MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest (user search)
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  MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest (search mode)
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Author Topic: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest  (Read 5413 times)
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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*****
Posts: 13,364
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« on: October 27, 2018, 08:31:15 AM »

This is becoming a f**king nightmare
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2018, 08:40:25 AM »


Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4
I don’t care. The senate is on a verge of a red wave and be filled with douchebags like Hawley
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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*****
Posts: 13,364
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2018, 08:50:24 AM »

The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways
I never thought we’d win it either but I always thought 50-50 split of winning NV, AZ but losing ND was the likeliest outcome. But now it looks like we’re going to lose ND, MO, IN, and maybe FL if we don’t start picking up our EV while only winning NV and even that is on shaky grounds.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2018, 09:02:19 AM »

The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways
I never thought we’d win it either but I always thought 50-50 split of winning NV, AZ but losing ND was the likeliest outcome. But now it looks like we’re going to lose ND, MO, IN, and maybe FL if we don’t start picking up our EV while only winning NV and even that is on shaky grounds.

I think we are fine in Indiana,  Florida,  and Montana. I'm willing to say that North Dakota and Missouri might be out of reach and that its become more important than ever to improve in Florida,  Georgia,  Arizona,  Nevada, and eventually Texas.
Arizona looks like it’s on the verge of being out of reach. Florida should be alright but it’s scary seeing the gop do well with in person voting
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2018, 03:56:48 PM »

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.
Arizona isn’t looking good
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2018, 11:17:28 PM »


This is nightmare-lite. The true nightmare is where Hillary wins and Republicans have about 60 Senators after this election. And that Supreme Court seat is still vacant. And Republicans make gains in the control of the state governments so that they can increase gerrymandering even more for the next redistricting.
You’re in love with Hillary aren’t you?
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2018, 11:34:19 PM »

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.
Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.
Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2018, 11:48:53 PM »

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.
Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.
Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

Okay, first of all, EV is not that important in every state just because it has a large influence in Nevada. An EV firewall won't matter if Sinema and the Blue Wave brings out tons of new voters or additional Dems. Second of all, her "loss" of a state trooper endorsement will have NO effect on the race despite what you claim.

And where exactly did Data Orbital claim that their poll was wrong because of early voting?? You need to cite it lmao.
Most of the time yes but the EV in Arizona is so lopsided that it’s impossible to dismiss. Also the Data orbital article flat out states in the first paragraph thatvits EV influenced http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2018, 11:52:19 PM »

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.
Arizona isn’t looking good

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.
Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

I would like to refer you to the AZ-06 special election early vote.
That just as easily could of been a fluke. Forgive me but I’m not holding my breath when the arguments right now for Sinema is more or less the same Hillary argument of expecting this big gop cross over
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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*****
Posts: 13,364
United States


« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2018, 06:55:57 AM »

According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month

Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night.
Yeah because internal polling is known for its reliability
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