2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[jaichind]

My current calculation of vote share are Dem 52.45% GOP 45.92%.  But there are a lot of caveat. Obviously the CA result is nowhere close to being in which will push up the Dem lead by 1% to 1.5% I suspect. BUT out of 535 races the Dems only had 3 races where a Dem candidate was no on the ballot (1 of them is a 2 GOP member CA race) while the GOP had 37 races where it did not have a candidate on the ballot (3 of them are a 3 Dem CA race.) 

A fair way to figure out the "real' GCP is to made subjective assumptions about what would the vote be IF both at least 1 GOP and DEM candidate was on the ballot.  Also we have to add in DC.  It will be completely subjective.  Based on just eyeballing it I think using that approach will get a Dem lead of around 6.0%-6.5% once we do this AND all the CA votes comes in.

[jaichind]

My current count is (which also includes DC at large) is Dem 52.6 GOP 45.7 or a gap of 6.9%.  As more of CA comes it will most likely go to around 8%. But once I adjust (subjectively) for the fact the GOP had 37 seats without a candidate and Dems only 3 the de facto GCB gap will end up around 6.5%

[jaichind]

My current count is (which also includes DC at large) is Dem 52.6 GOP 45.7 or a gap of 6.9%.  As more of CA comes it will most likely go to around 8%. But once I adjust (subjectively) for the fact the GOP had 37 seats without a candidate and Dems only 3 the de facto GCB gap will end up around 6.5%

How many of those 37 seats were really uncontested and how many were California top two Dem blowouts, though?

3 of the 37 are in CA where  the GOP did not make it into the second round.  Of course out of the 3 only 1 did the GOP even run a candidate in the first round.  1 additional one is on WA where the GOP did not make it into the second round.  There the GOP did run a candidate in the first round but did not make it.
But the net affect is that had there been a GOP candidate in these 37 seats the GOP vote would be higher.

[jaichind]

My current count has it at Dem 52.60% GOP 45.70% or Dem lead of 6.90% with a bunch of CA votes to come.  I already built my subjective model to assume all seats have both Dem and GOP candidates as well as count DC at large results and currently that has it at Dem 52.39% GOP 46.35% or a gap of 6.04%.  I think all of CA votes should push up the Dem lead by 0.5% to 1.0% so the GCB lead will be 6.5-7.0

Back in 2016 the House vote was GOP 48.99% Dem 48.12% or a GOP lead of 0.87%  If you apply my same subjective model of all seats have a Dem and GOP candidate it came out to be GOP 49.62% Dem 48.35% or a GOP lead of 1.27%.

[jaichind]

My current count has it at Dem 53.04% GOP 45.25% or Dem lead of 7.78% with some more CA votes to come.  I already built my subjective model to assume all seats have both Dem and GOP candidates as well as count DC at large results and currently that has it at Dem 52.76% GOP 46.01% or a gap of 6.75%.  I think rest of CA votes should push up the Dem lead by 0.4%-0.6% GCB lead will end up being somewhere around 7.2%.

[jaichind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064202106922520577

This is really stunning tbh. And of course, 1970 is an odd one because Nixon won a low plurality in 1968.

Is this not a function of very high midterm turnout in 2018 relative to 2016.  I think a fair comparison would be then to take the ruling party total vote in the midterm and compare it to the ruling party Prez total vote.  I suspect 2018 GOP does fairly well on that metric.  For sure it will easily beat 2010 and 1994 by a large margin and most likely beat 2002 which was suppose to be a very good year for the ruling party.  In fact I am sure if we do the math the GOP 2018 total vote as a percentage of the prev Prez vote would most likely exceed the 1934 Dems.