbagged across state lines. There's a big difference between that and moving between districts in an already gerrymandered state.

[Beet]

Jaime Harrison (D-SC) has announced his campaign to challenge Lindsey Graham.

[S019]

Jaime Harrison (D-SC) has announced his campaign to challenge Lindsey Graham.

This belongs in the SC Megathread

He formed an explaratory committee, too look at the possibility of running

Anyway, he can run and be steamrolled by 15 points

[Sestak]

Jaime Harrison (D-SC) has announced his campaign to challenge Lindsey Graham.

This belongs in the SC Megathread

Considering this is the general recruitment megathread, it’s fine to repost this in both places.

[Jeppe]

Karen Handel announced on Twitter this morning that she is seeking a rematch against Lucy McBath in GA-06.