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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL
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Author Topic: CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL  (Read 3076 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 28, 2018, 09:38:22 am »

46% Mike Braun (Republican)
43% Joe Donnelly (Democrat)
  3% Lucy Brenton (Libertarian)

Link

47% Kyrsten Sinema (Democrat)
44% Martha McSally (Republican)

Link

46% Bill Nelson (Democrat)
46% Rick Scott (Republican)

Link
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2018, 09:39:42 am »

FL looks like an outlier, AZ good, and IN a kick in the balls
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2018, 09:43:59 am »

OMG, and people said that Scott was already dead, this proves otherwise. In the end, the independents will go for McSally, Sinema is too far left for the state.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2018, 09:44:07 am »

Literally 10 minutes ago I had (and have) this gut feeling that Donnelly is going to lose and changed my prediction from Donnelly to Braun, and now a poll comes out with him behind. Of course, it's still a toss-up.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2018, 09:44:39 am »

New Poll: Indiana Senator by YouGov on 2018-10-26

Summary: D: 43%, R: 46%, I: 3%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2018, 09:46:35 am »

New Poll: Arizona Senator by YouGov on 2018-10-26

Summary: D: 47%, R: 44%, I: 3%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2018, 09:48:38 am »

New Poll: Florida Senator by YouGov on 2018-10-26

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, I: 1%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2018, 09:53:38 am »

But Nate Silver told me that Heitkamp was more likely to win than Braun because of MUH incumbency. Roll Eyes
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2018, 09:54:24 am »

YouGov is a terrible pollster. Donít take seriously
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2018, 09:56:41 am »

YouGov is a terrible pollster. Donít take seriously

This, and yes Iím including the good Dem poll in AZ.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2018, 10:00:34 am »

I wouldn't read too much into polls that were conducted over the past few days ...
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Aurelio21
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2018, 10:05:33 am »
« Edited: October 28, 2018, 10:16:43 am by Aurelio21 »

Short review of the AZ/FL-Polls: They seem to be about right, yet the high number of undecided voters is startling.

Most higher quality pollster have Sen. Nelson leading 3-4 % with much fewer undecieded. What bothers me is No 21: The approval ratings are copied from an older issue of this pollster.

Mrs. Sinema appearantly has the right moderate tone for denting into REPs disgruntled with Trump.

I've read the crosstabs of the Indiana Poll. The most interesting question was No 20:
28 %! like mostly D Trumps policies and are willing to tolerate him. This is quite believable and underlines that the dynamics of the race are on Braun's side.

If anything Sen. Donelly can do now is outlining himself as reasonable alternative which checks on Mr Trump who is better suited bringing him in line with Hoosier values. And being a stronger leader on "the caravan" which narrative cannot be rationally countered.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2018, 10:14:58 am »

Word of caution: young voters make up too large a portion of the electorate in AZ and IN in these (15-17% under 30 lol...). Florida looks about right demographically (12%, which might still be high but isnít unreasonable).

When dealing with online polls Iíd bet this is the biggest struggle.

Overall these results indicate that Donnelly has a tough road ahead, Florida should go Dem narrowly, and AZ will be a pure tossup. Personally I think that Ds got way oversampled in the AZ poll but everyone knows I think McSally is going to win by 5-7 so I probably donít need to repeat that again

Gilium+1 on Desantis in this poll, and Ducey +13. Pretty good results to Ds in both races considering the senate outcome.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2018, 10:15:31 am »

Iím not a huge fan of YouGov, but it does suggest what we already knew - these will all be close races
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2018, 10:17:54 am »

These polls have always been a bit odd, and FL definitely seems R-friendly given the recent t polls weíve seen, while AZ seems a bit D friendly, but Donnelly looks to be in trouble. Iíd say that the fundamentals of the states are winning out, which is why FL looks better for Democrats than before, while MO/IN look worse.
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2018, 10:18:17 am »

YouGov is a terrible pollster. Donít take seriously

yougov was very good in 2016 in FL
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2018, 10:19:29 am »

I wouldn't read too much into polls that were conducted over the past few days ...

Haha.

Anyway, these all look about right, although FL might be an outlier? Iíve never understood why people thought IN was Lean or even Likely D (@Nate Silver), and it should be obvious that AZ definitely isnít Lean R. Overall, not bad for Rs. I hope they poll Montana as well.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2018, 10:20:41 am »

I wouldn't read too much into polls that were conducted over the past few days ...

Haha.

Anyway, these all look about right, although FL might be an outlier? Iíve never understood why people thought IN was Lean or even Likely D (@Nate Silver), and it should be obvious that AZ definitely isnít Lean R. Overall, not bad for Rs. I hope they poll Montana as well.
THIS.
Only FL seems to be a bit an outlier.
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Umengus
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2018, 10:24:19 am »

YouGov is a terrible pollster. Donít take seriously

yougov was very good in 2016 in FL

and in Arizona also.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2018, 10:27:37 am »

YouGov is a terrible pollster. Donít take seriously

yougov was very good in 2016 in FL

and in Arizona also.

It would be crazy if Sinema outperformed Donnelly. Comes to show that in all but the most extraordinary circumstances, trying meet your opponents half way doesn't really work anymore.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2018, 10:34:47 am »

Word of caution: young voters make up too large a portion of the electorate in AZ and IN in these (15-17% under 30 lol...). Florida looks about right demographically (12%, which might still be high but isnít unreasonable).


Why would you think 12% might be too high for the 18-29 cohort?  If anything, it seems too low to me.
 
According to exit polls in Florida, 18-29 constituted 14% of the electorate in 2014 and 17% of the electorate in 2016.  And Florida is older than the average state.  I couldn't find exist polls in IN for 2016 or 2014, but in a 2012 exit poll, the IN electorate was 20% 18-29.

If anything, the IN poll is way too heavily weighted in favor of less educated voters.  In the 2012 exit poll, the Indiana population was 44% college graduates and 24% no college.  In this poll, it is 33% college grads and and 38% no college.  I have little reason to believe a midterm electorate will be much less educated than a general electorate.
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2018, 10:37:23 am »

FL looks like an outlier, AZ good, and IN a kick in the balls
Basically this.
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Virginia C
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2018, 10:38:15 am »

Word of caution: young voters make up too large a portion of the electorate in AZ and IN in these (15-17% under 30 lol...). Florida looks about right demographically (12%, which might still be high but isn’t unreasonable).


Why would you think 12% might be too high for the 18-29 cohort?  If anything, it seems too low to me.
 
According to exit polls in Florida, 18-29 constituted 14% of the electorate in 2014 and 17% of the electorate in 2016.  And Florida is older than the average state.  I couldn't find exist polls in IN for 2016 or 2014, but in a 2012 exit poll, the IN electorate was 20% 18-29.

If anything, the IN poll is way too heavily weighted in favor of less educated voters.  In the 2012 exit poll, the Indiana population was 44% college graduates and 24% no college.  In this poll, it is 33% college grads and and 38% no college.  I have little reason to believe a midterm electorate will be much less educated than a general electorate.

FWIW, the exit polls have long been known to over-sample college graduates.

That being said, midterm elections are exactly when college graduates would punch over their weight. Working class voters tend to experience a dropoff in midterms.
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Aurelio21
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2018, 10:43:43 am »


It would be crazy if Sinema outperformed Donnelly. Comes to show that in all but the most extraordinary circumstances, trying meet your opponents half way doesn't really work anymore.

This is quite oversimplfied. I can repeat myself over and over again, this is not a question of left vs right / Triangulation.

In Florida, due to the diversity the polarisation I fully agree on your views. There are few swing voters, this is about turning out the base. There are no overlapping constituencies.

For Arizona, Mrs Sinema is simply better fitting into the center-right libertarian ("Maverick") brand. Mrs McSally had to paint her as 120 % Trump accolyte which scares away these type voters which obviously are in a great majority.


A look into the crosstabs of the Indiana poll reveals a 10-15 % advantage of the GOP thus putting Mr Braun into the lead as he presides over the more homogenous coalition(Populist/protectionist Trump supporters and  Evangelicals) whereas Joe Donelly's base is quite fragmented. There are still classical WWC and minorities in his coalition, but also Romney/Clinton-voters. This poll gives a detailed picture (see Question No20) that the cultural conservative views keep the ROmney/Clinton voters breaking away to him massively. This is specific for Indiana, as well as the Tea-Party Libertarian who is siphoning away these voters from a potential Anti-Trump-Coalition.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2018, 10:48:43 am »

Are we really dissecting YouGov crosstabs guys
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