MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +6

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, this really has tightened considerably.

[MT Treasurer]

Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.

I didn’t claim that, but it’s certainly not the 15- to 20-point Stabenow wipeout we were told was guaranteed to happen. And the only reason I have it as Likely D is because James is a far stronger candidate than Vukmir or Barletta (which I have as Safe D) and running in a more GOP-friendly state than Hugin (also Safe D), I don’t think he’ll actually win or that there will be a 2016 redux here.

[MT Treasurer]

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

I just don’t think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, it’s just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. I’ll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think it’s ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).

[MT Treasurer]

Stabenow is not liked here in Michigan. I agree that she is riding the anti-Trump wave and so is Whitmer but I still think they can lose. They are def both favored but I do think the last few weeks I have noticed a big increase in GOP enthusiasm. Despite what democrats say RALLIES MATTER. Having 5,000 people at a rally for a guy who was an unknown a few months ago is pretty impressive. James also now has 82 percent name ID in the state. I think there is a possibility that the polls are not picking up his true level of support. I am not buying that the democrat turnout will be big this year I think it will be more than normal but there's a lot of evidence that their enthusiasm has waned after Kavanaugh and with Trump's rising approval rating it has to be souring some democrats from wanting to participate.

I agree that Stabenow is overrated, but high Republican turnout isn’t going to be enough in a state like MI if Independents break heavily for Democrats. And even Trump only won MI by like .2% against one of the least popular Democratic candidates ever, so it makes sense that Democrats would be favored in MI in a more favorable year for their party.