2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 167561 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #575 on: November 04, 2018, 06:12:50 PM »
IBD/TIPP GCB poll --- D+9

Dem 50
Rep 41

https://www.investors.com/politics/midterm-elections-democrats-generic-ballot-trump-approval-bid-tipp/

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Good news, this only had D+2 the last poll. This is another Live Phone poll, so it sort of balances out the ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ polls that looked a bit worse (and had Rs improving). This has the opposite trend of Dems improving, and 9 is just that little bit higher than 7 or 8 that makes it just a bit more comfortable.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #576 on: November 04, 2018, 06:15:39 PM »
It seems like there has been a small but distinct move toward the Democrats in the last few days, especially in the most competitive districts.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #577 on: November 04, 2018, 06:15:57 PM »

Aren't they moaning about how the unwashed masses don't appreciate Trump's brilliant leadership like they did a few months ago?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #578 on: November 04, 2018, 06:30:14 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2018, 06:15:39 PM
It seems like there has been a small but distinct move toward the Democrats in the last few days, especially in the most competitive districts.

Which doesn't seem surprising, as I would assume Indies/Undecideds break for Dems, as is tradition with the party out of power.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #579 on: November 04, 2018, 06:30:22 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2018, 07:04:28 PM by GeorgiaModerate »
HarrisX (for Scott Rasmussen), Nov. 2-4, 3000 adults registered voters including 2295 likely voters and 1890 "definite" voters (change from Oct. 30-Nov. 1)

Adults RV: D 45 (+2), R 38 (+1)

LV: D 51 (+5), R 41 (-1)

Definite voters: D 52 (+3), R 40 (-2)

EDIT: The original poll of 3000 is registered voters, not adults in general
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #580 on: November 04, 2018, 06:36:03 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2018, 06:30:22 PM
HarrisX (for Scott Rasmussen), Nov. 2-4, 3000 adults including 2295 likely voters and 1890 "definite" voters (change from Oct. 30-Nov. 1)

Adults: D 45 (+2), R 38 (+1)

LV: D 51 (+5), R 41 (-1)

Definite voters: D 52 (+3), R 40 (-2)

And again all of the noise is basically cancelling itself out.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #581 on: November 04, 2018, 06:39:23 PM »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win 👁 on November 04, 2018, 06:12:50 PM
IBD/TIPP GCB poll --- D+9

Dem 50
Rep 41

https://www.investors.com/politics/midterm-elections-democrats-generic-ballot-trump-approval-bid-tipp/

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Good news, this only had D+2 the last poll. This is another Live Phone poll, so it sort of balances out the ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ polls that looked a bit worse (and had Rs improving). This has the opposite trend of Dems improving, and 9 is just that little bit higher than 7 or 8 that makes it just a bit more comfortable.

This was the "Muh Kavanaugh Bump" poll along with NPR/PBS/Marist.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #582 on: November 04, 2018, 08:15:57 PM »
Lol!
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #583 on: November 04, 2018, 08:18:15 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 08:15:57 PM
Lol!


My....god....the blue wave is dead. Trump has won
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OneJ
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« Reply #584 on: November 04, 2018, 08:21:33 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 08:15:57 PM
Lol!



Looks like he’s been reading this thread too.
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Xing
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« Reply #585 on: November 04, 2018, 08:31:23 PM »
Quote from: OneJ on November 04, 2018, 08:21:33 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 08:15:57 PM
Lol!



Looks like he’s been reading this thread too.

It's been a theory for a long time that Nate Silver is secretly an Atlas user.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #586 on: November 04, 2018, 08:33:28 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2018, 08:47:43 PM by Virginiá »

There was a poster a few years ago whose writing style seemed like a perfect match for Harry Enten.  Haven't seen him post in a long time, though.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #587 on: November 04, 2018, 08:34:27 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2018, 08:47:37 PM by Virginiá »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on November 04, 2018, 08:32:42 PM

Watch it be someone like Bagel or NewYorkExpress or something ridiculous

Imagine if Nate Silver was olawakandi.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #588 on: November 04, 2018, 08:37:51 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2018, 08:47:32 PM by Virginiá »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on November 04, 2018, 08:34:27 PM
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on November 04, 2018, 08:32:42 PM

Watch it be someone like Bagel or NewYorkExpress or something ridiculous

Imagine if Nate Silver was olawakandi.

I remember when he was secretly Poblano on Daily Kos.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #589 on: November 04, 2018, 08:47:00 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 08:15:57 PM
Lol!



And this is what many Atlas posters are having fainting spells about. You people are utterly ridiculous.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #590 on: November 04, 2018, 08:54:24 PM »
From 538:




It's remarkable how parallel the lines have been.  All that's really happened is that they've both trended upward the last couple of months as undecided voters have made up their minds.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #591 on: November 04, 2018, 10:08:19 PM »
Quote from: Senator Rosen on November 04, 2018, 08:47:00 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 08:15:57 PM
Lol!



And this is what many Atlas posters are having fainting spells about. You people are utterly ridiculous.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #592 on: November 04, 2018, 11:27:58 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2018, 11:31:04 PM by Gass3268 »




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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #593 on: November 04, 2018, 11:30:40 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 11:27:58 PM


Partisanship is a hell of a drug
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #594 on: November 04, 2018, 11:34:09 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on November 04, 2018, 11:30:40 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 11:27:58 PM


Partisanship is a hell of a drug
Well, conservatives sure as hell ain't voting for someone who they disagree with on almost everything (and vice versa). That's what you see now that the two parties are basically on polar opposite ends.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #595 on: November 04, 2018, 11:37:25 PM »
Wyoming - AL

Liz Cheney (R) 55
Greg Hunter (D) 28
Richard Brubaker (L) 7
Daniel Clyde Cummings (C) 6

Source
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Gass3268
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« Reply #596 on: November 04, 2018, 11:41:29 PM »




Source
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Ebsy
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« Reply #597 on: November 04, 2018, 11:54:09 PM »
Change Research has been producing some... erratic results. Better to just junk them all.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #598 on: November 05, 2018, 01:28:30 AM »
Nate is right that there hasn't been significant movement in the GCB tracker from the past two weeks or so. However, one thing that seems to be happening is that, back then, the quality pollsters tended to show the best results for Democrats, while now their lead is higher in lower-quality ones. It might not mean anything (even a "quality" pollster can screw up, as 2016 showed us), but it's a tidbit worth keeping in mind.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #599 on: November 05, 2018, 03:42:11 AM »
Morning Consult joins Rasmussen in finding the generic to be D+3.  If they are correct the GOP RETAINS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.

I think they are a little low.  I believe it will be D+5 or 6.  That should put the Democrats in the range of 220 to 225. I do not think with that small a majority they will be able to do much damage. 

 I think that is best for Trump, too.  If the GOP were to keep the House, Trump would get the wrong message for 2020.
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