2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Thatkat04]

The national PV margin has reached 8.6. One more point and it will be on par with 538's GCB tracker.

I'm actually surprised, given that there is a history of the out-party underperforming GCB polls in wave years.

In the RCP average, Democrats underperformed their average in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. So yeah, this is the first midterm in close to 20 years where Democrats didn't underperform.

[Thatkat04]

Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

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Wasn't the adjusted D lead something like D+7 only ?

There were a lot of races which had no Republicans running and therefore were uncontested.

Uncontested races shouldn't exist. They just distort the results.

Still, Rasmussen was the worst though.

It's a stupid metric. The Popular vote is the popular vote, regardless if Republicans didn't bother to field candidates.

[Thatkat04]

Also should be brought up, Florida had 4 congressional races where the incumbent democrats weren't even on the ballot. Thats hundreds of thousands of potential votes that democrats didn't get to add to their popular vote totals. I.E, I think Florida at least partially cancels out a good chunk of the races with no republican candidates.