2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[lfromnj]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

there's a good chance Kaine got 60% in VA-10, he got in the low to mid 60s in Fairfax, PW and Loudoun and I don't know if the shenandoah #s was enough to offset it.

Anyway I knew Comstock was toast but here I was thinking that the 5 million the CLF burnt would atleast bring her margin to maybe 10 points.

[lfromnj]

Rasmussen publishes a pathetic defense of their GCB results: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/november_2018/how_we_did_and_why_we_did_it.  Summary:

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why doesn't anyone critcize CNN here?
They had a +13 GCB and im expecting a higher GCB than polls due to unopposed districts so CNN had an unfair advantage IMO.

[lfromnj]

So much for the piping hot takes that Democrats needed to win the PV by double digits to take the House, lol.

God, the #analysis from the pundits is so terrible.

I honestly thought it would be pretty high solely due to the unopposed districts but if every district was contested by #bothsides it would be around 6 points.

[lfromnj]

The national PV margin has reached 8.6. One more point and it will be on par with 538's GCB tracker.

I'm actually surprised, given that there is a history of the out-party underperforming GCB polls in wave years.

In the RCP average, Democrats underperformed their average in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. So yeah, this is the first midterm in close to 20 years where Democrats didn't underperform.

they did though IMO because the GCB doesn't take into account of uncontested districts.
Not that it really matters.

[lfromnj]

You're damn right we already have 2020 recruiting news.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1075893126026403841

Unless the environment turns to absolute sh**t or jones is a pedo bustos is garbage if she triaged jones.

[lfromnj]

If that challenger has a decent amount of Charisma she could have a good showing

Female D veterans didn't do bad in 2018 and IMO most of em overperformed except Mcgrath.

[lfromnj]

isnt olson a carpetbagger?

[lfromnj]

LOL http://www.wbap.com/2019/03/27/a-richardson-woman-is-vy/

Congressman Allred is in really good shape unless he gets drawn out.

The Texas GOP would have to be extremely stupid to not make a 3rd D sink district in Texas. You don't fool around and try to crack areas which have moved almost 30 points left in 6 years.

[lfromnj]

I think I read that he also won PA 10th in 2016 somewhere on twitter.

[lfromnj]

He should’ve ran in 2018.

I mean I dont get why he didn't take a run. Even if he lost he still holds his auditor seat.

[lfromnj]

https://abc13.com/politics/combat-veteran-to-challenge-fletcher-for-congressional-seat/5229241/


Fletcher has republican african american challenger

John James 2.0.

[lfromnj]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.

I'm glad you realize that a Romney-Clinton district with an excellent GOP candidate that Guadagno and Hugin carried isn't Safe D.

GUADAGNO carried that district? Yeah, I think that makes NJ-7 a tossup.

Yeah, and by nearly 7 points.

Implying the D federal floor is anything but Menendez's numbers of +5 Hugin,

[lfromnj]

https://www.star-telegram.com/latest-news/article229013409.html

DCCC Texas polls on Marchant,Chip Roy, and Mccaul's district.
No actual polling on head to head vs generic D  which is good 2 years ahead.

Looks like Bustos is smartly making the idea of targetting Texas. Texas 23rd shouldn't be triaged unless it looks like the D's are already losing the house.

[lfromnj]

https://www.mdjonline.com/neighbor_newspapers/extra/news/feenstra-announces-raising-k-in-first-quarter-running-against-steve/article_d29174e4-8366-5b9b-aa9c-50d687c37bb1.html

Steve KKKings primary opponent raised 260k.

[lfromnj]

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/16/pierce-bush-grandson-george-hw-bush-may-run-congress-houston/amp/


Can the Bushes win back a district that just swung like 25 points left in 6 years?

I think the answer is no

Funfact in 1976/1980 this district had the most republican PVI in the nation.

[lfromnj]

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/16/pierce-bush-grandson-george-hw-bush-may-run-congress-houston/amp/


Can the Bushes win back a district that just swung like 25 points left in 6 years?

I think the answer is no

Funfact in 1976/1980 this district had the most republican PVI in the nation.

Can you please provide a source here?

I 100% remember reading it on a twitter map of PVI of 1976 and 1980 but I looked through the people I remember and can't find it. It does make sense though as this was meant to be a R sink district.

[lfromnj]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/republicans-identify-vulnerable-members-for-2020

NRCC patriot program. Weirdly enough Kenny Marchant isn't on here.

This either signals to me that Tom Emmer is extremely stupid or Marchant is retiring.

[lfromnj]

Why are they wasting money on Herrera? This is bordering on Safe R, many of the counties in this district that Cantwell won in 2012(she won by a similar margin in 2018) voted for Hutchinson in a D+9 year despite dems tirelessly contesting it. It's GONE

well 2/3 of the population lives in Clark county which had no swing from 2012 to 2016 and is trending D. Anyway the real reason that they are making JBh in the patriot program is because they don't want the number of women they have to drop lower.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1120327456634728449

Lol

Likely D————->Tilt D

Our recruitment is much better this cycle, but it’s coming from the wrong places

I would wager it is lean D, Evelynn Sanlinguine does not even seem like that great of a candidate though.

Why not exactly? Rauner won this district.

Clearly Il 12th is a tossup.

[lfromnj]

FYI obama won IA 1st by the same amount as Trump won Ok 5th. Horn's odds aren't that good but she could easily be a Rod Blum.

[lfromnj]

Gotta agree with YC on this one, I dont think using Rauner in a district he won in 2018 will be an effective way for Casten to defeat Sanguinetti. Perhaps Healthcare or just plain old Trump will be more effective.

Edit: Wrong name, whoops

Yes, clearly JB Pritzker is pretty much a generic D without any real scandals or anything that might have hurt him among these types of voters 🙄

This is not the strongest argument against this point though. He basically matched Clinton statewide and yet underperformed her by 13 in IL-06. At the federal level though, this seat is safe d.

Clearly IL 12th is winnable coz #populist Pritzker won it.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1122833886797549568?s=21

<10% chance she wins the primary...

Who do you think, will run, this is a district where I think running a retread (Dave Brat or Eric Cantor), may be the best option

Haha what? Are you blind? Nick F$cking Freitas dude.

Do VA Reps really want to nominate the person who lost to Corey Stewart in a primary

Clearly Mike Castle would have been a garbage candidate.

[lfromnj]

The main reason why Tenney lost is because she's a woman. A man that abrasive would just come of as Trump to the GOP base.

[lfromnj]

The main reason why Tenney lost is because she's a woman. A man that abrasive would just come of as Trump to the GOP base.

No, it's because she is a horrible candidate who ran a piss-poor campaign against an A-list Democrat who fits the district like a glove.

Mike Bost won and he's crazy.

Exactly. Mike Bost said a lot of crazy sh**t but that makes him populist . Claudia Tenney said a lot of crazy sh**t more than the avg GOP congressperson but its not that out of line. She would have won if she was a man.

[lfromnj]

Btw did Beto win the Bexar portion of Texas 23rd? I vaguely remember that Hillary lost it by 2 while Hurd won it by like 15 points in 2016 but obviously did worse in the rurals because of Gallego.