2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[politicallefty]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Wow, thats +4 from last week! Definite outlier, but one I like!

It certainly could be an outlier, but it has seemed like in the last week or two there's been a gradual shift of momentum toward the Democrats, as shown by fundraising, party advertising choices, rating changes, etc.  This was already starting before the events of last week, so I think it may just be a late break to the out party, as seen in some previous elections (not all of them, of course).

I tend to agree. Almost 0% chance the actual GCB is 17%, but what we should take away from this is that this could be evidence of a shift towards the Democrats.

Or it could be an outlier lol.

I'm pretty sure I remember reading that that was the most accurate poll in 2016. We didn't even get to 17% in the landslide years of 1964 or 1974. If it's even close though, there's a tsunami coming that a lot aren't seeing right now. If Democrats even get into the 12-14% margin range, Republicans are facing a catastrophic result worse than even Democrats had in 2010.

[politicallefty]

I'm hesitant to make any predictions at this point, but it's possible the bottom could be falling out now for Republicans. We could be looking at an outright tsunami at this point.

[politicallefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064202106922520577

This is really stunning tbh. And of course, 1970 is an odd one because Nixon won a low plurality in 1968.

[politicallefty]

Yeah Rose seems really under-rated for some reason. I don't care what climate it was, beating an uncontroversial incumbent by 6 points is a pretty impressive result.

Uncontroversial is a vast understatement. Donovan was the DA for Staten Island. People like that win with ease in many districts in this country. A high-profile conviction can easily be your ticket to Congress. Max Rose was an impressive candidate that campaigned heavily on local issues in a district where that really works. I remember Colbert covering him at least once or twice. If he has strong constituent services and outreach, I think he stands a very good chance at winning reelection. On the other hand, I don't want to predict because Staten Island can be volatile and unpredictable at the federal level.

[politicallefty]

Looking at past midterms in relation to the next presidential election, I think Democrats need about a 3% win nationally to retain the majority. After a midterm (particularly a wave) election, even when the House popular vote margin massively contracts or even votes for the minority party, it doesn't tend to shift the size of the majority by much. If I had to guess, it's a result of the new majority winning a lot of low-hanging fruit that the other party doesn't seriously contest in the next election (i.e. the presidential year). For example (bold for the majority party, italics for minority in the next House):

1972: D+5.6% (R+12)
1974: D+16.8% (D+49)
1976: D+13.6% (D+1)

1980: D+2.6% (R+34)
1982: D+11.8% (D+26)
1984: D+5.1% (R+16)

1992: D+5.0% (R+9)
1994: R+6.8% (R+54)
1996: D+0.0% (D+2)

2004: R+2.6% (R+3)
2006: D+8.0% (D+31)
2008: D+10.6% (D+21)

2010: R+6.8% (R+63)
2012: D+1.2% (D+8)

2014: R+5.7% (R+13)
2016: R+1.1% (D+6)

2018: D+8.6% (D+41)
2020: ??

I probably could've shortened this just by saying that gains tend to be very limited in presidential years, apart from landslides. Even then, they mostly pale compared to midterm waves. If it weren't for the horrendously gerrymandered maps of some states, I think it'd be possible for the Democratic Majority to survive even a loss of the popular vote.

[politicallefty]

I didn't see this posted anywhere, but the Democratic lead in the generic ballot is quite substantial right now:

Link.

The Economist/YouGov survey of registered voters found that 48 percent of respondents said they would vote Democratic next year, 37 percent would vote Republican and 11 percent were not sure.

The 11 point lead is up from an Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 21-23, when Democrats held a 7 point advantage over Republicans.

I think there may be a point where we start asking whether or not Democrats increase their House majority and maybe by how much.