2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hmm, closer than I would have expected, I get that it's an internal, but even a Walden win by low tweens to teens is really underwhelming.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1055926665522696195

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Older poll, but idk if it has been posted here, Colin slightly up.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ECUTX3218m1-100118.pdf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

UT-04

https://kutv.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-4th-congressional-district-race-between-love-mcadams-widens-by-6-points

McAdams (D): 49.51%
Love (R): 43.05%

Not only decimals, but 2 decimal places!

Wowzers, this one will be close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

Maybe a negligible one, but I would think that it is a pretty agreed upon almost fact at this point that dems are winning the national house vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

I'm sorry my fellow Democrats can't realize what is actually happening, the Democrats are going to massively underperform the polls like 2016. We'll be lucky if we pick up anymore than 10 seats, I tbqh won't be surprised to see us lose seats.

Yep, it must be pretty awful from your side's perspective. I recommend investing in cake and wine or whatever to prepare for November 6

Aren't cake and wine usually celebratory foods?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

@Bagel: yeah but it's also nice to consume when you make yourself wanna feel better after an unexpected loss

I also recommend french fries (consider adding cheese and bacon), donuts, fried chicken, barbecue, pizza, etc

Thanks, even if it is a traditionally "good night" for dems by winning the house, not getting completely bludgeoned in the senate, and picking up some critical governor seats, etc. I would indeed consider acquiring some of those items for Manchin's loss.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

@Bagel: yeah but it's also nice to consume when you make yourself wanna feel better after an unexpected loss

I also recommend french fries (consider adding cheese and bacon), donuts, fried chicken, barbecue, pizza, etc

Thanks, even if it is a traditionally "good night" for dems by winning the house, not getting completely bludgeoned in the senate, and picking up some critical governor seats, etc. I would indeed consider acquiring some of those items for Manchin's loss.

When Manchin, Nelson, Donnelly, Heitkamp and McCaskill lose, we can all grieve together right?

For the record, I have always had Nelson winning and I still think he pulls through, but if that occurs, then yes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

Donnelly aint exciting to the college kids in Indiana 9th, so the dem base won't be fired up as much there, kinda like Manchin in Monongalia, maybe a little better though. Oh, he's definitely leading in Indiana 2nd CD, it's his home turf.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

This post is peak Atlas. Just having a good interview that the vast majority of the district won't even see doesn't mean you'll break 40%.

Well he also has some great ads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tv9YTydHBeo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVIWD-D2yog

AND democrats with testimonials voting for him

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FcCh05aAic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5JJOu9gRv8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vxr6gWj_bVk

My favorite:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3t1CEyQ9pm0

And you never know, he might win one of these days

https://www.civilbeat.org/2018/10/why-gop-congressional-candidate-cam-cavasso-wont-quit-running/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Morrisey and Miller primed for the win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

Folks, I can't even begin to say how stupid this is:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/10/17/virginia-10th-race-comstock-wexton-dean-ebof-dnt-vpx.cnn

If anyone of you are Comstock fans and expect her to win, prepare to be disappointed barring a major development of catastrophic proportions for Wexton.

LOL Comstock is so behind, even the cautious Bagel believes she will lose.

Yeah, this race is Safe D.

snip

Yeah, we are about to witness Comstock entering near inevitable forced retirement.

54-44 loss would be my guess, and that's still being generous.

Oh and did I forget to mention that I will be watching and enjoying every second of her political demise in 18 days

Hopefully with a big tub of popcorn in the movie room too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anybody but Schultz, go Kaufman or Canova, or whoever besides her.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

Wow was I wrong, Cam Cavasso did not even win a single neighborhood, and did significantly worse than the opponents of Ige and Hanabusa. Got beaten by over 50 points, and barely above 20% of the vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Heck, Cavasso even did much worse than that Ron Curtis guy facing Hirono.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Karen Handel announced on Twitter this morning that she is seeking a rematch against Lucy McBath in GA-06.

Lol she is a dumb@$$, State Senator Brandon Beach will rightfully beat her in the primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's go DePasquale!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LOL http://www.wbap.com/2019/03/27/a-richardson-woman-is-vy/

Congressman Allred is in really good shape unless he gets drawn out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I hope they keep my neighborhood in a blue cd.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LOL http://www.wbap.com/2019/03/27/a-richardson-woman-is-vy/

Congressman Allred is in really good shape unless he gets drawn out.

Worth remembering that dozens of people like this woman got elected to Congress in 2010

Irrelevant, 2010 will be nothing like 2020.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LOL http://www.wbap.com/2019/03/27/a-richardson-woman-is-vy/

Congressman Allred is in really good shape unless he gets drawn out.

Worth remembering that dozens of people like this woman got elected to Congress in 2010

Irrelevant, 2010 will be nothing like 2020.

Did I say it would be?

No, but that makes your previous comment unneeded and irrelevant. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LOL http://www.wbap.com/2019/03/27/a-richardson-woman-is-vy/

Congressman Allred is in really good shape unless he gets drawn out.

Worth remembering that dozens of people like this woman got elected to Congress in 2010

Irrelevant, 2010 will be nothing like 2020.

Did I say it would be?

No, but that makes your previous comment unneeded and irrelevant. 

interesting choice of words, given that you have made over eight thousand unneeded and irrelevant posts during your time here

Fair point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://abc13.com/politics/combat-veteran-to-challenge-fletcher-for-congressional-seat/5229241/


Fletcher has republican african american challenger

John James 2.0.

Barf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/WinterForMT/status/1113089463415136257