Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 24, 2019, 10:58:54 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +6
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +6  (Read 1431 times)
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,008
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 26, 2018, 06:46:33 pm »

Stabenow (D, inc.)   52
James (R)               46


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_8-18_Press_Release_10-26-18.pdf


Isn't Mitchell a Republican pollster? Let me know if it is so I'll put it in the title.
Logged
Polarized MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,406
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2018, 06:48:14 pm »

Wow, this really has tightened considerably.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,315
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2018, 06:53:48 pm »

This is probably a "coming home" effect for Michigan Republicans, though the lack of early voting will make any late momentum in Michigan more apparent (like in 2016 in the Midwest)
Logged
DataGuy
Full Member
***
Posts: 217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2018, 07:14:57 pm »

I'm still cautious about the race really being this close, but if James does in fact lose by only single digits against a popular incumbent in a Democratic year in a blue-leaning state, that would suggest to me that Michigan is still very much a battleground in 2020.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,034
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2018, 07:25:21 pm »

No, Mitchell is just one of those special Michigan pollsters. They had it at +9 three weeks ago and +13 in mid-September.

Stabenow (D, inc.)   52
James (R)               46


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_8-18_Press_Release_10-26-18.pdf


Isn't Mitchell a Republican pollster? Let me know if it is so I'll put it in the title.
Logged
Lok
lok1999
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,269
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2018, 07:25:49 pm »

Mitchell is a Republican-affiliated person iirc
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,845
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2018, 08:08:12 pm »

Okay, sure, maybe this race has tightened, but notice that Stabenow is... how should I put it... above 50 percent. If there was a race to be found here, Republicans and Democrats alike would've quickly started to spend here, and they haven't. Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2018, 08:51:45 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 08:58:56 pm by RussFeingoldWasRobbedk »

Race hasn't tightened! Racist trumpists are not going to vote for a black man. Macomb county that trump flipped? It will vote for Stabenow comfortably. You reap what you sew. You spew racism, your base wont elect black people.
17-18 points
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,254
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2018, 09:08:35 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 09:14:10 pm by Lou Barletta's Teeth »

Okay, sure, maybe this race has tightened, but notice that Stabenow is... how should I put it... above 50 percent. If there was a race to be found here, Republicans and Democrats alike would've quickly started to spend here, and they haven't. Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.

The RNCC has also shown no interest in investing in James, which suggests they donít buy the race being close either.

Hopefully when James loses heíll fade into oblivion like Darryl Glenn and Alan Keyes.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,525


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2018, 09:44:41 pm »

lol Stabenow actually does better with blacks (82-18) than Whitmer (80-18).
Logged
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,865
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2018, 09:52:12 pm »

lol Stabenow actually does better with blacks (82-18) than Whitmer (80-18).

That's within the MOE though.

I don't think 18% of black voters are voting Republican in MI, but that likely is just a combination of the normal MOE (sampling error) and measurement error (people checking the wrong box).
Logged
Polarized MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,406
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2018, 10:07:11 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 10:10:43 pm by Garfield County Republicans 4 Candidate Quality »

Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.

I didnít claim that, but itís certainly not the 15- to 20-point Stabenow wipeout we were told was guaranteed to happen. And the only reason I have it as Likely D is because James is a far stronger candidate than Vukmir or Barletta (which I have as Safe D) and running in a more GOP-friendly state than Hugin (also Safe D), I donít think heíll actually win or that there will be a 2016 redux here.
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,845
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2018, 10:10:35 pm »

Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.

I didnít claim that, but itís certainly not the 15- to 20-point Stabenow wipeout we were told was guaranteed to happen. And the only reason I have it as Likely D is because James is a far stronger candidate than Vukmir or Barletta (which I have as Safe D) and running in a more GOP-friendly than Hugin (also Safe D), I donít think heíll actually win or that there will be a 2016 redux here.

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: 2.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2018, 10:17:49 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 10:32:21 pm by SN2903 »

4 polls have it at least 7 or under in the last week. It's close to within the MOE right now. Also James will win Macomb County. Oakland Stabenow will likely win. This race will come down to Wayne County and how much of the black vote James can get as I think James will do fairly well in the western part of the state. This race will be closer than the MN or WI senate race. Michigan is turning into a more red state than Minnesota or Wisconsin.
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,254
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2018, 10:18:54 pm »

4 polls have it at least 7 or under in the last week. It's close to within the MOI right now. Also James will win Macomb County. Oakland Stabenow will likely win. This race will come down to Wayne County and how much of the black vote James can get as I think James will do fairly well in the western part of the state. This race will be closer than the MN or WI senate race. Michigan is turning into a more red state than Minnesota or Wisconsin.

You're really bad at trolling.

Even this poll shows Stabenow is getting 82% of the black vote.
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: 2.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2018, 10:33:37 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 10:36:41 pm by SN2903 »

4 polls have it at least 7 or under in the last week. It's close to within the MOI right now. Also James will win Macomb County. Oakland Stabenow will likely win. This race will come down to Wayne County and how much of the black vote James can get as I think James will do fairly well in the western part of the state. This race will be closer than the MN or WI senate race. Michigan is turning into a more red state than Minnesota or Wisconsin.

You're really bad at trolling.

Even this poll shows Stabenow is getting 82% of the black vote.
The African-American community is turning against the democratic party. They are realizing it's  bunch of yuppie limousine liberals who care nothing about them. Trump is getting them jobs. Democrats only care about gay marriage, global warming and standing up for illegal immigrants. They have no platform other than a far left ideology and identity politics. The democrats used to be for the working class and focused on economics.
Logged
Polarized MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,406
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2018, 10:39:35 pm »

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

I just donít think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, itís just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. Iíll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think itís ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,845
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2018, 10:45:14 pm »

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

I just donít think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, itís just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. Iíll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think itís ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).

Fair enough, that is at least consistent. I don't think she'll win easily because she's a political goddess, rather because if the GCB is anything like D+7-8, a D+1 state won't be especially close, even if Michigan is starting to trend rightward.
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: 2.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2018, 10:47:04 pm »

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

I just donít think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, itís just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. Iíll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think itís ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).
Stabenow is not liked here in Michigan. I agree that she is riding the anti-Trump wave and so is Whitmer but I still think they can lose. They are def both favored but I do think the last few weeks I have noticed a big increase in GOP enthusiasm. Despite what democrats say RALLIES MATTER. Having 5,000 people at a rally for a guy who was an unknown a few months ago is pretty impressive. James also now has 82 percent name ID in the state. I think there is a possibility that the polls are not picking up his true level of support. I am not buying that the democrat turnout will be big this year I think it will be more than normal but there's a lot of evidence that their enthusiasm has waned after Kavanaugh and with Trump's rising approval rating it has to be souring some democrats from wanting to participate.
Logged
Polarized MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,406
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2018, 10:53:50 pm »

Stabenow is not liked here in Michigan. I agree that she is riding the anti-Trump wave and so is Whitmer but I still think they can lose. They are def both favored but I do think the last few weeks I have noticed a big increase in GOP enthusiasm. Despite what democrats say RALLIES MATTER. Having 5,000 people at a rally for a guy who was an unknown a few months ago is pretty impressive. James also now has 82 percent name ID in the state. I think there is a possibility that the polls are not picking up his true level of support. I am not buying that the democrat turnout will be big this year I think it will be more than normal but there's a lot of evidence that their enthusiasm has waned after Kavanaugh and with Trump's rising approval rating it has to be souring some democrats from wanting to participate.

I agree that Stabenow is overrated, but high Republican turnout isnít going to be enough in a state like MI if Independents break heavily for Democrats. And even Trump only won MI by like .2% against one of the least popular Democratic candidates ever, so it makes sense that Democrats would be favored in MI in a more favorable year for their party.
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: 2.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2018, 11:04:08 pm »

The latest poll has James winning with independents I believe and doing real well with 18-29. It is looking like James may have a better chance than Schuette.
Logged
Wolverine22
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2018, 11:11:14 pm »

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

I just donít think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, itís just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. Iíll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think itís ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).
Stabenow is not liked here in Michigan. I agree that she is riding the anti-Trump wave and so is Whitmer but I still think they can lose. They are def both favored but I do think the last few weeks I have noticed a big increase in GOP enthusiasm. Despite what democrats say RALLIES MATTER. Having 5,000 people at a rally for a guy who was an unknown a few months ago is pretty impressive. James also now has 82 percent name ID in the state. I think there is a possibility that the polls are not picking up his true level of support. I am not buying that the democrat turnout will be big this year I think it will be more than normal but there's a lot of evidence that their enthusiasm has waned after Kavanaugh and with Trump's rising approval rating it has to be souring some democrats from wanting to participate.

If that were the case, then Abdul El-Sayed would have creamed Whitmer in the primary. This idea that Kavanaugh hurt Democrats is just plain bullsh**t and itís actually turning voters against the Republican Party because despite what the GOP echo chamber keeps saying, the vast majority of Americans believe Blasey Ford and opposed Kavanaughís confirmation.

Hereís Debbie Stabenowís map in 2006:

Img


And 2012:

Img


Thatís whatís about to happen. Debbie Stabenow is the most well-known politician in this state and she is an entrenched incumbent. She has done nothing to cause her popularity to wane, and in a blue wave year voters are not going to turn out an incumbent Democrat with a high name recognition and approval rating. If her support were actually tanking as you say, then she would have gone negative on him a long time ago. She wonít win every county in the state like Levin used to, but sheís almost to the point of invincibility that Levin enjoyed for his last four terms. And as for the black vote question, Black voters donít go and vote against their own interests and vote Republican just because the GOP candidate is black. John James wonít get a single African-American vote besides his own.
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: 2.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2018, 11:13:29 pm »

You are truly delusional if you think Kavanaugh helped the democrats. Even MSNBC is saying the GOP got a big boost from it. Americans like winners and democrats aren't winning anything lately. GOP is dominating all the political fights.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,182
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2018, 11:26:03 pm »

Please tell us more about how Black voters will vote for a Black man running as a Republican who also ran an ad with a swastika as red meat for the Republican base. Tell us more.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,259
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2018, 11:33:37 pm »

You are truly delusional if you think Kavanaugh helped the democrats. Even MSNBC is saying the GOP got a big boost from it. Americans like winners and democrats aren't winning anything lately. GOP is dominating all the political fights.

Most polls since things have calmed down say that the Kavanaugh confirmation has energized Democrats more than Republicans.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC