2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ebsy]

They are very imprecise in their language there. If you are using the same pool of respondents, it is a panel survey, not a poll.

[Ebsy]

Interested to know how Change Research's patented Bias Correct technology has avoided the typical obstacles to polling in Indiana.

[Ebsy]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

If this and the PA-11 number is true, the PA GOP is going to get absolutely smashed at a level I've never seen a state party in a purple state get slaughtered.

Well, it happened in 2010.

[Ebsy]

Really does seem like Williams has the momentum going into election day. Will be pretty easy for those voting Tester to just vote for her as well.

[Ebsy]

Polling error towards the party in power seems like a remote possibility.

[Ebsy]

Polling error towards the party in power seems like a remote possibility.

It happened in 2006, 2010, and 2012, so I wouldn't call that remote.

Not really what happened in 2006 or 2010, just looking at an RCP average does not really tell a complete story.

[Ebsy]

Polling error towards the party in power seems like a remote possibility.

It happened in 2006, 2010, and 2012, so I wouldn't call that remote.

Not really what happened in 2006 or 2010, just looking at an RCP average does not really tell a complete story.

How would you measure it then? We're discussing the generic ballot here, so it only makes sense to compare previous generic ballot averages to the end results.

in 2010 for example you had a lot fewer generic ballot polls, and Rasmusssem (lol) and Gallup were showing consistently high numbers for the GOP while almost everyone else had more realistic numbers (around 6 points) that ended up close to the real result. Not sure I would call that systemic polling error.

[Ebsy]

Small subsamples.

[Ebsy]

The number of undecideds among independents straights credibility.

[Ebsy]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Really depends on vote distribution in competitive districts. Most prognosticators would tell you somewhere between 5-7 points.

[Ebsy]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

Am I missing something? Nate has it at 8.1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Not the polling margin, but what Democrats need to win by.

[Ebsy]

The JMC poll of WI-06 has got to be the most ridiculous poll I have seen all cycle:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1059164958464851970

Yes, of course Republicans have a 30 point ID lead in WI-06! Makes perfect sense!

[Ebsy]

Change Research has been producing some... erratic results. Better to just junk them all.

[Ebsy]

I haven't cared about a Morning Consult poll all cycle and I am not going to start now.

[Ebsy]

Need to wait for California to finish counting before we know what the final numbers is.

[Ebsy]

There are over 4 million ballots left to count in California that are heavily Democratic. 2 points is definitely doable.

[Ebsy]

We haven't been comparing against adjusted GCB totals from previous years though, so until all of those numbers are calculated, I am not sure the current ones are meaningful at all. Frankly, that the GOP didn't compete in a number of districts while the Democrats ran in almost all of them is a significant part of their victory, so penalizing them in analysis for this seems inane.

[Ebsy]

Her district is 58 percent white... not even that minority heavy.

[Ebsy]

How do you post a map that you made in Dave's Redistricting App? Asking because I made a map that has three safe D NOVA Clinton +double digits seats and a fourth likely D NOVA seat that is Clinton +5% without bacon stripping. Also VA-2 is Clinton +8% and VA-7 is Clinton +7% while satisfying the 40% black VRA requirements for VA-3 and 4.

You can take a screenshot of it and upload that to an image hosting site, then insert the image into your post. Still, this isn't the thread for maps like that.

[Ebsy]

I thought voter registration drives were basically illegal in Texas?