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September 15, 2019, 11:23:59 am
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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 87514 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1825 on: September 12, 2019, 12:09:47 pm »

Sabato's Crystal Ball has made two rating changes in the wake of the North Carolina special elections:

NC-03: Likely R -> Safe R

NC-09: Toss-up -> Likely R

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/bidens-challenge-iowa-and-new-hampshire/
I don't get why they moved NC-03 in the first place. NC-09 seems about right.

Hurricane uncertainty that could (and kinda did, in a limited way) produce weird and unreproducible results.
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LCameronOR
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« Reply #1826 on: Today at 12:37:51 am »

CA-48 Poll from TargetPoint and the CLF:

Michelle Steel - 42%
Harley Rouda - 42%
Undecided - 16%

+/- 5.3%, Conducted August 10-11

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Pittsburgh For Kamala
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« Reply #1827 on: Today at 12:50:27 am »

CA-48 Poll from TargetPoint and the CLF:

Michelle Steel - 42%
Harley Rouda - 42%
Undecided - 16%

+/- 5.3%, Conducted August 10-11



R-internal.

Lean D, closer to Likely.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1828 on: Today at 07:19:19 am »

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.
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Politician
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« Reply #1829 on: Today at 07:21:20 am »

I don't really see CA-48 falling unless Trump wins decently.
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136or142
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« Reply #1830 on: Today at 10:50:12 am »

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

Yes, but more likely in 2022 I think.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1831 on: Today at 11:15:31 am »

I say this as someone who spends a reasonable amount of time each year with relatives in CA-48, that this is probably the one OC seat that the GOP has a future in, especially because they seen to be winnowing their target list for 2020. All the 'ok' quality candidates seem to reside in Huntington beach or Newport, and there are quite a lot of GOP voters who voted against Rochrabacher and only him. For example both my grandparents who live down there are lockstep Reagan republicans, but their only blue vote in the last ten years was to kick out the Russo-phile, and they hope to get a better GOPer back in the seat. There's also a good chance that redistricting makes this seat even more republican and a marginal trump 2016 win, at the expense of making the surrounding seats more blue of course. Dropping everything west of Newport and then putting the south hills Mission Viejo region on the seat would do that. But Rouda still has a good chance of winning, and probably will if the Dems carry the present seat again.
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