MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest

[Ebsy]

Remington definitely has a more mixed record than PPP. I'm interested in seeing what other polling we get before election day.

[RI]

I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again.

PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me."

Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it."

Seriously.

A lot of Dems seriously buy into the "reality has a liberal bias" idea.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ND and IN are surely gone. WVa and MO are iffy though.

[Seriously?]

PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me."

Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it."

Seriously.

[Person Man]

I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again.

PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me."

Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it."

Seriously.

What are the 538bhouse effects?

[Zaybay]

Sad to see that we have only gotten R polls so far, no neutral ones. Why can’t Marist, Q, Yougov,or even Emerson just come down to the state?

[Xing]

Yeah, Republicans on this site never say that PPP (D) polls are biased.

I buy that McCaskill is a bit behind, and I don't think this poll is necessarily biased toward Republicans, but I'd still call this race a Toss-Up.

[psychprofessor]

I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again.

I honestly don't see people take Democrat internals at face value. This is an R leaning polling outfit that has consistently shown Hawley ahead by 2-4 points. I don't think anyone is underestimating McCaskill's vulnerability - this is a pure tossup.

[IceSpear]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

[IceSpear]

Sad to see that we have only gotten R polls so far, no neutral ones. Why can’t Marist, Q, Yougov,or even Emerson just come down to the state?

Really? Emerson is garbage. Remington is a Republican pollster but they run circles around Emerson.

[Calthrina950]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

[Calthrina950]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

That too. Personally, I still think Sinema will win, but it will be extremely close.

[Don Vito Corleone]

There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?

[junior chįmp]

There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?

Im kinda glad polling has been sparse. Makes election night much more unpredictable and exciting.

[IceSpear]

There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?

Polling in general is in a pretty fast decline. 2014 had roughly double the amount of polls 2018 has had, 2010 roughly triple.

[Don Vito Corleone]

There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?

Polling in general is in a pretty fast decline. 2014 had roughly double the amount of polls 2018 has had, 2010 roughly triple.

Why is polling in decline?

[jamestroll]

The contest will be within 2 ing percentage points. She is not dead yet. Give McCaskill credit for polling so well despite poor favorable ratings.

[ContrarianLibertarian]

This is becoming a f**king nightmare

Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4

I don’t care. The senate is on a verge of a red wave and be filled with douchebags like Hawley

Well, it’s pretty much a lock that the Dems will win a majority in the House.  Even the lower band of projections there puts them at a net gain of 25 seats...a couple more than they need.  It seems likely they’ll get more than that.

But this Senate map was a very bad one for Dems.  A lot of Red-State Ds up for re-election at a time of increasing polarization.

[IceSpear]

There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?

Polling in general is in a pretty fast decline. 2014 had roughly double the amount of polls 2018 has had, 2010 roughly triple.

Why is polling in decline?

Probably a combination of a few things. Big polling misses shaking confidence in the industry, the decline of the media in general leading them to cut costs (polls cost money), aggregators like 538 and RCP making individual polls less impactful, etc.

[ElectionsGuy]

There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?

Pollsters and big media companies care very little about small to average sized states in the middle of the country. That's why we get 16 polls for Florida and Texas but next to nothing for Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, etc.

[Zaybay]

Sad to see that we have only gotten R polls so far, no neutral ones. Why can’t Marist, Q, Yougov,or even Emerson just come down to the state?

Really? Emerson is garbage. Remington is a Republican pollster but they run circles around Emerson.

perhaps not, but I use it for emphasis. I would really take any pollster at this point that wasnt an R internal, for thats all we have of the race for the last month.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is becoming a f**king nightmare

This is nightmare-lite. The true nightmare is where Hillary wins and Republicans have about 60 Senators after this election. And that Supreme Court seat is still vacant. And Republicans make gains in the control of the state governments so that they can increase gerrymandering even more for the next redistricting.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is becoming a f**king nightmare

This is nightmare-lite. The true nightmare is where Hillary wins and Republicans have about 60 Senators after this election. And that Supreme Court seat is still vacant. And Republicans make gains in the control of the state governments so that they can increase gerrymandering even more for the next redistricting.

You’re in love with Hillary aren’t you?

[CookieDamage]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.