2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Politician]

I don't really see CA-48 falling unless Trump wins decently.

[136or142]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

Yes, but more likely in 2022 I think.

[Oryxslayer]

I say this as someone who spends a reasonable amount of time each year with relatives in CA-48, that this is probably the one OC seat that the GOP has a future in, especially because they seen to be winnowing their target list for 2020. All the 'ok' quality candidates seem to reside in Huntington beach or Newport, and there are quite a lot of GOP voters who voted against Rochrabacher and only him. For example both my grandparents who live down there are lockstep Reagan republicans, but their only blue vote in the last ten years was to kick out the Russo-phile, and they hope to get a better GOPer back in the seat. There's also a good chance that redistricting makes this seat even more republican and a marginal trump 2016 win, at the expense of making the surrounding seats more blue of course. Dropping everything west of Newport and then putting the south hills Mission Viejo region on the seat would do that. But Rouda still has a good chance of winning, and probably will if the Dems carry the present seat again.

[Skill and Chance]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

I actually think Cisneros has more to worry about?  Smaller 2018 win in a district with a higher Clinton margin than the OC seats to its south. 

[Oryxslayer]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

I actually think Cisneros has more to worry about?  Smaller 2018 win in a district with a higher Clinton margin than the OC seats to its south.  

Difference is that some sections of the old republican asian vote broke away like the cubans for Kim, but unlike the cubans the majority stayed. If Kim is renominated in 2020, 2018 is her starting point, and she has to fight uphill against the Presidential year Hispanic vote (which was lower than 2016 in 2018), and negotiate the fact that the Dem Pres nominee will be improving on Clinton's margins here. If the GOP nominates some else, most importantly someone who isn't asian, then the sections of the asian community who backed Kim will return to the dem fold.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

Yes, but more likely in 2022 I think.

I doubt that. It’s really a D trending district.

[lfromnj]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

Yes, but more likely in 2022 I think.

I doubt that. It’s really a D trending district.

No , just because its D trending doesn't mean its Safe D for the complete near future. Although its almost impossible he loses in 2020 he can almost certainly in 2022 just like Rod Blum and Maine 2nd. Yes Trends are strong and some people probably should understand them more but bouncebacks and dead cat bounces still exist lol especially in wave years. Unless it goes through another massive trend(unlikely I do see 2016 trends continuing in 2020 but by much smaller amounts) the GOP can win it in 2022 in a D midterm.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Republicans are seriously going to attempt to take back seats like CA-25, CA-45 and CA-49.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1173705655850393601?s=20

[Gracile]

Not too surprising, but AOC endorsed Marie Newman in IL-03:

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1173972067592626177

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Republicans are seriously going to attempt to take back seats like CA-25, CA-45 and CA-49.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1173705655850393601?s=20

Good, only makes Queen Nancy’s job easier

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/speaker-nancy-pelosi-says-she-intends-win-2020-election-democrats-november-1397381%3famp=1

[Politician]

NE-2: GQR (Eastman internal)

Don Bacon 50
Kara Eastman 49

Don Bacon 53
Ann Ashford 46

Don Bacon 55
Gladys Harrison 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9yCoFXZjza8TkxLNDVqeUNFUFpoLUV6aVAtcVZBVXFvUGRF/view

[Young Conservative]

NE-2: GQR (Eastman internal)

Don Bacon 50
Kara Eastman 49

Don Bacon 53
Ann Ashford 46

Don Bacon 55
Gladys Harrison 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9yCoFXZjza8TkxLNDVqeUNFUFpoLUV6aVAtcVZBVXFvUGRF/view

Laughable.

[Gracile]

NE-2: GQR (Eastman internal)

Don Bacon 50
Kara Eastman 49

Don Bacon 53
Ann Ashford 46

Don Bacon 55
Gladys Harrison 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9yCoFXZjza8TkxLNDVqeUNFUFpoLUV6aVAtcVZBVXFvUGRF/view

Hopefully, if she wins the DCCC doesn't (stupidly) cut her off again.

[Calthrina950]

NE-2: GQR (Eastman internal)

Don Bacon 50
Kara Eastman 49

Don Bacon 53
Ann Ashford 46

Don Bacon 55
Gladys Harrison 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9yCoFXZjza8TkxLNDVqeUNFUFpoLUV6aVAtcVZBVXFvUGRF/view

Hopefully, if she wins the DCCC doesn't (stupidly) cut her off again.

Still, it doesn't speak too highly to her capabilities that Bacon leads her in the internal.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1174369480950124547

He's old, and every statewide Dem carried his seat last year. His seat is also a potential hit if NY loses two seats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1174369480950124547

He's old, and every statewide Dem carried his seat last year. His seat is also a potential hit if NY loses two seats.

[ON Progressive]

http://mchenrycountyblog.com/2019/09/18/oberweis-releases-august-8th-survey-results-very-favorable-to-his-campaign/

IL-14: McLaughlin (Oberweis internal from August)

Primary:
Oberweis 56%
Rezin 8%
Gradel 4%
33% undecided

General election:
Lauren Underwood (D) 47
Jim Oberweis (R) 38


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Gracile]

http://mchenrycountyblog.com/2019/09/18/oberweis-releases-august-8th-survey-results-very-favorable-to-his-campaign/

IL-14: McLaughlin (Oberweis internal from August)

Primary:
Oberweis 56%
Rezin 8%
Gradel 4%
33% undecided

General election:
Lauren Underwood (D) 47
Jim Oberweis (R) 38


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Lol, what's the point of even release those general election numbers? And I see they did that "informed ballot" BS as well (Oberweis leads Underwood 51-37 there).

[Young Conservative]

McLaughlin is great satire.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Overweight trailed in his own internal poll by 9%? Lmao

Edit: keeping this since autocorrect made a funny

[Frenchrepublican]

GOP internal poll for the Oberweiss campaign has Underwood winning 47/38

https://capitolfax.com/2019/09/19/oberweis-slammed-for-releasing-poll-that-has-him-trailing-by-9

[Politician]

GOP internal poll for the Oberweiss campaign has Underwood winning 47/38

https://capitolfax.com/2019/09/19/oberweis-slammed-for-releasing-poll-that-has-him-trailing-by-9

Already posted.

[Xing]

Yeah, but IL-14 is a Toss-Up because muh PVI and Trump won it in 2016 (by 6 points less than Romney.)

[IceSpear]

Yeah, but IL-14 is a Toss-Up because muh PVI and Trump won it in 2016 (by 6 points less than Romney.)

TrendsAreFake

[Landslide Lyndon]

To be fair, Oberweis is far from the strongest candidate Republicans can field.