2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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If Pianoforte is only down by 0.5% in a Tester +10 poll, he'd definitely favored.

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Democrats are doing just as well in IA-04 as KS-02? Color me skeptical.

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Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

It seems more and more red districts are not looking completely safe for Republicans. I would guess at least a few more could slip through the cracks. Either way, it's looking like Republicans pretty much need to pull a royal flush to keep the House.

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Wait, we're seriously going all Chicken Little because of a statistically insignificant change in one poll? Oh yeah, I forgot, this is Atlas. The polls suggest what we already know: The House isn't a sure thing, but Democrats are heavily favored.

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Guys, let's stop with the unskewing. Take this as a call for action to get as many Dems voting this Tuesday.

I actually agree about the second sentence, though there should never not be a call for action to get people to vote.

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If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

Seriously. I know Atlas loves to overreact to things, but this is absolutely ridiculous.

People are having a hard time coping with the fact that the megagigaultratidalwave they've all been expecting might not happen.

It's well-documented that Democrats are terrible at the expectations game.

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Lol!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032

Looks like he’s been reading this thread too.

It's been a theory for a long time that Nate Silver is secretly an Atlas user.

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Well, I'd be stunned if Democrats won the PV by double digits, but I suppose that if they're a polling error away from losing the House, they're a similar polling error away from that as well.

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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1064570610506973184

It had a pretty clear D bias in the Senate (with the notable exceptions of NV and TX).

I think that the D bias in states like MO, IN, and OH was, to an extent, offset by the R bias in NV and TX. Plus, some states like AZ, WI, MI, and PA had pretty accurate polls (that's a big change from 2016), so I'm guessing that the R/D biases that did exist canceled each other out to a much larger extent than they did in 2016.

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As I predicted, Atlas is already freaking out about the CA-21 rating.

If you don't agree MAKE YOUR OWN RATINGS!

Uh, do you know Atlas? Nearly all of us do. Anyway, the TX ratings changes make sense (I'd even say TX-24 should be a pure Toss-Up), but CA-21 and IA-04...

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Have we found Tester’s 2024 opponent?

God help us if it’s Lamm. At this point Republicans should honestly just hope that Gianforte pulls a Rick Scott (beats Cooney and then runs for Senate as a popular incumbent governor). If this doesn’t happen, I’d go with someone like Jon Bennion if he wins AG. 2018 was really a missed opportunity for Republicans, and Tester certainly won’t be any easier to beat in 2024 when the state will be even less Republican. Not that it can’t be done, but I’m not optimistic.

Do you really think Montana will trend Democratic over the next few years? I'm not saying it will trend Republican, but even if Western Montana gets more Democratic, I could see Republican margins growing in Eastern Montana.

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Yeah, but IL-14 is a Toss-Up because muh PVI and Trump won it in 2016 (by 6 points less than Romney.)

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Republican challenger to Allred raises $475 thousand.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1181672420169662465

Very impressive.

This is also impressive.

Idk how to link tweets, but Maria Elvira Salazar raises over 500k in less than 2 months.

So Republicans are relying on Hillary Clinton districts that are flying left fast as hell to win back the House? Bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see how it pays off