MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

[CookieDamage]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

Okay, first of all, EV is not that important in every state just because it has a large influence in Nevada. An EV firewall won't matter if Sinema and the Blue Wave brings out tons of new voters or additional Dems. Second of all, her "loss" of a state trooper endorsement will have NO effect on the race despite what you claim.

And where exactly did Data Orbital claim that their poll was wrong because of early voting?? You need to cite it lmao.

[Zaybay]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

I would like to refer you to the AZ-07 special election early vote.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

Okay, first of all, EV is not that important in every state just because it has a large influence in Nevada. An EV firewall won't matter if Sinema and the Blue Wave brings out tons of new voters or additional Dems. Second of all, her "loss" of a state trooper endorsement will have NO effect on the race despite what you claim.

And where exactly did Data Orbital claim that their poll was wrong because of early voting?? You need to cite it lmao.

Most of the time yes but the EV in Arizona is so lopsided that it’s impossible to dismiss. Also the Data orbital article flat out states in the first paragraph thatvits EV influenced http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

I would like to refer you to the AZ-06 special election early vote.

That just as easily could of been a fluke. Forgive me but I’m not holding my breath when the arguments right now for Sinema is more or less the same Hillary argument of expecting this big gop cross over

[Zaybay]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

I would like to refer you to the AZ-06 special election early vote.

That just as easily could of been a fluke. Forgive me but I’m not holding my breath when the arguments right now for Sinema is more or less the same Hillary argument of expecting this big gop cross over

I bring up the election because of your point, that the R early vote is high. The problem with your statement is that we dont know who is voting. As we saw in AZ-07, there are clearly Ds who still have R registration. We saw this in OH-12 as well. The problem with looking at just the straight party registration is that you miss that in areas that saw a shift towards Clinton, like the two previous districts and areas like Orange County CA.

I should also say that the R advantage since Thursday, the date of the article, has been constantly shrinking.

[CookieDamage]

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

I would like to refer you to the AZ-06 special election early vote.

That just as easily could of been a fluke. Forgive me but I’m not holding my breath when the arguments right now for Sinema is more or less the same Hillary argument of expecting this big gop cross over

I bring up the election because of your point, that the R early vote is high. The problem with your statement is that we dont know who is voting. As we saw in AZ-07, there are clearly Ds who still have R registration. We saw this in OH-12 as well. The problem with looking at just the straight party registration is that you miss that.

I should also say that the R advantage since Thursday, the date of the article, has been constantly shrinking.

Thank you!

Also George Khalaf, the guy from the article and president of Data Orbital, is hot.

AND with a little research I discovered his page and noticed he is a former political director for the AZ GOP! Now that puts this all into context.

[Wisconsin+17]

Tossup -> Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

[J. J.]

Are people just trolling in this thread or...

Remington is an R pollster. Pretty sure they've had it at Hawley +3 or +4 the entire cycle.

Try +2.  It is trending for Hawley.

[Tender Branson]

R pollsters are generally wrong in Democratic wave years like this one and tend to show overblown winning margins for Republicans to create an alternative reality that isn't there ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Incumbent Heidi is losing and McCaskill can lose. It's an anti incumbent year, not just a Dem wave year

[Adam Griffin]

I said many months ago - and reiterated a few weeks back - that I thought McCaskill was the weakest in terms of state fundamentals. She isn't in the Plains or (Upper) Midwest, doesn't enjoy the same level of elastic white voters and is arguably the most "Southern" Democrat up for re-election in the Senate. Even before Heitkamp, I think the regional fundamentals suggested McCaskill was the first to go down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone of the 4 Dems can lose Manchin, Heidi, Donnelly and Mccaskill

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone of the 4 Dems can lose Manchin, Heidi, Donnelly and Mccaskill

They are all gonna lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can find a narrow path to majority if only 2/4 loses, and the Dems can win NV, AZ, TN and either MSb or TX will give Dems 51/49 Senate. Dems would rather see Manchin and Heidi lose, due to Manchin voting wrong on Kavanaugh and Heidi is gone, anyways 😁

[SN2903]

Anyone of the 4 Dems can lose Manchin, Heidi, Donnelly and Mccaskill

They are all gonna lose.

yep I agree and Stabenow will lose too.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well, as long as Dems win Missouri State Auditor, who cares about the US Senate?

[Young Conservative]

Jeff Roe is on twitter saying he finally thinks McCaskill is out of tricks and is calling the race easily for Hawley...doesnt seem like the kind of guy who would set his company up for a disappointment, considering his firm does lots of work in MO

[Pandaguineapig]

Jeff Roe is on twitter saying he finally thinks McCaskill is out of tricks and is calling the race easily for Hawley...doesnt seem like the kind of guy who would set his company up for a disappointment, considering his firm does lots of work in MO

According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month

[MT Treasurer]

According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month

Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night.

[Pandaguineapig]

According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month

Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night.

Eh, Mccaskill's campaign certainly isn't behaving like it's not behind, she also has trailed in the last 7 public polls of this race

[jamestroll]

I am not stating McCaskill is dead yet but it does not look good.

Democrats probably get the consolation prize of state auditor through sheer luck. Still, it is better than nothing. The position that watches the government is a Democrat.

We can not project into future elections. Maybe Democrats can take down Parson who has lower ID. Maybe Democrats can contest the new appointed attorney general.

But Missouri will be very Republican.

Keep in mind that McCaskill will lose while medical marijuana and 12.00 minimum wage landslide in the state.

A democrat who was more popular could have held on.

[Zaybay]

Seriously, we still havent gotten a single non-partisan poll of the race. Can you guys not start sounding alarm bells every time an R pollster shows Hawley up by 2.

[Hindsight was 2020]

According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month

Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night.

Yeah because internal polling is known for its reliability