2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Elliot Morris is saying since last spring that Dems will win the congressional vote by 9.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ipsos/Reuters weekly, week ending Nov. 4, 408 LV

D: 50 (+1)
R: 40 (-3)

Red wave imminent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

IBD/TIPP GCB poll --- D+9

Dem 50
Rep 41

https://www.investors.com/politics/midterm-elections-democrats-generic-ballot-trump-approval-bid-tipp/

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Good news, this only had D+2 the last poll.

Aren't they moaning about how the unwashed masses don't appreciate Trump's brilliant leadership like they did a few months ago?

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone interested in a good laugh, Rasmussen/POS have the GCB at R +1.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Slew of new polls. Most noteworthy is Weak Gun Control Candidate McBath up 6-

https://twitter.com/healthcarevoter/status/1059498776157659136?s=21

Looks like GA-6 and MI-8 are flipping, and the other 4 are tossups.

These are Change polls, so....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Their poll was the most accurate predicting 2016. (Clinton by 2% vs. actual 2.1%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_nov05

I guess you weren't around in 2010 and 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1059655032394706944

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

yeah this is an amazing recruit. Great for the GOP image too. She's a star, and I expect Elise Stefanik's new PAC to absolutely DUMP money into supporting her.

Now watch your star recruit losing the primary to Grimm.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rep. Lucy McBath (GA-06) turned down a $2k contribution from Rep. Ilhan Omar:

Up in D.C., the conservative Free Beacon has pointed to a $2,000 campaign contribution that U.S. Rep. Illhan Omar, D-Minn., reported making to fellow freshman Democrat Lucy McBath of Marietta.The website noted that McBath did not report the contribution – which is true. The McBath campaign told us this morning that the contribution was not accepted.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-peachtree-city-ordinance-would-permit-libel-suits-against-critics/K4Xt15TUWCG9MaUAr5FmCN/

Probably a smart move.  The district has a substantial Jewish population.

Glorious news!

Contrary take: Accepting a political contribution from someone you dislike and want nothing to do with does not inherently make it such that you are supporting or endorsing anything about or related to them.

Try to explain that to Joe Sixpack when the 30sec attack ad comes that accuses you of bro-fisting an anti-semite terrorist sympathizer. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Allen West decides that he wants to run to chair the Texas Republicans. This is only notable because he passed on a what would have been a weird TX-32 run.

I guess having a war criminal leading the party will stop the Republicans bleeding among educated suburbanites.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cisneros trails Generic R in NRCC intrnal:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/07/09/calif_dem_who_flipped_gop_seat_in_18_trails_in_new_poll__140739.html

Salt to taste.

NRCC chair has already endorsed Generic R.

[Landslide Lyndon]

These internals are probably part of a plan to persuade Republican donors that retaking the House isn't that far-fetched a proposal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kevin McCarthy's PAC donated to Dan Lipinski

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1151617779730178048

LOL, not enough to actually help Lipinski but enough to cause mischief.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rob Bishop (R-UT) to retire after this term.

He announced his retirement two years ago.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought voter registration drives were basically illegal in Texas?

They will make them legal but only if they take place in rural diners.

[Landslide Lyndon]

New Texas Republican Voter Registration Pac raises almost $10 million in first quarter to keep Texas red. Ross Perot Jr. is among a handful of million dollar donors.

https://t.co/wuFTm5opEB

I can’t imagine this will be the magic bullet that will save them that they seem to think it is

It is just another piece of evidence that the Texas GOP is taking nothing for granted... and 10 million to register new Republicans will net them a lot of voters.

Most unregistered people are poor and minorities. Not exactly the strongest GOP demographics.
Unless of course they are going to do their drives at country clubs and NRA meetings.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Drew Savicki is an idiot. Don't quote him here.

Drew Savicki is daddy of election twitter, jmilescoleman is overrated, stop.

Jmilescoleman is an actually professional with much deeper analysis.

Miles and Drew are friends and colleagues.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Full RRH Elections rating changes:

Toward the GOP:
IA-01: Lean D -> Tossup
MN-07: Lean D -> Tossup
NV-03: Likely D - > Lean D
NJ-02: Likely D -> Lean D
NY-11: Lean D -> Tossup
OH-12: Lean R -> Likely R
OR-04: Safe D -> Likely D
PA-01: Tossup -> Lean R
TX-10: Lean R -> Likely R
TX-31: Lean R -> Likely R
VA-10: Safe D -> Likely D

Toward the Democrats:
CA-25: Lean D -> Likely D
IN-05: Likely R -> Lean R
MI-03: Likely R -> Three-way Tossup
TX-23: Lean R -> Lean D
VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D
WI-08: Safe R -> Likely R

Some of these changes are okay, but there are some pretty questionable calls in here.

And that's why they will always be a pale imitation of Daily Kos Elections.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1163655969584365568

[Landslide Lyndon]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

Evers carried that district. It might not be as strongly Democratic as it was 10 years ago but it still leans that way.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

Apparently someone got hold of photos.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't know why people are rewriting Ossoff to be a bad candidate. He raised a lot of $$, and he only did slightly worse than McBath, and that was a wave year.

Exactly. The guy was a rookie and stepped up to the plate when nobody else did. He ran a good campaign and lost by 4 in a district where Democrats were always losing by 20-30 points. And the infrastructure he left behind helped "unelectable" McBath finish the job a year later.
If only all bad candidates were like him.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

To be fair, Oberweis is far from the strongest candidate Republicans can field.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/kronayne/status/1176933596893892608