2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

Change Research has botched every race they’ve ever polled, so I would ignore their online-only junk.

To be fair, they were the only ones who had Gillum winning the FL primary IIRC.

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

While I want to believe this and have Smucker on the more competitive end of Likely R, Suquehanna (IIRC) got caught outright making up numbers and trying to pass it off as an actual poll.  I don't think we should read too much into anything they put out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Utah pollster Dan Jones has passed away.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900040085/utah-leaders-former-students-mourn-passing-of-political-icon-dan-jones.html

RIP

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1085934956289945600?s=21

Looks like Gallego has the establishment’s backing. Probably cakewalk primary if he declares.

Good to hear, hes the best candidate we have for that seat.

But Atlas told me Gallego was too left-wing for Arizona and that ex-Republican and abuse mocker Grant Woods was the only candidate who could possibly even stand a chance against unbeatable titan Martha McSally!!!

Pretty sure no one said Grant Woods was anything other than the worst candidate we could run, but thanks for playing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1085934956289945600?s=21

Looks like Gallego has the establishment’s backing. Probably cakewalk primary if he declares.

Good to hear, hes the best candidate we have for that seat.

But Atlas told me Gallego was too left-wing for Arizona and that ex-Republican and abuse mocker Grant Woods was the only candidate who could possibly even stand a chance against unbeatable titan Martha McSally!!!

Pretty sure no one said Grant Woods was anything other than the worst candidate we could run, but thanks for playing.

Are you kidding me right now

Who on Atlas said Woods wouldn't be an absolutely awful candidate?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1085934956289945600?s=21

Looks like Gallego has the establishment’s backing. Probably cakewalk primary if he declares.

Good to hear, hes the best candidate we have for that seat.

But Atlas told me Gallego was too left-wing for Arizona and that ex-Republican and abuse mocker Grant Woods was the only candidate who could possibly even stand a chance against unbeatable titan Martha McSally!!!

Pretty sure no one said Grant Woods was anything other than the worst candidate we could run, but thanks for playing.

Are you kidding me right now

Who on Atlas said Woods wouldn't be an absolutely awful candidate?

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

Somebody akin to what you call a "garbage moderate" just won us the other AZ Sen seat, so Grant Woods would prob be a safe bet if he won the Dem primary.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

Somebody akin to what you call a "garbage moderate" just won us the other AZ Sen seat, so Grant Woods would prob be a safe bet if he won the Dem primary.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

Don't tell ON Progressive or Zaybay this lol.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Theres more

Wow...umm...okay, I you’re right.  I still can’t believe anyone ever supported Woods because he was always so clearly awful   Anyway, since Stanton seems to be out, Gallego is our next most best candidate by a country mile.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Marie Newman has filed for a rematch with Lipiniski-

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1089345569271803904

Go Newman!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

Nah, Rose ran a great campaign in 2018.  This will be close, but it definitely starts off Tilt D.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Scott Taylor is hellbent on destroying his political career altogether.

Glorious news!  I was worried he might run for VA-2 again.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1110668016524627968?s=19

DePasquale considering against Perry, would probably be the Dems' best possible choice.

He messed up not running last year after being heavily recruited. He almost certainly would've won.

Yeah, but he'd probably still win in 2020.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

How come?

Cause Staten Island hates his guts

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

Against John James?  Even in a neutral year, this would be Likely D.  It’d take a much stronger opponent to have a real shot against Peters given that the latter is already taking the race seriously. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rep. Lucy McBath (GA-06) turned down a $2k contribution from Rep. Ilhan Omar:

Up in D.C., the conservative Free Beacon has pointed to a $2,000 campaign contribution that U.S. Rep. Illhan Omar, D-Minn., reported making to fellow freshman Democrat Lucy McBath of Marietta.The website noted that McBath did not report the contribution – which is true. The McBath campaign told us this morning that the contribution was not accepted.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-peachtree-city-ordinance-would-permit-libel-suits-against-critics/K4Xt15TUWCG9MaUAr5FmCN/

Probably a smart move.  The district has a substantial Jewish population.

Glorious news!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/republicans-identify-vulnerable-members-for-2020

NRCC patriot program. Weirdly enough Kenny Marchant isn't on here.

This either signals to me that Tom Emmer is extremely stupid or Marchant is retiring.

Or both

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1120327456634728449

Lol

Likely Safe D————->Tilt Likely D

Our recruitment is much better this cycle, but it’s coming from the wrong places

FTFY

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IL-03: Marie Newman (D) has fallen victim to the DCCC's incumbent-protecting vendor policy

This sort of whining really isn’t a good look.  It makes Newman sound entitled and generally naive about how politics works and I say that as someone who hopes Newman beats Lipinski this time.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The main reason why Tenney lost is because she's a woman. A man that abrasive would just come of as Trump to the GOP base.

No, it's because she is a horrible candidate who ran a piss-poor campaign against an A-list Democrat who fits the district like a glove.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The main reason why Tenney lost is because she's a woman. A man that abrasive would just come of as Trump to the GOP base.

No, it's because she is a horrible candidate who ran a piss-poor campaign against an A-list Democrat who fits the district like a glove.

Mike Bost won and he's crazy.

Exactly. Mike Bost said a lot of crazy sh**t but that makes him populist . Claudia Tenney said a lot of crazy sh**t more than the avg GOP congressperson but its not that out of line. She would have won if she was a man.

Mike Bost was basically a generic Republican, Tenney is not.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

David Young might try again

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1125566091491725312

tilt R

Lean D, Young ran an awful campaign, is a lazy campaigner, and won't have incumbency advantages anymore.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Former CIA Officer and notorious anti-semite Valerie Plame running for NM-03:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1126496160456134656?s=20

How is she an anti-semite? Regardless, it's a Safe D seat.

She tweeted an article on Rosh Hashanah called "Jews are Driving America's Wars."  The article literally called for labeling Jews whenever we appear on TV the same way as a bottle of rat poison.  Plame initially doubled-down on her agreement with the article (which came from a website featuring such thoughtful critiques of Israeli policy as "It's Time for America to Rethink David Duke") and claimed she was a victim of the Jewish Neocon smear machine or some such nonsense.  She's also falsely claimed that Israelis were dancing in the streets on 9/11.  Plame is pretty clearly a hardline anti-Semite, but fortunately, she should get steamrolled in the primary. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1126804503557230593

Oh f#ck, hopefully he runs for MI 11 so we get to at least save Peters, but I think he is gonna go for senate.

He’ll lose either way.