2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

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They need their "Dems in disarray" headline.

It is amazing how biased towards Republicans the general media is. If it was R+8, they would be writing the political obituary for house Democrats and Nancy Pelosi. I am serious, switch the positions. No one would be talking about the 15-20% chance Democrats have at holding the house.

Uh-because R+8 would make the House Safe R. D+8 only makes the House Likely D, and a reasonable polling error-to say D+5 would mean the Republicans could still hold the House, and even in some of the higher single digit margins there would be a chance they get lucky on a race by race basis. D+8 itself is very likely enough for Dems to win a majority, but it doesn't eliminate the possibility of a GOP win, gerrymandering means that lead is less safe than it would be for the Republicans(as the Republicans would therefore be winning by a landslide in the tipping-point district,  while now Democrats have a narrow lead in the tipping-point district).

[Pericles]

Des Moines Register / Selzer poll for IA congressional districts (GCB):

Iowa (statewide): D+6

IA-01 (Blum-R): D+7

IA-02 (Loebsack-D): D+12

IA-03 (Young-R): D+9

IA-04 (King-R): R+4

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https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/11/03/iowa-poll-suggests-closer-contest-steve-king-2018-jd-scholten-midterms-election-chances-vote-said/1872299002

Oh my Young is doing much worse than I expected, and this is another poll corroborating that King may be in real trouble. A 4-0 D Iowa delegation would be pretty amazing(and amusing) after 2016 too.

[Pericles]

Increasingly, it seems to me a normal polling error would only make the House close-perhaps a slight tossup, and Democrats could eke out a win in the House with around 220 seats and getting quite a few governorships, though they'd lose up to 3 Senate seats. Still, maybe I'll be proven wrong, but a Republican win is a distant enough possibility that lots needs to go right for them rather than them just getting lucky on the margins.

[Pericles]

You guys are scumbags for cheering for my defeat. I have done such great work for my community and you supported a biscoto who doesn't even live in the district over me. I worked so hard to be moderate and nice but it looks like Hollywood liberals won't appreciate a Republican no matter how moderate they are. I feel so socially isolated. All of my friends in the GOP bullied me for being a RINO, while all of the dems bullied me for being a conservative.

In addition, my wife left me and now without her income or my congressional salary, I can no longer pay for my mortgage. Hope you guys are super happy that you got one extra Democrap in Congress who will be a globalist open borders Pelosi drone... you filhos da puta idiotas ruined my life.

lmao

[Pericles]

It'll probably be double digits this time lol.

[Pericles]

I feel Ortiz Jones' loss was a disappointing performance even if the polls were bad as the seat was very close in 2016 and Clinton won it, it should have absolutely flipped in 2018.

[Pericles]

Full article: Vulnerable Republicans move to the middle in 2019

Good to see them responding to electoral incentives, but unfortunately they'll probably go back to being 100% party-line hacks if the GOP is in the majority and their vote is actually needed.

[Pericles]

Dems won the tipping-point seat in 2018 by 4.26% (MN-07), so Dems needed a popular vote win of just over 4 points to get the majority in 2018. Given that in swing seats Democrats will now have the incumbency advantage instead of running against strong Republican incumbents, they likely won't need to win by as much as 4 points. Given the gerrymandered maps I think a popular vote of 2 or 3 points will be necessary. However, 2008 is an interesting example as in 2006 Democrats needed a popular vote win of 3% to flip the House, then in 2008 they actually had an advantage and could lose the popular vote and still win the majority (though this is based on a uniform swing from them winning a big landslide).

[Pericles]

Full RRH Elections rating changes:

Toward the GOP:
IA-01: Lean D -> Tossup Accurate
MN-07: Lean D -> Tossup No, Lean or Likely R, Peterson will do worse in a presidential electorate
NV-03: Likely D - > Lean D In a neutral national environment this is accurate, in a pro-Democratic national environment it would be Likely D
NJ-02: Likely D -> Lean D Reasonable
NY-11: Lean D -> Tossup Trump did win this so this is reasonable, but Rose does seem strong and this district seems weird so hard to tell
OH-12: Lean R -> Likely R Accurate
OR-04: Safe D -> Likely D Reasonable
PA-01: Tossup -> Lean R Wrong, tossup is a better rating, Clinton won this district and Wallace was a bad candidate
TX-10: Lean R -> Likely R Likely R is a bit extreme imo
TX-31: Lean R -> Likely R Lean R seems better
VA-10: Safe D -> Likely D Lmao no, this is Safe D

Toward the Democrats:
CA-25: Lean D -> Likely D This district is highly unlikely to flip back, should probably be Safe D, but Lean D was lol-tier while Likely D isn't as bad
IN-05: Likely R -> Lean R Seems reasonable
MI-03: Likely R -> Three-way Tossup I doubt Amash does well enough to be competitive, this race is unpredictable though, maybe Lean R would be a better rating though
TX-23: Lean R -> Lean D Accurate
VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D Plausible, though this does seem pretty competitive
WI-08: Safe R -> Likely R Trump won by 17 points here, and it trended dramatically Republican, Safe R seems better

Some of these changes are okay, but there are some pretty questionable calls in here.

My thoughts on the ratings in bold.

[Pericles]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th? Even if they somehow win it in 2020 that means they have to play juggle incumbents around instead of just creating the neccesary 4th D sink in Houston.

Because half the party thinks Texas 2016 and 2018 was a two-time fluke whereas the saner half that is trying to sound the alarm on Texas is getting ignored completely.

Just like half the Democrats are still stuck in the past and desperately trying to salvage rural Minnesota districts that are "Democratic at heart" while writing off TX because it voted very Republican in 2004.

Not sure about half for the Dems, reality-denying as on most issues exists on both sides but is more prevalent with the Republicans.

[Pericles]

Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Van Drew did underperform (by a good amount) in 2018. He could definitely be saved by very weak opposition but I think considering this and NJ-3 as tossups is reasonable

How much was he supposed to win by? He won by 8 points in a district that voted for Trump by 5 points, so the margin over-performance was double digits.