2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Bidenworth2020]

Heck, Cavasso even did much worse than that Ron Curtis guy facing Hirono.

you said he would get 40.

[Bidenworth2020]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

[Bidenworth2020]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

Nah, Rose ran a great campaign in 2018.  This will be close, but it definitely starts off Tilt D.

He didn't really outrun Cuomo or even Letitia James by a lot, but Donovan was pretty popular TBF. I think dem should put in serious effort to get Grimm through the primary.

[Bidenworth2020]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

yeah this is an amazing recruit. Great for the GOP image too. She's a star, and I expect Elise Stefanik's new PAC to absolutely DUMP money into supporting her.

Now watch your star recruit losing the primary to Grimm.

I mean, I wouldnt be so sure hell win considering he lost the primary 64-36

[Bidenworth2020]

NY-14: #WalkAway founder Brandon Straka to consider a challenge to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D). Straka voted for Hillary in 2016, but has since moved hard-right. He’ll run as a Republican most likely.

He reminds me of Peggy Hubbard (who's considering a run against Sen. Durbin in 2020) in many ways.

https://twitter.com/usminority/status/1093171522422886402

wouldn't he want to run somewhere he wouldn't get embarrassed?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

[Bidenworth2020]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

the recent nyc qpac poll had him at -5 in Staten, and every dem won it in 2018. Seems to be swinging back.

[Bidenworth2020]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

How come?

Cause Staten Island hates his guts

Hey, the feeling is mutual lol

[Bidenworth2020]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.

To be fair, I can fairly easily envision this type of voter with a local entity like Kean. I still think ing Malinowski wins, though.

[Bidenworth2020]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

umm... Heitkamp and Landrieu were not running in tough, R trending terrain. While Horn's seat is tough, she won an upset victory for a reason. OK-05 will probably be within single digits on the pres level in 2020, and I think she loses 52-48.

[Bidenworth2020]

Gotta agree with YC on this one, I dont think using Rauner in a district he won in 2018 will be an effective way for Casten to defeat Sanguinetti. Perhaps Healthcare or just plain old Trump will be more effective.

Edit: Wrong name, whoops

Yes, clearly JB Pritzker is pretty much a generic D without any real scandals or anything that might have hurt him among these types of voters 🙄

This is not the strongest argument against this point though. He basically matched Clinton statewide and yet underperformed her by 13 in IL-06. At the federal level though, this seat is safe d.

[Bidenworth2020]

These people are so disconnected from the average voter. The average Republican voter is economically moderate to center-right, mostly socially conservative, and very nationalistic. They are not supportive of abortion or concerned about climate change or concerned about being inclusive. lol, the party will just keep electing Trumps in any primaries where they show up if these people keep insisting on changing the party in their way.

A decent amount of republicans are pro-choice in some way

And a decent amount of dems are pro-life

There are no pro choice republicans in the house.