2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republicans haven’t gained a House seat in California since 1998. They are welcome to burn money trying to turn back time though

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

McCaul seems to be wiser than many people on Atlas in sensing that Dems could take his seat

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Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

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https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1153261184054956032?s=19

Big recruit but it's a tough district. Good would've had a tough challenge in her state house district which is more R than FL16, so it makes sense she's going for the higher office.

No her HD is more D friendly than this CD. Trump only won her HD by 4%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

If Dems control redistricting they probably will go for 4 NOVA seats(actually 5 is pretty possible if Dems are willing to get ugly and not be in Titanium D districts) but if they pass a commission Wexton could be in a Trump +2 or 4 seat. However Whitman would get a Clinton +9 or +11.(Fairfax +arlington+Alexandria is just a bit more than 2 districts. If the commision decides to not combine Loudon and PWC you get a Trump seat from one of these.

Wait, what do you mean? It's pretty easy to get four NOVA Dem seats that went for Clinton if you keep VA-10 as is (Frederick+Clarke+Winchester+Loudoun+Reston/heavily Dem western Fairfax will be roughly a Congressional seat based on population growth). Arlington+Alexandria+remainder of Fairfax is two seats. That leaves VA-01 to take all of PWC, Manassas, MPC all the way out to Fredericksburg. Both VA-10 and VA-01 would in that redraw would have easily voted for Clinton and have only gotten bluer since then.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

Loudon did grow but DRA virginia is 2016 Census estimates so 60% of the population trend has already been accounted for.  Actually just did some population calculations with 2019 data which is basically 2020 and you should get around a Trump +1.5 district by shedding around 80k people Trump +1 is probably what it should be. But You aren't getting 4 NOVA districts in a commission based map. Id say a commission as of now is 50/50. Again its not possible to have a 4th Safe D district in NOVA without cracking Fairfax.

A Trump+1 Loudoun based seat will almost definitely be voting against him in 2020, and probably won’t even be close, so while it probably wouldn’t be Safe D starting out after redistricting, it’d probably have a bluish his to it, and will get harder and harder for the GOP to win as the decade passes on.

But again, I reject the premise that a commission will draw the map. That is pretty unlikely to happen unless VA Dems want to shoot themseves in the foot

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It is pretty impressive how well Democratic House recruiting is going, even in reach seats like CO-3, MI-6, FL-16, PA-10, AZ-6, and Montana.

Republicans are still struggling to land decent candidates in a ton of Democratic seats that Trump won.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Wexton can lose if the GOP calls her a socialist enough times.

Trump would have to winning by a landslide for Wexton to lose

Your sarcasm detector isn’t working so hot is it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

I was about to say, we can always draw hope from the fact that 2008 was a bigger Dem wave than 2006, and then I remembered that this is one of the districts Democrats *lost* in 2008.

Is Cedric Richmond losing in 2020?

Are you seriously comparing KS-2 to LA-2 or are you trolling

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How do you post a map that you made in Dave's Redistricting App? Asking because I made a map that has three safe D NOVA Clinton +double digits seats and a fourth likely D NOVA seat that is Clinton +5% without bacon stripping. Also VA-2 is Clinton +8% and VA-7 is Clinton +7% while satisfying the 40% black VRA requirements for VA-3 and 4.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Another House recruit: Sara Hart Weir (R) officially in against Rep. Sharice Davids (D) in KS-03

https://twitter.com/sarahartweir/status/1155858444047585280

Powerful statement decrying # of GOP women in Congress and defending those with preexisting conditions. Trying to present herself as the moderate independent voice relative to Sharice David’s, whom she called a “rubber yes stamp for Pelosi.”

Imagine using someone with Down syndrome as a prop for launching your campaign and having no shame about it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1155929898378072064

Only 2 of them hadn't raised double their R opponent: Cisneros (CA-39) and Horn (OK-5).

Isn't this at least somewhat misleading? Challengers haven't been in the race as long as their incumbents.

It’s still a lot of money on the D side, especially in the 2nd quarter of an off-year. I cant find exact figures rn but most of these hauls are more than what R incumbents were bringing in in Q2 of 2017. At the very least it shows that the Democrats’ small dollar infrastructure is still working in high gear.

These totals are higher than what most vulnerable House Republicans were bringing in during Q2 2018. But yeah, we’ll get a better comparison of challengers to incumbents when Q3 numbers are posted, since a lot of challengers will have been in a whole quarter by then on both sides.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

New Texas Republican Voter Registration Pac raises almost $10 million in first quarter to keep Texas red. Ross Perot Jr. is among a handful of million dollar donors.

https://t.co/wuFTm5opEB

I can’t imagine this will be the magic bullet that will save them that they seem to think it is

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

New Texas Republican Voter Registration Pac raises almost $10 million in first quarter to keep Texas red. Ross Perot Jr. is among a handful of million dollar donors.

https://t.co/wuFTm5opEB

I can’t imagine this will be the magic bullet that will save them that they seem to think it is

It is just another piece of evidence that the Texas GOP is taking nothing for granted... and 10 million to register new Republicans will net them a lot of voters.

You’re assuming there’s a lot more reliable turnout Republican votes to be had in Texas. I think that’s a faulty assumption. If they were voters Republicans could rely on to turnout, they’d probably already be registered to begin with.

But yes. I suppose it’s shows the Texas GOP isn’t completely oblivious to their impending demographic doom

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Also did some math on Wendy Davis's strength. She is kinda weak but I think her 2014 performance was more due to a lack of minority performance. Texas 21st is definetly a district where a lot depends more on white liberals. I checked the most "white suburban romney clinton area" which is west university place in Houston. Its 85% NHW and +15 romney but +20 clinton. Wendy Davis actually TIED this area in the middle of a GOP wave.

Speaking of West University Place, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans try to primary sarah Davis out again. Of course that would be monumentally stupid since she’s the only Republican that can win that seat, but I guess they have their heads stuck up their asses

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https://mobile.twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1158197079262539777

Similar situation to #GA06 where this will actually help the GOP hold it

LOL

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Former Irving Mayor and HUD Official Beth Van Duyne is IN for #TX24.

https://www.facebook.com/1627084453/posts/10217535516252909?sfns=mo

Good recruit in my opinion. Mayor or a large city in the district as recently at 2017, Washington connections thanks to HUD (will help with fundraising), and she appears generally inoffensive.

Carpetbagger

The majority of Irving is in this district

https://twitter.com/PrdNewEnglander?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

There is absolutely nothing wrong with carpetbagging a few miles to continue to represent their former town.

Especially in a state like Texas where most people were born outside their district or state and moved. Her fate will be intertwined with Trump's in TX-24 if she's the nominee.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Former Irving Mayor and HUD Official Beth Van Duyne is IN for #TX24.

https://www.facebook.com/1627084453/posts/10217535516252909?sfns=mo

Good recruit in my opinion. Mayor or a large city in the district as recently at 2017, Washington connections thanks to HUD (will help with fundraising), and she appears generally inoffensive.

Carpetbagger

The majority of Irving is in this district

https://twitter.com/PrdNewEnglander?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

There is absolutely nothing wrong with carpetbagging a few miles to continue to represent their former town.

Especially in a state like Texas where most people were born outside their district or state and moved. Her fate will be intertwined with Trump's in TX-24 if she's the nominee.

Either way, she'll probably lose.

I agree, as I doubt Trumps wins TX-24 again.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

2014 CA-52 nominee Carl DeMaio is in for CA-50:

https://fox5sandiego.com/2019/08/05/former-san-diego-councilman-announces-2020-congressional-run/amp/

I'm not sure what I think of this paragraph:"Too many Californians are fleeing our state because of the extreme socialist agenda being imposed on us by Democrat politicians, but I refuse to flee: I choose to stand and fight," DeMaio said. "In California, voters have mostly only been given two choices: socialists or ineffective cowards."
But, a non-corrupt Republican is better than a corrupt entitled asshole in my book. I also looked up how he did in 2014 in CA-52. He lost 51.6% to 48.4% to Scott Peters. In 2018 Peters was reelected 63.6% to 36.2%. Talk about a seat that's now way out of reach for Republicans (not to mention likely all of the seats that flipped last year).

He sounds like a Milo Yiannopoulis. Sorry, I'd rather take the corrupt entitle prick over another gay Republican troll.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Carl Demaio reports raising $450k in 72 hours from 500 dollars with 20 more fundraising events scheduled by the end of September and “3000 active donor pledges coming in soon”. Cash on hand is over $700k.

https://t.co/99rxxg2wV2

He will primary Hunter and make the seat Likely R.

It would be Safe R with DeMaio.

It's California so I'm not going to be too bullish here.

Even Trump won the seat by 15. The only reason it looks competitive is because of Hunter's problems.

There were a good number of seats that swung over 15 points left in California in 2016. Not saying it’s likely it happens here in 2020, but weirder things have happened. A mediocre Trump win in CA-50 could bring down Hunter, but that might require someone other than Campa Najjar

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Former MN Senate President Michelle Fischbach contemplating a run in MN-7.

http://m.startribune.com/republicans-again-hopeful-in-the-seventh-but-collin-peterson-won-t-be-easy-to-vanquish/533124332/

Likely R, if she runs and wins the primary

That’s too generous. To Peterson, that is

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not serious. There hasn’t been a single Republican in the MA delegation since 1995 and I doubt that nutjob is the one to change it.

Do you realize Peterson is in Minnesota, not Massachusetts? And in a district that voted for Trump by 30% no less

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

GA-07: State Sen. Zahra Karinshak (D-Gwinnett) who is famous for serving as legal counsel to Roy Barnes during the flag controversy in the early 2000’s launched her run today for this Lean D seat