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  2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 167974 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« on: April 25, 2019, 04:50:28 PM »
Obviously winning your home congressional district in a failed statewide run makes you a shoo-in to get elected to the House, just ask Congressman Paul Davis and Congressman Dino Rossi.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2019, 12:38:38 PM »
IL-03: Marie Newman (D) has fallen victim to the DCCC's incumbent-protecting vendor policy
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2019, 02:40:11 PM »
GA-07: State Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero (D) has filed to run.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2019, 09:57:52 AM »

I wouldn't be so sure. Tenney is an underperformer, but even she would benefit from what is likely to be a more favorable environment in this particular district in 2020. Her loss in 2018 wasn't even that bad, all things considered, especially since she ran against a popular state legislator who was considered a "good fit" for NY-22.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2019, 10:19:43 AM »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 10:22:59 AM by gracile »
Quote from: smoltchanov on April 30, 2019, 10:05:13 AM
Quote from: gracile on April 30, 2019, 09:57:52 AM

I wouldn't be so sure. Tenney is an underperformer, but even she would benefit from what is likely to be a more favorable environment in this particular district in 2020. Her loss in 2018 wasn't even that bad, all things considered, especially since she ran against a popular state legislator who was considered a "good fit" for NY-22.

I generally agree. But this "popular state legislator" is an incumbent Congressman now, and that's, most likely, a plus...

Maybe, but the fundamentals of this district are awful for Democrats. I think Brindisi would have a tough time in a neutral environment. Not only was NY-22 the most Republican district that Democrats flipped last fall in terms of Trump's margin of victory, but it was also the second most Republican-trending seat that flipped based on 2016 trendlines (only IA-01 trended more Republican). At least places like OK-05 and SC-01 have a democratic trend working in their incumbent's favor. The low-propensity voters in this seat who didn't show up for the midterm are likely conservatives who will show up with Trump on the ballot, which will be a detriment to Brindisi.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2019, 11:04:17 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2019, 11:12:52 AM by gracile »
IL-03: Newman (D) receives endorsements from key Democratic groups -



----

NY-11: Malliotakis (R) and Grimm (R) trade jabs ahead of possible primary -

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alexislevinson/trump-2020-congress-grimm-rose
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2019, 09:41:22 AM »
MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2019, 09:51:05 AM »
Quote from: #Kavanaugh For Prison on May 10, 2019, 09:48:02 AM
Quote from: gracile on May 10, 2019, 09:41:22 AM
MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -



If he ran for the House, which District would it be?

The consensus seems to be that he would run for MI-11.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2019, 12:26:34 PM »
IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)



Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2019, 06:29:38 PM »
Quote from: #Kavanaugh For Prison on May 13, 2019, 05:59:36 PM
Quote from: gracile on May 13, 2019, 12:26:34 PM
IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)



Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Looks like that 2018 Governor number is to the right of the District as a whole.

Hubbell won IA-01 by 1.3%.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2019, 09:20:26 AM »
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) officially in



She lost to Congressman Will Hurd (R) by 926 votes in 2018.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2019, 01:22:01 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2019, 03:28:52 PM by gracile »
Quote from: Yang2020 on May 14, 2019, 11:29:08 AM
Quote from: gracile on May 14, 2019, 09:20:26 AM
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) officially in



She lost to Congressman Will Hurd (R) by 926 votes in 2018.

Boy we're getting a lot of possible 2018 rematches here. Why though?

The ones who came pretty close in 2018 and will likely still have a favorable environment in 2020 (Ortiz Jones, Claudia Tenney, those second tier TX races that weren't given serious attention) I can understand. The ones who really underperformed expectations or will not face a favorable environment in 2020 (Young Kim, Nate McMurray, Perry Gershon, etc) are deluding themselves.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2019, 02:51:01 PM »
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2019, 09:07:36 AM »
Schwartz is better than Tarkanian at least.

That said, I think NV-03 will stay in Democrats' hands.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2019, 10:47:24 AM »


Not a good look for a congressman who only won by a few points in 2018 in a district that's zooming left.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2019, 09:41:31 AM »
SC-01:



-----

IA-02: Rita Hart (D) gets endorsements from a number of Democratic leaders



Seems like she's trying to clear the field.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2019, 10:14:42 AM »
Gianforte is likely in for MT-GOV:

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1133714977116872704

This means that MT-AL would be an open seat in 2020.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2019, 01:11:04 AM »
What does the GOP bench look like here? Not that they need an A-lister to take on Peterson, but given the district’s conservative lean you’d think the GOP could find someone better than the some guy Peterson faced in 2016 and 2018.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2019, 11:36:50 AM »

0% chance he'll make it through the primary or general election.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2019, 08:19:06 AM »



Full article: Vulnerable Republicans move to the middle in 2019
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2019, 09:22:33 PM »
Stefanik is probably angling to become a future party leader in the House, so some of her votes against the current GOP agenda are not surprising. She's young enough where controversial votes could come back to bite her later (especially if the GOP abandons some of its far-right positions in coming decades), so she has to proceed cautiously.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2019, 10:26:05 AM »
Lots of former Representatives are eyeing comeback bids:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2019, 11:01:22 AM »
Former Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is possibly considering a run in CA-50 if Hunter (R) resigns or decides not to seek reelection:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/449625-issa-eyes-return-to-congress
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2019, 02:45:08 PM »

They are way too bullish about Colorado.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2019, 01:46:26 PM »
Quote from: MarkD on June 29, 2019, 05:06:38 PM
For the recent posters who think that Colorado is being called wrongly, they are only saying that the race is a toss-up, which is the same rating given by Cook, Rothenberg, and Sabato (according to Wikipedia).

To be fair, I think even the pundits are underselling Gardner's vulnerability. He's certainly not Doug Jones-level gone, but I think it is fair to say that a Republican senator running for re-election in a D-trending Clinton state during a presidential year is the underdog. It's laughable that so many prognosticators seriously think Gardner is a force to be reckoned with because of his 2014 win when in reality it was a fluke. A poorly run Democratic campaign + heavily Republican year nationwide + low turnout together creates a narrow, perfect storm win. Two of those three elements are flat-out not going to happen in 2020 (heavy R year + low turnout), and it's debatable how much his opponent's strength (a very subjective quality) will matter when the fundamentals of the state are too difficult to overcome.

I say this race starts off as Lean D.
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