2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Badger]

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

If Newman wins, the Democratic Party will continue its descent into being the party of the woke, "wine-track" liberals, rather than a party with room for ideological diversity and for social moderation.

Anti-choicers don’t belong in the party, sorry.

Respectfully disagree. I may disagree with them, but I would much rather have a Ben McAdams then a Mia Love in the house, or a Joe manchin rather than the schmuck who ran against him in the Senate, 7 days a week and twice on Sundays.

One has to accept that there are broad swaths of America where opposition to abortion is considerable, but voters may still support a moderate to left-of-center Democrat over a hardcore conservative Republican.

That said, lipinski's District is not one of them, considering Democratic presidential candidates consistently win here by between 15 and 20 percent. Based on pvi alone, this would be the equivalent of someone with Doug Jones political views running in a Statewide Republican primary in South Carolina or Georgia. Now, assuming he wasn't running against Roy Moore, how many of you DieHard Defenders of bipartisanship and giving moderate voices a chance would be rooting for him over whatever staunch conservative would wind up as his primary opponent? Methinks the response would be crickets chirping.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

If Newman wins, the Democratic Party will continue its descent into being the party of the woke, "wine-track" liberals, rather than a party with room for ideological diversity and for social moderation.

Anti-choicers don’t belong in the party, sorry.

Didn’t you vote for Pat Toomey?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1169717436435914753?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

If Newman wins, the Democratic Party will continue its descent into being the party of the woke, "wine-track" liberals, rather than a party with room for ideological diversity and for social moderation.

Anti-choicers don’t belong in the party, sorry.

Lots of black voters are pro-life

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

If Newman wins, the Democratic Party will continue its descent into being the party of the woke, "wine-track" liberals, rather than a party with room for ideological diversity and for social moderation.

I don't have a problem with ideological diversity, so long as it's not in deep blue seats. I'm all for nominating pro-life Democrats in races that necessitate it, like MS-Gov, LA-Gov, WV-Sen, etc.

And for all the Republicans that claim to hate the Kennedy family, the Lipinskis are just about as repulsive as a family.

[Oryxslayer]

Ossoff to run against Perdue.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Ossoff to run against Perdue.

Oh dear.

[Calthrina950]

Ossoff to run against Perdue.

Oh dear.

Perdue would beat Ossoff fairly easily, by about 5-10 points or so. And Ossoff would definitely drag down Democratic chances of winning the other seat.

[MT Treasurer]

Ossoff to run against Perdue.

Oh dear.

Perdue would beat Ossoff fairly easily, by about 5-10 points or so. And Ossoff would definitely drag down Democratic chances of winning the other seat.

Ossoff wouldn’t lose by 5-10 points in a state like Georgia. Maybe 3-4 points at worst. Why would he drag down Democratic chances of winning the other seat? He might not be the "strongest candidate", but he’s hardly some Democratic Todd Akin.

[Calthrina950]

Ossoff to run against Perdue.

Oh dear.

Perdue would beat Ossoff fairly easily, by about 5-10 points or so. And Ossoff would definitely drag down Democratic chances of winning the other seat.

Ossoff wouldn’t lose by 5-10 points in a state like Georgia. Maybe 3-4 points at worst. Why would he drag down Democratic chances of winning the other seat? He might not be the "strongest candidate", but he’s hardly some Democratic Todd Akin.

I was only providing an estimate of how I think that race might transpire. It is not difficult for me to see him losing by ~5-6% or so. We already know from the special election in GA-06 back in 2017 that he is not an impressive candidate, and I suspect Perdue will run at least a point or two, perhaps more, ahead of Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Don't know why people are rewriting Ossoff to be a bad candidate. He raised a lot of $$, and he only did slightly worse than McBath, and that was a wave year.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't know why people are rewriting Ossoff to be a bad candidate. He raised a lot of $$, and he only did slightly worse than McBath, and that was a wave year.

Exactly. The guy was a rookie and stepped up to the plate when nobody else did. He ran a good campaign and lost by 4 in a district where Democrats were always losing by 20-30 points. And the infrastructure he left behind helped "unelectable" McBath finish the job a year later.
If only all bad candidates were like him.   

[Oryxslayer]

CA-50: Former CA-49 Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is forming an exploratory committee-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1166899957401415680

I dislike carpetbagging politicians. Issa retired because he could not win reelection in his old district, and now he's thinking about shifting to a safer, less competitive seat. And while Issa would be an "improvement" over the corrupt and scandal-plagued Hunter, that's not saying much.

There's also the popular (in conservative circles) DeMaio who would be an improvement of both these losers. It's a shame that only Najjar is running currently for the Dems, because so many high profile R's would raise the possibility of a DvD lockout - and I'm normally the guy who pushs back on the top two lockout scenarios in non-safe seats.

Also Issa Represented 'some' of the present CA-50 under the 2000 map, so it's a little less heinous, even if his motives are poisonous.

Issa's officially in for whenever the Hunter seat opens up now.

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171464612463558657

[MT Treasurer]

Former MT GOP chair Debra Lamm is running for MT-AL and against socialism or something

Lamm said the upcoming election is a battle over a future “defined by socialism or American exceptionalism,” and that as a member of Congress she would “stand with President Trump to protect this country and our Montana way of life.” [...]

Four other Republicans already are in the race, including two statewide officeholders: State Auditor Matt Rosendale, Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, Helena farmer-rancher Joe Dooling and Corvallis Superintendent of Schools Tim Johnson.

Three Democrats also are competing for the seat, including former state Rep. Kathleen Williams of Bozeman, who lost the 2018 general election to Gianforte by five percentage points, 51 percent to 46 percent.

The other Democrats in the contest are rancher Matt Rains of Simms and state Rep. Tom Winter of Missoula.

https://www.krtv.com/news/montana-news/former-state-gop-chair-becomes-fifth-republican-in-2020-u-s-house-race

[Tekken_Guy]

Former MT GOP chair Debra Lamm is running for MT-AL and against socialism or something

Lamm said the upcoming election is a battle over a future “defined by socialism or American exceptionalism,” and that as a member of Congress she would “stand with President Trump to protect this country and our Montana way of life.” [...]

Four other Republicans already are in the race, including two statewide officeholders: State Auditor Matt Rosendale, Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, Helena farmer-rancher Joe Dooling and Corvallis Superintendent of Schools Tim Johnson.

Three Democrats also are competing for the seat, including former state Rep. Kathleen Williams of Bozeman, who lost the 2018 general election to Gianforte by five percentage points, 51 percent to 46 percent.

The other Democrats in the contest are rancher Matt Rains of Simms and state Rep. Tom Winter of Missoula.

https://www.krtv.com/news/montana-news/former-state-gop-chair-becomes-fifth-republican-in-2020-u-s-house-race

Have we found Tester’s 2024 opponent?

[MT Treasurer]

Have we found Tester’s 2024 opponent?

God help us if it’s Lamm. At this point Republicans should honestly just hope that Gianforte pulls a Rick Scott (beats Cooney and then runs for Senate as a popular incumbent governor). If this doesn’t happen, I’d go with someone like Jon Bennion if he wins AG. 2018 was really a missed opportunity for Republicans, and Tester certainly won’t be any easier to beat in 2024 when the state will be even less Republican. Not that it can’t be done, but I’m not optimistic.

[Xing]

Have we found Tester’s 2024 opponent?

God help us if it’s Lamm. At this point Republicans should honestly just hope that Gianforte pulls a Rick Scott (beats Cooney and then runs for Senate as a popular incumbent governor). If this doesn’t happen, I’d go with someone like Jon Bennion if he wins AG. 2018 was really a missed opportunity for Republicans, and Tester certainly won’t be any easier to beat in 2024 when the state will be even less Republican. Not that it can’t be done, but I’m not optimistic.

Do you really think Montana will trend Democratic over the next few years? I'm not saying it will trend Republican, but even if Western Montana gets more Democratic, I could see Republican margins growing in Eastern Montana.

[lfromnj]

Don't know why people are rewriting Ossoff to be a bad candidate. He raised a lot of $$, and he only did slightly worse than McBath, and that was a wave year.

Losing an open seat election in a special election environment in a district which your party's presidential candidate nearly won is kinda bad.

Mcbath wasn't really paid attention to until very late because sour grapes and other stuff.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Have we found Tester’s 2024 opponent?

God help us if it’s Lamm. At this point Republicans should honestly just hope that Gianforte pulls a Rick Scott (beats Cooney and then runs for Senate as a popular incumbent governor). If this doesn’t happen, I’d go with someone like Jon Bennion if he wins AG. 2018 was really a missed opportunity for Republicans, and Tester certainly won’t be any easier to beat in 2024 when the state will be even less Republican. Not that it can’t be done, but I’m not optimistic.

Do you really think Montana will trend Democratic over the next few years? I'm not saying it will trend Republican, but even if Western Montana gets more Democratic, I could see Republican margins growing in Eastern Montana.

If a Democrat is in the WH I think MT will swing Republican but if a Republican is in the WH it will swing Dem. Montana is a very anti incumbent president state

[Gracile]

Sabato's Crystal Ball has made two rating changes in the wake of the North Carolina special elections:

NC-03: Likely R -> Safe R

NC-09: Toss-up -> Likely R

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/bidens-challenge-iowa-and-new-hampshire/

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Sabato's Crystal Ball has made two rating changes in the wake of the North Carolina special elections:

NC-03: Likely R -> Safe R

NC-09: Toss-up -> Likely R

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/bidens-challenge-iowa-and-new-hampshire/

I don't get why they moved NC-03 in the first place. NC-09 seems about right.

[Oryxslayer]

Sabato's Crystal Ball has made two rating changes in the wake of the North Carolina special elections:

NC-03: Likely R -> Safe R

NC-09: Toss-up -> Likely R

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/bidens-challenge-iowa-and-new-hampshire/

I don't get why they moved NC-03 in the first place. NC-09 seems about right.

Hurricane uncertainty that could (and kinda did, in a limited way) produce weird and unreproducible results.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

CA-48 Poll from TargetPoint and the CLF:

Michelle Steel - 42%
Harley Rouda - 42%
Undecided - 16%

+/- 5.3%, Conducted August 10-11

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1173100438708789248?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-48 Poll from TargetPoint and the CLF:

Michelle Steel - 42%
Harley Rouda - 42%
Undecided - 16%

+/- 5.3%, Conducted August 10-11

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1173100438708789248?s=20

R-internal.

Lean D, closer to Likely.

[Brittain33]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.