2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

[wbrocks67]

VA-07 Wason Center

Spanberger (D) 46%
Brat (R) 45%

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct-29-CD7-Report-Final.pdf

[wbrocks67]

TBH, I don't really foresee younger voters voting early. It would seem more likely, to me, that they'll come out on Election Day. That's why I think some of these "young people aren't coming out to vote at all because they're not voting early" takes are very off.

[wbrocks67]

Well, the slew of new polls that I predicted for today hasn't really materialized so far. Maybe they're waiting for tomorrow so it could count as a final week poll?

If you take out NYT/Siena, this cycle has been rough as hell for polls, especially senate ones. We're a week before the election and we got only like a handful today. Insane.

[wbrocks67]

PA-10: Perry (R) +3

Perry 49
Scott 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-perry-in-close-contest-with-democrat-scott/1560816650

Pretty good poll for Dems.

Also, people want a check on Trump (52%) rather than someone blindly following him (45%), which means Scott has some upside here. All of the polls have had Perry only up 2 or 3, so hopefully Scott can get dragged over the finish line.

[wbrocks67]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

Donnelly aint exciting to the college kids in Indiana 9th, so the dem base won't be fired up as much there, kinda like Manchin in Monongalia, maybe a little better though. Oh, he's definitely leading in Indiana 2nd CD, it's his home turf.

College kids don't vote in midterms. Even in TX where there is Betomania, they are not voting all that much.

This isn't a normal midterm year. And I think any rational person wouldn't base young turnout solely on EV so far, considering I'd think young people are more likely to vote on ED than EV.

[wbrocks67]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

[wbrocks67]

Hmm, well the PA-11 poll only has a sample size of 311.

That is super-small and VERY noisy. So it is most likely a substantial outlier.

*Bubble bopping*

Not really. PA-11 is a pretty small district.

Not to mention when Monmouth does their LV models, it's usually like 350-400-ish

[wbrocks67]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.

However, this poll wrapped more than one week ago (Oct. 21-22), so it was unaffected by the shooting.

It doesn't help that we haven't gotten a poll in PA for over a month.

Yeah, getting annoyed that neither Muhelenberg/Morning Call or F&M haven't put out anything.

[wbrocks67]

Somethings in the water in PA, I wonder what it might be...

As a PA-er, I'm trying not to get too excited here. But I'm very interested to see the margins. Wagner/Barletta have truly been a disaster for the GOP here.

[wbrocks67]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

[wbrocks67]

PA GCB: D+15 (53-38)

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

If we were able to take PA-10 and PA-16, I think I would cry. Now if PA-11 was included too...

[wbrocks67]

NPR/Marist, Oct. 28-29, 822 RV including 509 LV (1-week change)

RV: D 50 (nc), R 44 (+4)

LV (no priors): D 52, R 43

This also has Ds only up 6 with 18-29 year olds so...

[wbrocks67]

Trende is a total GOP hack. He tried playing the "both sides" card but his whole "I'm confused" act is ridiculous. He was trying to act is if Trump's approval is substantially better than W's 37%. Trump's is at about 40-42% right now. Statistically, not that much better. And Obama lost 63 seats when his approval was even higher than Trumps. He was basically looking for ways to somehow make this rosier for the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

Thus is such a good article on why polling and models could be completely wrong this election year:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Great article, thanks for posting.

I honestly forgot about VA 2017 and the polling error. And the kicker is, that the Reps still had great turnout that year. But the Dems had ROBUST turnout. Northam's 6 pt polling error was bigger than I remembered.

[wbrocks67]

* Tosses a crumb to Antonio *

HarrisX, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, 5000 RV including 3167 LV

RV: D 44, R 37

LV: D 50, R 42 (last week: 49/42)

God, not ANOTHER Harris poll.

It should be noted that HarrisX and Harris Interactive are not the same firm, although they do share some common ownership.

Can we just be done with all Rasmussens and all Harris's because it's becoming very confusing

[wbrocks67]

The ABC/Wapo poll has Men only +1 for GOP. If that's truly happening, Dems will win by more than 7.

The NBC/WSJ has Dems winning Seniors by +14. If that's truly happening, Dems will win be more than 7.

Meanwhile, the NBC/WSJ has a joke of an Indies sample.

Not to mention, the punditry is all "Dems in disarray! GOP surge" despite the fact that the GOP can barely crack 43-44% in poll after poll. That is 7% undecided in both. Undecideds, like in 2016, usually break for the party out of power.

[wbrocks67]

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

[wbrocks67]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.

Iowa shouldn't be surprising to me because it's so swingy, but I definitely didn't expect at D+6.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

Yeah, this is not good at all. I had hoped (not expected) that Dems maintain the higher leads they had previously been getting in the quality polls.

Dems are still favorites to take the House, but the chances are notably lower than they were a few days ago. The only argument that all is well is "maybe the undecideds will break Dem," "maybe the district polls will be more accurate," or "hopefully this is just the quality pollsters herding towards the cheap pollsters" etc. Indeed, maybe so. But also maybe not. This is not very persuasive or confidence inspiring.

I'm feeling significantly more like 2016 than I was yesterday, where Dems seem to have a lead and be likely to win, but where it is too close for comfort. That doesn't mean the outcome will be like 2016, but it also doesn't mean that it won't be like 2016.

In sum, not good. Not good at all.

ABC and NBC have it at 7-8. The 538 average has been about 8 for literally *months* now. I'm failing to see how this is a big deal.

Also, it's not cheap to say that undecideds will break Dem. It's just factually plausible based on every other midterm (and most presidential years).

The point, again, that somehow everyone is missing, is that the GOP has barely cracked 43-44%. I'm not sure how the spin is becoming "Dems in Disarray!" versus "The GOP hasn't cracked 44% all cycle long"

[wbrocks67]

Also, I'm not gonna even get into the "CW" or Punditry this weekend or tomorrow about Dems being in Disarray because we all remember what happened in 2017. Most pundits were saying Northam was screwing up, that Gillepsie was "closing in" (the infamous Morning Joe clip), and then we saw what happened. Not saying that will happen again here, but we've seen all cycle that with this president, the people left over / the "enthusiasm" gap favors the Dems. Which makes total sense because they are out of power and Trump has a 42% approval rating.

[wbrocks67]

ABC and NBC have it at 7-8. The 538 average has been about 8 for literally *months* now. I'm failing to see how this is a big deal.

Previously, Dems had been doing better. The overall polling average was generally a compromise between junky polls that often had Dem leads at 7-8 or a bit lower and better quality polls, many of which (often but not always) had low-double digit leads for Dems.

It is true, there is not a huge basis for saying that Dems are now doing worse in live phone polls than before, but that is because we have so damned few recent live phone polls (and so many internet/robopolls). The way I look at the GCB, the vast majority of polls in it are methodologically questionable junky polls. So to me, the handful of higher quality live phone polls that we do have are relatively more important. And they are certainly more meaningful than the next Harris/Rassmusen/whatever GCB poll.

Also, I'm not gonna even get into the "CW" or Punditry this weekend or tomorrow about Dems being in Disarray because we all remember what happened in 2017. Most pundits were saying Northam was screwing up, that Gillepsie was "closing in" (the infamous Morning Joe clip), and then we saw what happened. Not saying that will happen again here, but we've seen all cycle that with this president, the people left over / the "enthusiasm" gap favors the Dems. Which makes total sense because they are out of power and Trump has a 42% approval rating.

Sure. It may (or may not) be like VA Gov 2017.

And we've gotten only 3 over the past week, and they are 7, 8, and 9, which pretty much lines up with what we've been seeing all cycle.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure how WaPo ends up with +7/8 nationally after getting D+4 in 70 battleground districts that Trump won by *15* on average.

[wbrocks67]

It seems like there has been a small but distinct move toward the Democrats in the last few days, especially in the most competitive districts.

Which doesn't seem surprising, as I would assume Indies/Undecideds break for Dems, as is tradition with the party out of power.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult joins Rasmussen in finding the generic to be D+3.  If they are correct the GOP RETAINS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.

I think they are a little low.  I believe it will be D+5 or 6.  That should put the Democrats in the range of 220 to 225. I do not think with that small a majority they will be able to do much damage. 

 I think that is best for Trump, too.  If the GOP were to keep the House, Trump would get the wrong message for 2020.

Morning Consult had D+8 last week. They continue to be junk.