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  MI-EPIC/MRA: Whitmer +5
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Author Topic: MI-EPIC/MRA: Whitmer +5  (Read 934 times)
Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment
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« on: October 25, 2018, 08:17:09 am »

46% Whitmer (D)
41% Schuette (R)

Attorney General:

39% Tom Leonard (R)
39% Dana Nessel (D)

Secretary of State:

40% Jocelyn Benson (D)
36% Mary Treder Lang (R)

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/25/free-press-poll-whitmer-lead-over-schuette-shrinks-5-points/1748709002/
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 08:20:23 am »

Pretty much an outlier.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2018, 08:24:39 am »


Their last poll had Whitmer +8, so it's not like it's a big difference.
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2018, 08:41:02 am »


Their last poll had Whitmer +8, so it's not like it's a big difference.

Compared to what other pollsters have shown, this is basically an outlier.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2018, 08:41:11 am »

This was taken right after the MRG poll. I wish a serious pollster would jump in here.

Does anyone know if the RGA or the NRSC is spending in Michigan?
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 11:33:28 am »

Unless other polls show something similar, I see little reason to be worried.
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Joshua
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 11:56:37 am »

Glorious Gretchen is going to curbstomp Scumbag Schuette. Move along.
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Atlas: Consistently Wrong
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 02:52:12 pm »

When Trump wins Michigan by >+5 in 2020 the sanctity of the election will be safer if someone like Schuette is in charge. Let's hope he wins.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 05:38:09 pm »

I am just ecstatic that Jocelyn Benson is looking like the next Michigan Secretary of State, and riding on a wave that will not only deliver a huge package of pro-voter reforms but also fair redistricting.

I mean, look at this bio snippet:

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She seems like a true believer in voting rights and voter access. It's a huge change from the dominant force in SoS offices around the country over the past 8 years: Republican empty suits or full blown partisan hacks who have leaned heavily on their official powers to shrink the electorate to advantage the GOP. I'm not saying all of them are bad, not at all, but taken as a whole, they are bad enough to where it's fair to say that even for Republican-leaning voters, let alone any Democrat or left-leaning voter, who care about fair elections should never, ever vote for a Republican Secretary of State. Not in this climate. Not if they don't want to risk accidentally putting in a person more devoted to their party's grip on power than the people.
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2018, 02:55:03 pm »

Gretchen and Stabenow are tanking. Why is it always an outlier when a Republican is gaining ? Give me a break.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2018, 02:57:23 pm »

Gretchen and Stabenow are tanking. Why is it always an outlier when a Republican is gaining ? Give me a break.

Well when it's the only poll that shows such a result...
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2018, 05:21:26 pm »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.
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SN2903
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2018, 05:59:00 pm »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.
You are drinking the koolaid...even MSNBC is saying GOP is making a comeback and democrat turnout operation is poor. You honestly think there is going to be a blue wave when the enthusiasm gap is even now? In 06, 10 and 2014 there were all double digit enthusiam gaps for the winning party. Face it your party blew it with Kavanaugh and their lurch to the far left. GOP is probably gonna retain the house.
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SN2903
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2018, 06:00:19 pm »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.
The high turnout doesn't favor democrats. GOP is activated now and democrats are notoriously poor at turning out in midterms. I think they are all hype this year.
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Hlewagastiz Holtijaz
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2018, 06:26:47 pm »


You're right! Republican turnout will be much higher than the democrats. Which means you can stay home on Election Day and not vote, safe in the knowledge your team will win. Congrats!
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2018, 09:41:48 pm »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.
You are drinking the koolaid...even MSNBC is saying GOP is making a comeback and democrat turnout operation is poor. You honestly think there is going to be a blue wave when the enthusiasm gap is even now? In 06, 10 and 2014 there were all double digit enthusiam gaps for the winning party. Face it your party blew it with Kavanaugh and their lurch to the far left. GOP is probably gonna retain the house.

You’re clearly in the Denial phase of the Kubler Ross phases. I guess anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance will come after November 6.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2018, 09:48:45 pm »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.
You are drinking the koolaid...even MSNBC is saying GOP is making a comeback and democrat turnout operation is poor. You honestly think there is going to be a blue wave when the enthusiasm gap is even now? In 06, 10 and 2014 there were all double digit enthusiam gaps for the winning party. Face it your party blew it with Kavanaugh and their lurch to the far left. GOP is probably gonna retain the house.

You’re clearly in the Denial phase of the Kubler Ross phases. I guess anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance will come after November 6.

I don't think acceptance will come. There will be claims of fraud if Democrats win.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2018, 09:58:47 pm »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.

The fact neither the RGA nor the RNCC are showing any interest of investing in Schuette and James shows that not even they are buying the races being close.
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SN2903
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2018, 10:25:59 pm »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.

The fact neither the RGA nor the RNCC are showing any interest of investing in Schuette and James shows that not even they are buying the races being close.
So? The national pundits didn't think Michigan would be that close a day before the election last time..
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2018, 12:27:14 am »

This thread is a good example of the extreme partisanship which time and time again is displayed by posters on this board. While the most recent polls have tightened somewhat, I still think that Democrats will win easily in Michigan's statewide races this year. There has been a trend away from the Republican Party, and Michigan is still a Democratic leaning state.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2018, 12:33:58 am »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.

The fact neither the RGA nor the RNCC are showing any interest of investing in Schuette and James shows that not even they are buying the races being close.
So? The national pundits didn't think Michigan would be that close a day before the election last time..

Umm the RNCC was investing heavily into Michigan in 2016.
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SN2903
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2018, 09:23:42 am »

Even if the polls were actually tightening, the record-high turnout is going to swamp MI Republicans up and down the ballot. Internally they are bracing for a total collapse all the way down the ballot. Stabenow is not losing, neither is Whitmer, and yes there really is a blue wave coming.

The fact neither the RGA nor the RNCC are showing any interest of investing in Schuette and James shows that not even they are buying the races being close.
So? The national pundits didn't think Michigan would be that close a day before the election last time..

Umm the RNCC was investing heavily into Michigan in 2016.
When? Michigan wasn't even considered a battleground till the last 2 weeks last time.
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SN2903
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2018, 09:24:57 am »

This thread is a good example of the extreme partisanship which time and time again is displayed by posters on this board. While the most recent polls have tightened somewhat, I still think that Democrats will win easily in Michigan's statewide races this year. There has been a trend away from the Republican Party, and Michigan is still a Democratic leaning state.
Michigan is not really a dem leaning state anymore. Snyder got elected twice for governor. Trump won in 2016. Macomb county used to be a democratic county but has been moving toward the republicans for years. Oakland County actually has moved left from where it used to be because of the yuppie base for the democrats it has there. Michigan is a purple state.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2018, 09:38:54 am »

This thread is a good example of the extreme partisanship which time and time again is displayed by posters on this board. While the most recent polls have tightened somewhat, I still think that Democrats will win easily in Michigan's statewide races this year. There has been a trend away from the Republican Party, and Michigan is still a Democratic leaning state.
Michigan is not really a dem leaning state anymore. Snyder got elected twice for governor. Trump won in 2016. Macomb county used to be a democratic county but has been moving toward the republicans for years. Oakland County actually has moved left from where it used to be because of the yuppie base for the democrats it has there. Michigan is a purple state.
I'd say Michigan is a purplish state with blue tendencies.  You guys have two Dem Senators, after all.

Your logic is like saying Indiana isn't a true Republican state because we had two Dem governors (well, technically three, given O'Bannon's death toward the end of his term) for 16 years straight
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Virginiá
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2018, 09:40:53 am »

This thread is a good example of the extreme partisanship which time and time again is displayed by posters on this board. While the most recent polls have tightened somewhat, I still think that Democrats will win easily in Michigan's statewide races this year. There has been a trend away from the Republican Party, and Michigan is still a Democratic leaning state.
Michigan is not really a dem leaning state anymore. Snyder got elected twice for governor. Trump won in 2016. Macomb county used to be a democratic county but has been moving toward the republicans for years. Oakland County actually has moved left from where it used to be because of the yuppie base for the democrats it has there. Michigan is a purple state.

Depends on how you want to look at it. Look at the party vote share of legislative elections over the past 15+ years:




You see a trend, right? In the state House popular vote - particularly relevant since they hold elections every 2 years vs 4 for the Senate, Democrats have won the popular vote in all but 3 cycles since 2002. And in 2 of the 3 they lost it, they came very close to winning.

Michigan isn't as Republican as you think. It's swingy enough for the party that doesn't control the White House to win executive offices, but the electorate definitely leans Democratic as a whole. The only reason the MIGOP has had a grip on the legislature is because of gerrymandering. They would have lost the state House in 2012 otherwise.
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