2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf

MT-AL Gravis: Williams (D-inc) 48, Gianforte (R-inc) 48

Tester+3 in that poll, and Trump with 58/39 approval, so this looks pretty plausible.

> GRAVIS

[Oryxslayer]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6eb82edf-81cd-4528-ae67-3d8371e94eaf

CA-50 SUSA: Hunter (R-inc) 48, Campa-Najjar (R) 45

Campa-Najier changing parties really shook up this race

[Oryxslayer]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe it just wishful thinking, but this election feels like a larger scale of what happened here in VA last November.

tbf, if that is the case, this result would be unthinkable. Virginia 2017's results basically amounted to a cleansing of Republicans in Clinton districts only, with one or two marginal Trump seat wins.

The better interpretation is that Dems targeted only w handful of Clinton seats, but then a wave came along and pushed them all the way to the gates of the likely R catergory. National Dems certainly haven't been targeting as narrowly as the VA Dems did, it's why the Pubs are having to play defense in all these likely R seats against the mountain of Dem cash.

[Oryxslayer]

Somethings in the water in PA, I wonder what it might be...

[Oryxslayer]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

Am I missing something? Nate has it at 8.1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

5.7 required to flip, 8.1 is the current gap.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NOgnanovich/status/1110218083409580032

The guys 75 so I guess it makes sense. This is one of, if not the Bluest House district in the country.

Edit: The guy says he has parkinsons so it makes even more sense.

[Oryxslayer]

GOP are supposedly trying to get Ngyuen for CA48. I see no reason why her fate won't be similar that of Kim - and I actually like her. There are a few differences about the races and the districts, but the prevailing trends will still be the same.

[Oryxslayer]

GOP are supposedly trying to get Ngyuen for CA48. I see no reason why her fate won't be similar that of Kim - and I actually like her. There are a few differences about the races and the districts, but the prevailing trends will still be the same.

Nguyen has represented more of the district before, hasn't she? And doesn't Nguyen have a reputation as a moderate already built up? And 2020 will almost certainly be a less democratic year than 2018. Those are some of the differences, I think.

Heres the link to Nguyen's talks: https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/677650?unlock=NK8CFN4LUUI5U52T

But on the topic of Young Kim, the comparison naturally happens since they are both former state legislators for OC. And like I said, I like the women - shes a conservative but with some moderate streaks, and I really liked her 2017 speech. However, the list of pro and cons is not exactly stacked to her advantage.

Pros: Women vs Man, Formerly Rep'ed the Region, Potential surge for the republicans from the Vietnamese community here (like in 39), a more Conservative seat than CA-39.   

Cons: Rouda is an incumbent and better than Cisneros, there are less Asians here than in 39, Rouda didn't didn't do that well with the Vietnamese in the first place (compared to other dems) so he isn't losing much, Minority turnout is going to by up from 2018 benefiting dems - on top of Rouda doing well with whites last election, he won every meaningful town in the district except the Republican stronghold of Newport.

In my eyes the pro and cons when we compare the two races mostly cancel out. This leaves us with Ronda probably winning by 3-4. I personally think OC is going to change dramatically in redistricting, so she would better wait for 2022 to run. CA-47's arm getting added to a OC seat would dramatically alter the regional math for instance.

[Oryxslayer]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/437425-trump-loyalist-gaetz-eyes-senate-bid-in-alabama

Crazist thing I have read in a while, Gaetz wants to carpetbag across the border and run against Jones. I guess thats what losing the levers of power in the house for the first time does to you, you start considering outlandish options.

[Oryxslayer]

Wendy Davis thinking on jumping in against Roy:
https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/05/wendy-davis-senate-congress/

Pls no.

[Oryxslayer]

Lets also remember that the courts threw out basically all of Michigans districts not bordering Lake Michigan, so there is an outside chance everyone gets reshuffled. James might end going for a new MI-08 Republican north suburb seat, while Slotkin hops over to what wuld come to occupy Lansing and Stevens gets a much friendlier MI-11. But it is an outside chance.

[Oryxslayer]

Would Cocaine Mitch retire if the GOP loses the Senate in 2020?

Well, the thing is he would likely not know. He is up for reelection in 2020, and I kinda doubt he just suddenly retires and creates a special election.

Sorry, I should have added that would he resign in 2021, rather than be forced back into the minority.

I think it depends, like everything. If the political environment for the republicans becomes like 2008 and it becomes clear you don't want to be an elected Republican in Washington, Mitch probably stays on - there was nothing he could do to preserve the majority in this situation. If the dems somehow flip the senate in in a political environment roughly analogous to today then Mitch will have to bear some of the blame and that could prompt a leadership transfer. but who knows what will happen.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Forrest4Trees/status/1136794746993561600

No idea if this is someones hope or a leak.

[Oryxslayer]

Finally the GOP is getting serious, instead of piddle paddling around in places like CA 25 and MN 2

https://twitter.com/KyleTrygstad/status/1139132345959759872

Safe D —-> Safe D

Yep. Bartletta lost the district to Casey, and Cartwright, who’s a very strong incumbent, will certainly hammer him for carpetbagging.

Hazleton is partially in the district though right?

Yep, but not much else from his former district is in the new PA-08. District-based goodwill is a very common thing, one of the most obvious recent examples is  SD CA01, where two former incumbents won their ditricts and not much else against each other. District boosts helped Bartletta in 2018 carry the region by more then he should have with the percentage he got. With only a minimal part of his former seat in the region, the boost may not be all that beneficial.

[Oryxslayer]

Former Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is possibly considering a run in CA-50 if Hunter (R) resigns or decides not to seek reelection:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/449625-issa-eyes-return-to-congress

This was rumored as well in 2018 and in 2017 when he was looking at retirement, I think its obvious he will throw his hat into the ring. The rumors are being kept alive precisely because he wants to clear the field, with perhaps only one other significant republican on the blanket primary ticket with him.

[Oryxslayer]

Allen West decides that he wants to run to chair the Texas Republicans. This is only notable because he passed on a what would have been a weird TX-32 run.

[Oryxslayer]

wtf https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1146559881190596608

So he couldn't run in 2018 because the district was 'designed to draw him out ' (his words), and left a token republican to commit seppuku and make the seat Safe D. But he can run in 2020 when the D at the top of the ticket will make the seat worse for him. Okay.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1148916419343638531?s=19

I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

[Oryxslayer]

CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html

Doubt

Actually makes sense. 2018 showed that Hispanics, which are about 80% of this districts democratic voters, activate in the last 6 weeks of the campaign. So among everyone else...of course Valadao leads. I do think the dems need a better guy here than Cox, but the prominent state legislators arn't throwing their hat into the ring so I guess Cox is staying on for team Blue.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150803737327407105

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150808024300306437

Five potential thoughts on this one since it is such out of left field. DePasquale is one of the best dem house recruits this cycle, and just ignoring fundraising is not a good thing to do as an incumbent. :

1) It could be because Perry is only now taking the steps for fundraising and ignored it the first quarter
2) It could be that Perry wants to retire. He fits the profile of the type of guy who doesn't like being in the minority.
3) It could be that Perry is bad at this sort of thing, only ever repping a safe seat as a freedom caucus member until the redistricting.
4) It could be that Perry just lacks the grassroots that normally candidates have in their district. A good chunk of Republican votes in PA10 come from Amish who won't be sending in cash online.
5) Perry assumes that the loose redistricting 2020 deal that is in the works is permanent.  This is a rumor I have heard from PA insiders, but because PA is virtually guaranteed to have divided govt, the Republicans wish to avoid the state supreme court one again and cut a deal with the dems. One part of this rough plan is that PA10 is the axed seat. So Perry has no incentive to campaign as hard as one would. The problem is, Democrats are understood to have the upper hand in these negotiations and if DePasquale wins then dems are going to demand a different seat gets cut, likely PA09. Plus the shear number of competitive seats congressionally means that anything agreed to now is just a rough plan, this can and no doubt will change.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150826343963213830

[Oryxslayer]

Numbers coming in hot and fast now:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1150844245953171456

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150843808197693440

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150837622056468480

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150957105777532928?s=19

Low numbers, but Phillips is one of those self-funders with insane ability to dump personal wealth into the seat. So I guess he is kinda ignoring this side of the battle for now.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150956050058629121

Being banished from your parties committees and outcast from their donor networks isn't the best place to be. I have long suspected King is going to lose at the convention when nobody gets over 35% and Iowa's weird rules around clown car tickets come into play.